1. Office for Harmonization in the Internal Market (Trade Marks and Designs) WWW.OAMI.EUROPA.EU An Inside Look on Opposition … and the Interaction Effects with the Outside World Marc RICHTER – QMD / PMU (OHIM) Workshop Economic Analysis of Trade Marks and Brands Alicante, Spain, June 2008

2. Office for Harmonization in the Internal Market (Trade Marks and Designs) Table of Contents OHIM, QMD and PMU OHIM / Market interaction An example: Opposition Forecast Whats next?

3. Office for Harmonization in the Internal Market (Trade Marks and Designs) OHIM, QMD and PMU The Acronyms –OHIM:Office for Harmonization in the Internal Market (aka the Office) –QMD:Quality Management Department –PMU:Performance Management Unit The Structure OHIM (President Wubbo de Boer) QMD (Director Juan Ramón Rubio) Service 1 (Head of Service Andrea di Carlo) Performance Management Unit –René Havermans –Luis Miguel López Santos –Marc Richter Service 2 (Head of Service Rainer Tretter)

4. Office for Harmonization in the Internal Market (Trade Marks and Designs) OHIM, QMD and PMU QMD Mission...contribute to the efficient management of the Office's resources and to maximise clients' satisfaction. PMU Mission Offer the OHIM, and in particular its Management, an effective statistical […] reporting tool which assists […] decision making. Offer the OHIM and particularly its senior and middle managers: –quantitative analysis of main processes, […] proposing and maintaining […] performance indicators […] –detection and explanation of deviations and anomalies in the production flows or in defined quality standards […] to establish corrective actions. –[…] analysis of the impact changes in the processes, technologies or in user behaviour may have on production flows and defined quality standards. Develop […] an OHIM Work Plan [with] quantifiable objectives for all the Offices activities […]

5. Office for Harmonization in the Internal Market (Trade Marks and Designs) A word on statistics 1770, science dealing with data about the condition of a state or community, from Ger. Statistik, popularized and perhaps coined by Ger. political scientist Gottfried Aschenwall (1719-72) in his Vorbereitung zur Staatswissenschaft (1748), from Mod.L. statisticum (collegium) (lecture course on) state affairs, from It. statista one skilled in statecraft, from L. status (see state (n.1)). […] Source: www.etymonline.com OHIM Statistics and Reporting 300+ reports maintained by PMU alone Analyses based exclusively on descriptive statistics in 99 % of the cases Upcoming:New Core Business System EUROMARC++ Report migration, indicator consolidation, error margin quantification where applicable OHIM, QMD and PMU

6. Office for Harmonization in the Internal Market (Trade Marks and Designs) OHIM, QMD and PMU OHIM Incoming Business – Community Trade Mark (CTM) filings

7. Office for Harmonization in the Internal Market (Trade Marks and Designs) OHIM, QMD and PMU OHIM Incoming Business – Registered Community Design (RCD) filings

8. Office for Harmonization in the Internal Market (Trade Marks and Designs) OHIM / Market interaction

9. Office for Harmonization in the Internal Market (Trade Marks and Designs) OHIM / Market interaction CTM / RCD Decisions Standards Fees CTM / RCD Filings Reactions Attitude Former PMU boundary Policy Communication model (PMU Internal Draft)

10. Office for Harmonization in the Internal Market (Trade Marks and Designs) OHIM / Market interaction 2001: CTM e-filing & CTM online From 2003: e-business strategy –RCD e-filing & RCD online –E-communication –Online access to files –My Page… 2005: Fee reduction for e-filing 2007: Future Working Methods for the 2010 horizon

11. Office for Harmonization in the Internal Market (Trade Marks and Designs) OHIM / Market interaction 2007:Potential loophole in OHIM policies permits non-payment exploit under certain circumstances 2008:Policy loophole to be closed in the medium term, exploiters to be warned and/or penalised in the short term

12. Office for Harmonization in the Internal Market (Trade Marks and Designs) An Example: Opposition Forecast

13. Office for Harmonization in the Internal Market (Trade Marks and Designs) Scope of Analysis Pre-analysis Trigger:A CTM Application is published Process Trigger:One (or more) Oppositions are received (OPP-REC) Process Flow:Standardised, but with high case-by-case variance due to individual case difficulty, parties involved etc. Process End:EUROMARC Status 262: Decision to be taken The hard part of work for the Office Processual delays An Example: Opposition Forecast In (OPP REC) Out (St. 262)

14. Office for Harmonization in the Internal Market (Trade Marks and Designs) An Example: Opposition Forecast

15. Office for Harmonization in the Internal Market (Trade Marks and Designs) An Example: Opposition Forecast

16. Office for Harmonization in the Internal Market (Trade Marks and Designs) An Example: Opposition Forecast

17. Office for Harmonization in the Internal Market (Trade Marks and Designs) An Example: Opposition Forecast

18. Office for Harmonization in the Internal Market (Trade Marks and Designs) An Example: Opposition Forecast Year 3 after OPP- REC

19. Office for Harmonization in the Internal Market (Trade Marks and Designs) Misleading data in PMU report: At time of first analysis, 262 ratios seemed to be approx. constant A ratio forecast approach shows the real progression, along with a (possible) behavioral change: 2004: 33.6 % 2003: 32.8 % 2002: 32.3 % An Example: Opposition Forecast t [M] r [%]

20. Office for Harmonization in the Internal Market (Trade Marks and Designs) An Example: Opposition Forecast 2006 262 ratio growth forecast (for validation purposes, conservative error estimates) 2002-OPPs: 29.00 % 30.75 % 1.75 % (± 0.25 %) 2003-OPPs: 27.00 % 30.50 % 3.50 % (± 0.50 %) 2004-OPPs: 17.00 % 28.00 % 11.00 % (± 2.00 %) 2005-OPPs: 1.00 % 18.00 % 17.00 % (± 2.00 %) 2006-OPPs: 0.00 % 1.25 % 1.25 % (± 0.50 %)

21. Office for Harmonization in the Internal Market (Trade Marks and Designs) An Example: Opposition Forecast 2006 262 ratio growth forecast (for validation purposes) 2002-OPPs: 1.75 % (± 0.25 %) of 9,861 OPPs 173 (± 25) 2003-OPPs: 3.50 % (± 0.50 %) of 9,986 OPPs 350 (± 50) 2004-OPPs: 11.00 % (± 2.00 %) of 10,801 OPPs 1188 (± 216) 2005-OPPs: 17.00 % (± 2.00 %) of 17,493 OPPs 2974 (± 350) 2006-OPPs: 1.25 % (± 0.50 %) of 14,000 (± 5,000) OPPs 175 (± 97) 4860 (± 426 / 8.8%) Result 2006: 5192 (+ 6.8%) Linear propagation of uncertainty

22. Office for Harmonization in the Internal Market (Trade Marks and Designs) An Example: Opposition Forecast 2007 262 ratio growth forecast (for validation purposes, conservative error estimates) 2003-OPPs: 31.00 % 33.00 % 2.00 % (± 0.25 %) 2004-OPPs: 29.00 % 34.00 % 5.00 % (± 0.50 %) 2005-OPPs: 17.50 % 29.00 % 11.50 % (± 1.50 %) 2006-OPPs: 1.00 % 21.00 % 20.00 % (± 2.00 %) 2007-OPPs: 0.00 % 1.25 % 1.25 % (± 0.50 %)

23. Office for Harmonization in the Internal Market (Trade Marks and Designs) An Example: Opposition Forecast 2007 262 ratio growth forecast (for validation purposes) 2003-OPPs: 2.00 % (± 0.25 %) of 9,986 OPPs 200 (± 25) 2004-OPPs: 5.00 % (± 0.50 %) of 10,801 OPPs 540 (± 54) 2005-OPPs: 11.50 % (± 1.50 %) of 17,493 OPPs 2012 (± 262) 2006-OPPs: 20.00 % (± 2.00 %) of 14,223 OPPs 2845 (± 284) 2007-OPPs: 1.25 % (± 0.50 %) of 15,500 (± 2500) OPPs 194 (± 84) 5791 (± 400 / 6.9%) Result 2007: 6077 (+ 4.9%)

24. Office for Harmonization in the Internal Market (Trade Marks and Designs) An Example: Opposition Forecast 2008 262 ratio growth forecast 2004-OPPs: 33.50 % 35.50 % 2.00 % (± 0.25 %) 2005-OPPs: 29.75 % 33.50 % 3.75 % (± 0.50 %) 2006-OPPs: 21.00 % 32.00 % 11.00 % (± 1.50 %) 2007-OPPs: 2.00 % 23.00 % 21.00 % (± 2.00 %) 2008-OPPs: 0.00 % 1.25 % 1.25 % (± 0.50 %)

25. Office for Harmonization in the Internal Market (Trade Marks and Designs) An Example: Opposition Forecast 2008 262 ratio growth forecast 2004-OPPs: 2.00 % (± 0.25 %) of 10,801 OPPs 216 (± 27) 2005-OPPs: 3.75 % (± 0.50 %) of 17,493 OPPs 656 (± 87) 2006-OPPs: 11.00 % (± 1.50 %) of 14,223 OPPs 1565 (± 213) 2007-OPPs: 21.00 % (± 2.00 %) of 16,633 OPPs 3493 (± 333) 2008-OPPs: 1.25 % (± 0.50 %) of 20,600 (± 3500) OPPs 258 (± 113) 6188 (± 421 / 6.8%) Applying an empiric correction factor: 6485 ( 104.8 %)

26. Office for Harmonization in the Internal Market (Trade Marks and Designs) An Example: Opposition Forecast Whats the 262 arrival ratio expectation for todays oppositions?

27. Office for Harmonization in the Internal Market (Trade Marks and Designs) An Example: Opposition Forecast Whats the 262 arrival ratio expectation for todays oppositions? Gap: Cases in progress or closed w/o decision on substance

28. Office for Harmonization in the Internal Market (Trade Marks and Designs) Whats next?

29. Office for Harmonization in the Internal Market (Trade Marks and Designs) Whats next? PMUs medium to long term goals Automating more standard analyses Better consideration of cause-and-effect chains –Even more visualisation and process orientation –More consideration of the OHIM / Market interaction Generally:Collaboration and exchange Attitude of constant improvement Specifically:All-out attack on Oppositions Classifications of typical behaviour

30. Office for Harmonization in the Internal Market (Trade Marks and Designs) Whats next? Origin (Paper, WIPO. e-file) Nationality Language Country Opponent Representative? CTMOPP Size #marks Specialty ClassesGroundsEarlier rights Industry Type (word,fig…) Licencee??? Evolution Wins Opps Ratios Surveillance letter? Settlements Duration Examiner(s) Admissibility Cooling-off Dossier Adversarial part Proof of use Decisionmaking Quality Abuse? Appeal? Numbers Multis Complaint? USS? Behaviour if loser? Behaviour if opposed? Seasonality Applicant Dept/Serv Experience P/S? Data Domain Allocation Map (PMU Internal Draft)

31. Office for Harmonization in the Internal Market (Trade Marks and Designs) Whats next? Opposition attack – Iterative Methodology (PMU Internal Draft) –Brainstorming to maps –Maps as stimulus to generate (additional) questions –Pivoting checklists for explorative analysis (more questions) –Questions to clusters –Clusters to (testable) hypotheses –Test results to models –Models to forecast / decision support systems

32. Office for Harmonization in the Internal Market (Trade Marks and Designs) WWW.OAMI.EUROPA.EU Information: (+ 34) 965 13 9100 (switchboard) (+ 34) 965 13 8711 (personal extension) (+ 34) 965 13 9143 (QMD fax) Marc.RICHTER@oami.europa.eu Marc Richter Office for Harmonization in the Internal Market (Trade Marks and Designs) Avenida de Europa, 4 E-03008 Alicante SPAIN