1. OVERVIEW OF THE DEVELOPMENT OF THE GECAFS PROJECT Jaiwante Samsoondar

2. OVERVIEW OF THE CARIBBEAN FOOD SYSYEM Production of traditional export crops (bananas, sugar, coffee, cocoa and rice)  PRIORITY Production of non traditional crops for domestic and regional consumption (root crops, vegetables and fruits) High input, labor intensive agriculture Minimal usage of irrigation techniques, high dependence on rainfed agriculture Agriculture practiced on marginal lands Limited livestock production Some level of self sufficiency in fish provision

3. EFFECTS OF AGRICULTURAL PRODUCTION ON THE ENVIRONMENT High input agriculture leading to chemical build up in the soils, eutrophication of rivers, water quality degradation Production on marginal lands, deforestation leading to high incidences of soil erosion, flash flooding, sedimentation in rivers Micro-climate changes - changing soil pH, soil microbe interaction etc Loss of biodiversity due to mono-cropping production system Increase methane emission by livestock

4. FOOD PROVISION IN THE CARIBBEAN Production=f (yield, area) Availability=f (production, distribution) Access=f (availability, socioeconomic potential [e.g. affordability], & physiological potential [e.g.nutritional quality]) Provision = f (production, availability, access)

5. FOOD PRODUCTION Crop production traditional export crops (banana, sugar etc) domestic/regional production (root crops, vegetables and fruits) Fisheries local consumption and export Livestock large poultry industry devloping small ruminant industry Agro- procecssing large scale processing of traditionally exported crops (sugar and rice) processing for non traditional exports (fish, fruits and veg, etc) cottage industries

6. FOOD AVAILABILITY Revenue generation from exports of traditional crops, service, tourism, and manufacturing High imports of cereals and cereals preparation; meat and meat preparation; dairy products and eggs; and fruits and vegetables - Imports are mainly from North American and European countries Increased food availability in the region over the past 25 years due to the influx of cheaper imports Domestic production affected by seasonality (dependence on rainfed agriculture) further increasing dependence on imports Limited agroprocessing in the region Lack of structured food storage systems/absence of food reserves

7. FOOD ACCESS The limiting factor to food access in the region is the economic and physiological potential of people to purchase food. The urban poor are the ones likely not to have the purchasing power to access food The rural areas have limited purchasing capacity and nutritional security becomes a more critical problem to these people

8. Global Environmental Change Changes caused or strongly influenced by human activities Land cover & soils Atmospheric composition Climate variability & means Water availability & quality Nitrogen availability & cycling Biodiversity Sea currents & salinity Sea level

9. FEATURES OF CLIMATE CHANGE The IPCC has reported that by the year 2100: Rise in global average surface temperature of 1.4 - 5.8°C relative to 1990 Rise in sea level by 0.09-0.88m Changes in variability, frequency and intensity of extreme climate events

10. SYSTEMS THAT CAN LEAD TO EXTREME WEATHER EVENTS IN THE CARIBBEAN Tropical depressions, storms and hurricanes - intense and high volume rainfall, strong winds and rough seas Tropical waves - spawn tropical storms and hurricanes, potential to cause intense rainfall and high sea swells Inter tropical convergence Zone (ITCZ) - Potential to cause intense rainfall and often interacts with tropical waves Upper level Troughs - results in explosive cloud development and intense rainfall Cold front intrusion - results in rainfall in the eastern Caribbean during the dry season El Niño related droughts

11. SOME PROJECTED IMPACTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE Crops reduction in crop yields reduced water availability salt water intrusion Livestock increased heat stress related deaths Fisheries habitat degradation fluctuations in fish abundance changes in upwelling rates

12. PROGRESS ON REGIONALISING GCMs Regional GCMs have grids which are too large for small islands and as such climates of small islands are being predicted to change in the same way as the surrounding oceans The Climate Studies Group, University of the West Indies, Mona (CSGM) has a project involving dynamic downscaling using regional climate models (RSM, MM5 derivatives. This project is being done in conjunction with the international research Institute for Climate Prediction and with MACC/CPACC

13. REGIONAL POLICY PRIORITIES Food Security Higher levels of food self sufficiency Increased agricultural productivity Increased diversification of agricultural production, processing and export Trade Policy and Competitiveness Food Safety Rural Employment/ Poverty Alleviation Sustainability of the food and agricultural sector and rural communities

14. ONGOING WORK ON CLIMATE CHANGE IN THE REGION 1. Caribbean Planning for Adaptation to Global Climate Change (CPACC) which began in April 1997, and it’s follow-up Caribbean Mainstreaming Adaptation to Climate Change (CMACC). 2. Development of the Caribbean Community Climate Change Centre 3. University of the West Indies, Mona

15. GECAFS PROJECT DEVELOPMENT 1. GECAFS Caribbean Food Systems “Issue Identification” Workshop, Trinidad, April 22 – 23 2002; and 2. “Developing a Research Agenda for the Caribbean Food System to respond to Global Climate Changes.” Trinidad, 19-20 September, 2002

16. WHAT MAKES THE GECAFS PROJECT?  Help develop policy at regional level, based on an interdisciplinary approach  Clearly identify, and demonstrate end-user involvement in all stages  Have a clear GEC dimension  Include all 3 GECAFS Themes with a strong design for “internal” integration  Include capacity development  Identify, build upon and add value to suitable ongoing regional research (e.g. CPACC, UWI etc)

17. APRIL WORKSHOP Purpose: To identify main policy-related issues for a GECAFS study on the Caribbean Food System as a key step in developing detailed research plans Objectives:  Establish clear priorities for policy-relevant research issues within the GECAFS framework  Identify principal potential collaborators  Identify research issues that could contribute to existing and planned regional programmes  Design follow-up meeting and draw-up preliminary invitee list

18. APRIL WORKSHOP (cont’d) Outcomes: Sensitization - Caribbean scientists to GECAFS GECAFS Team to the Caribbean Food System Identification of priority policy issues - note that no policies specific to GEC Identified key players and collaborators in assisting with the development of the GECAFS project

19. SEPTEMBER WORKSHOP Purpose: Review key Climate Change impacts research and identify critical research topics

20. SEPTEMBER WORKSHOP (cont’d) Outcomes: 1.Recognition that GEC was broader than GCC and that discussions should be held in that context 2. Recognition that the GECAFS project has to incorporate all three science team and a MULTI disciplinary approach is needed 3. Development of a project under the GECAFS principles

21. PROJECT DEVELOPMENT Charge to working groups:.What more do we need to know about biophysical and socio-economic impacts of GEC on food systems?.What are the adaptation possibilities for crops, fish and livestock to cope with GEC scenarios?.What do we need to know about the biophysical and socio- economic consequences of those adaptations? Scenarios.Climate change and change in variability.50 cm sea level rise by 2100 50% loss of export revenue

22. PROJECT DEVELOPMENT (cont’d) Recognised that work still need to be done on the issue of climate change. Recommendations made include the need for better projections of:  Temp trends  Hurricanes and severe storms  ENSO teleconnections and intra-regional variability  Length and timing of Growing season (rainfall)

23. PROJECT DEVELOPMENT (cont’d) The components of the GECAFS project are:.Impacts and vulnerability research.Adaptation research/possibilities.Consequence research

24. PROJECT DEVELOPMENT (cont’d) Impacts and Vulnerability Research Questions to be asked are: -What are we going to eat? -How are we going to make money? -How are we going to manage change? -What is the expected loss in biodiversity? -What is the expected loss in productivity? Specific research areas are: Livestock Pasture composition and quality, Animal health (Pest & Disease) Animal productivity

25. PROJECT DEVELOPMENT (cont’d) Arable (crops, veg, fruit) Yield of Cropping systems, especially pest and disease Fisheries (shell, fin and fresh water) Migration (immigration/emigration): distribution, Disease related to temperature and climate change - induced salinity, Species composition Food quality Nutritional value Extreme weather events Disruptive effects of hurricanes and other regional extreme weather events on food systems

26. PROJECT DEVELOPMENT (cont’d) Adaptation Research/Possibilities Options available are: -Sensitisation/retooling -New commodities -Change consumption patterns -Revision of policy and legislation e.g. drought resistant varieties/breeds -Increase availability and access to water -Greater dependence on foreign aid -Do nothing?

27. PROJECT DEVELOPMENT (cont’d) Specific adaptation research areas are: Livestock Use of alternative species (nutritional quality, social acceptability, environmental suitability), High nutrient-density pasture (quality) Improved animal housing using local tech and materials, Pest & Disease management Arable Alternative species and cropping systems (social acceptability, environment suitability), Water management (conservation, irrigation & water pricing, grey water)

28. PROJECT DEVELOPMENT (cont’d) Fisheries Technical adaptation (fishing gears, boat type etc), Social acceptability of other species, Aquaculture, mariculture Artificial reefs, Capacity building to exploit the Exclusive Economic Zones General Areas All “agronomic options” need to be underpinned by research on Policy issues: Markets, Incentives, Subsidies, Taxes, Trade agreements Developing local raw materials for agroprocessing (e.g. milk)

29. PROJECT DEVELOPMENT (cont’d) General Areas(cont’d) Regional education and information policies using participatory approaches Increase export revenue to be able to buy more food from outside region Tourism (niche marketing) Traditional cash crops (banana, sugar) Alternative cash crops (livestock, prawns, spices…) Strengthening regional trade arrangement and regional institutions

30. PROJECT DEVELOPMENT (cont’d) Consequences Research Financial costs of adaptation: (need money up front): credit institutions; How to introduce innovative adaptations based on low financial needs Increased marginalisation of vulnerable sections of society (on e.g. small holder arable growers, seine fishers) Coastal Zone Management (e.g. Impacts of Agribusiness runoff on reefs) Impacts of new species and cropping systems on human diet and environment Diversification Socio-economic impacts of increasing internal production

31. PROJECT DEVELOPMENT (cont’d) Local markets, local agroprocessing, Changes to Micro climate (hectare level) of e.g. draining mangrove swamp for aquaculture) Environmental impacts of increasing tourism sector waste; marine access and biodiversity; env impact of alternative commodities opportunities (buff cheese) Socio-economic consequences of strengthening regional institutions Loss of independence