1. MVS Mainstem Forecast Model Update: NETMISS2 by Joel Asunskis, P.E. Hydraulic Engineer, St. Louis District Water Control U.S. Army Corps Of Engineers October 30, 2007 MVS Mainstem Forecast Model Update: NETMISS2 by Joel Asunskis, P.E. Hydraulic Engineer, St. Louis District Water Control U.S. Army Corps Of Engineers October 30, 2007

2. One Corps Serving the Armed Forces and the Nation St. Louis District  10 rivers  5 lock & dam sites  5 Corps lakes  750 miles of levees  92 flood control systems  416 miles of navigable channel  70 pumping plants  162 recreation areas  1 hydropower plant  10 rivers  5 lock & dam sites  5 Corps lakes  750 miles of levees  92 flood control systems  416 miles of navigable channel  70 pumping plants  162 recreation areas  1 hydropower plant

3. One Corps Serving the Armed Forces and the Nation MVS L&D Operations  MVS is unique in the way its Locks & Dams are operated within MVD Pool Instructions:  L&D 24: “Remain at 446.2 +/- 0.1”  L&D 25: “Lower to 429.7 +/- 0.1 by 1800” Special Conditions:  Rapidly changing flows at Pools 24 and 25 can require pools to go from maximum regulated to minimum regulated pool in less than a 24-hour period (449.0-445.5 and 434.0-429.7).  MVS is unique in the way its Locks & Dams are operated within MVD Pool Instructions:  L&D 24: “Remain at 446.2 +/- 0.1”  L&D 25: “Lower to 429.7 +/- 0.1 by 1800” Special Conditions:  Rapidly changing flows at Pools 24 and 25 can require pools to go from maximum regulated to minimum regulated pool in less than a 24-hour period (449.0-445.5 and 434.0-429.7).

4. One Corps Serving the Armed Forces and the Nation MVS L&D Operations  Mel Price is unique in the way it operates within MVS Last dam before open-river conditions Low Water:  At approximately 5ft. gate restrictions apply  At approximately 2ft. uWith approved deviation, change maximum regulated pool to 419.5. u24-hr monitoring of upstream locks and Missouri flows. uWater Control issues every gate change as needed 24-hrs/day. uCoordination with RIAC intensifies.  Mel Price is unique in the way it operates within MVS Last dam before open-river conditions Low Water:  At approximately 5ft. gate restrictions apply  At approximately 2ft. uWith approved deviation, change maximum regulated pool to 419.5. u24-hr monitoring of upstream locks and Missouri flows. uWater Control issues every gate change as needed 24-hrs/day. uCoordination with RIAC intensifies.

5. One Corps Serving the Armed Forces and the Nation Hinge Point Operation Play Hinge Point Video

6. One Corps Serving the Armed Forces and the Nation Goals Of NETMISS 2  Have a model that will allow us to see and analyze the effects of pool instructions on: Hinge Point Levels Tail Water Levels Reach profiles/stages  Take advantage of the new routing technologies and Algorithms (HEC-RAS 4.0 Beta)  To improve upon operational forecasting  Have a model that will allow us to see and analyze the effects of pool instructions on: Hinge Point Levels Tail Water Levels Reach profiles/stages  Take advantage of the new routing technologies and Algorithms (HEC-RAS 4.0 Beta)  To improve upon operational forecasting

7. One Corps Serving the Armed Forces and the Nation NETMISS2  A Visual Basic 6.0 application Utilizes the Unsteady Flow routing capabilities of HEC-RAS 4.0 Beta Data Storage in HEC-DSS  A Visual Basic 6.0 application Utilizes the Unsteady Flow routing capabilities of HEC-RAS 4.0 Beta Data Storage in HEC-DSS

8. One Corps Serving the Armed Forces and the Nation NETMISS2

9. One Corps Serving the Armed Forces and the Nation MVS System Extents Salt River Cuivre River Illinois River Meramec River Chain of Rocks Kaskaskia River Big Muddy River Ohio River Missouri River St. Louis Lock 27 Q

10. One Corps Serving the Armed Forces and the Nation MVS Model Extents Salt River Cuivre River Illinois River Meramec River Chain of Rocks Kaskaskia River Big Muddy River Ohio River Missouri River St. Louis L&D 24 Pool L&D 25 Pool MP L&D Pool Middle Mississippi/ Lower Model Lock 27 Q

11. One Corps Serving the Armed Forces and the Nation Boundary Conditions HEC-RAS Model Uniformly Distributed Lateral Inflow U/S BC Flow D/S BC Stage Tributary BC Flow

12. One Corps Serving the Armed Forces and the Nation Input

13. One Corps Serving the Armed Forces and the Nation Model Input

14. One Corps Serving the Armed Forces and the Nation L&D 24 Input

15. One Corps Serving the Armed Forces and the Nation Model Input

16. One Corps Serving the Armed Forces and the Nation L&D 24 Pool Estimate

17. One Corps Serving the Armed Forces and the Nation Open River Rating Curve Shift

18. One Corps Serving the Armed Forces and the Nation Guide Curve Editor

19. One Corps Serving the Armed Forces and the Nation Open River Rating Curve Editor

20. One Corps Serving the Armed Forces and the Nation Analysis Analysis and Model Execution

21. One Corps Serving the Armed Forces and the Nation HEC-RAS Execution

22. One Corps Serving the Armed Forces and the Nation Calibration Mode

23. One Corps Serving the Armed Forces and the Nation N-Factor Managment  In HEC-RAS 4.0 there is a limit in the number of flow/n-factor adjustments Restricted to 30 values Requires a larger flow interval between factors for a wide range of model operation  NETMISS2 has a n-Factor repository for each model that expands allows each model to have up to 256 intervals. Tribs –>600 – 1000 cfs Illinois –>1000 cfs Missouri –>1000 cfs Upper Mississippi –> 5000 cfs Lower Mississippi –> 5000 cfs  In HEC-RAS 4.0 there is a limit in the number of flow/n-factor adjustments Restricted to 30 values Requires a larger flow interval between factors for a wide range of model operation  NETMISS2 has a n-Factor repository for each model that expands allows each model to have up to 256 intervals. Tribs –>600 – 1000 cfs Illinois –>1000 cfs Missouri –>1000 cfs Upper Mississippi –> 5000 cfs Lower Mississippi –> 5000 cfs

24. One Corps Serving the Armed Forces and the Nation N-Factor Management Checks Flow range RAS Time Window Goes to Netmiss2 N-Factor Repository and Gathers n-factors based on the 30 factor limit Places 30 Factors in model Plan File for Model execution and calibration When n-Factors change in the model the changes are sent to the Netmiss2 n-Factor repository and the repository is updated MODEL EXECUTION

25. One Corps Serving the Armed Forces and the Nation Hinge Point Check And Forecasting

26. One Corps Serving the Armed Forces and the Nation Hinge Point Analysis Window

27. One Corps Serving the Armed Forces and the Nation Open River Balancing 1. Approximate OR Level With Rating Curve – Model Computes L&D 24 Q Q Q 2. Simulate Downstream Model Profile – Compute D/S TW Level TW Swell Head 3. (TW + Drawdown) to find new Target L&D 24 Pool PL 4. Use New Target Pool To Compute new Q Q PL

28. One Corps Serving the Armed Forces and the Nation O O Open River and TW Balancing

29. One Corps Serving the Armed Forces and the Nation Forecast Report

30. One Corps Serving the Armed Forces and the Nation Forecast Report

31. One Corps Serving the Armed Forces and the Nation Current Status of NETMISS 2  Have a model that will allow us to see and analyze the effects of pool instructions on: Hinge Point Levels Tail Water Levels Reach profiles/stages  On-going evaluation of NETMISS 2 versus current operational forecast model.  Have a model that will allow us to see and analyze the effects of pool instructions on: Hinge Point Levels Tail Water Levels Reach profiles/stages  On-going evaluation of NETMISS 2 versus current operational forecast model.