1. REGIONAL INFRASTRUCTURE FORESIGHT A TECHNOLOGY USER ORIENTED FORESIGHT-APPROACH FOR COLLECTIVE AND ORGANIZATIONAL LEARNING ABOUT THE NEED FOR NEW TECHNOLOGIES Eckhard Störmer, Bernhard Truffer Eawag Cirus Third International Seville Conference on Future-Oriented Technology Analysis (FTA): Impacts and implications for policy and decision-making 16th- 17th October 2008

2. 1. Overview Learning gaps in infrastructure planning RIF Method Results Outlook Overview Concepts Method Results Outlook

3. 2. Learning gaps in infrastructure sectors Infrastructure sectors have strong regimes Large technical systems Localized, technocratic decision procedures Mutual invisibility between users and operators Strong tendencies for learning gaps Short sighted planning routines Blinding out uncertainties in context conditions Narrowing the search space for alternatives Optimizing for single goals (costs, acceptance) Path-dependencies are reinforced Transitions ahead? Bring in uncertainty, ambivalence and radical alternatives Overview Concepts Method Results Outlook

4. 3. The RIF method Overview Concepts Method Results Outlook Constructive principles Enlarge range of participants Reference points of decision in 25 to 35 years Maximize uncertainties in context conditions Sort out strategic alternatives (not optimal solutions) Multiple goals and value perspectives From a technocratic to a discursive, participative mode of strategic planning (Regional Infrastructure Foresight) Application contexts Three typical organizations in sanitation in CH Openness to new approaches

5. Method structure RIF-WS 1 RIF-WS 2 Final Presen- tation RIF team Core team Stake- holders Scenario development Assessment Presentation of strategy Situation and actor analysis Strategic implications Decision makers Scenarios Strategic plan 1 2 3 4 01 2 3 Rankings months 0 5 7 9 Options, Goals Products Process Actors Activities

6. Analytical dimensions strategicplan context key factors scenarios options levers strategic options Overview Concepts Method Results Outlook Inputs Context factors Options Values Outputs Strategy plans

7. Selected case studies Klettgau (S) Neugut (Z) Kiesental (B)

8. 4. Results Overview Concepts Method Results Outlook Decision elements constructed by participants B: 4 Scenarios, 3 options S: 4 Scenarios, 4 options Z: 3 Scenarios, 4 options Assessed from citizens and industrys perspective 22 rankings of options (11 scenarios by virtual citizens and industry representatives) 80 evaluations of option/scenario pairs (relative to expected preferences of future citizens and industry) 40 evaluations of option/scenario pairs (considering sustainability goals in a balanced way)

9. Suitability vs. conflicts (all cases, stakeholder perspectives) Implement Dont consider Consider opportunities Consider risks Address conflict positive antagonistic negative ambivalent 1 2 3 4 01 2 3 S Cdez Z AERZ B Idec S Adez S Bdez S CLig Z BGlatt Z BKern Z CKern B IVLig S Ainf Z AGlatt B ILig B IIILig S Dfus S Binf B IVdec S Ddez S BLig Z AKern B IIIZen S ALig Z CGlatt Z BERZ B IIdec S Dinf S DLig B IIZen Z CERZ B IIIdec B IILig S Cfus S Cinf Z AMU B IZen B IVZen S Bfus S Afus Z BMU Z CMU Average of evaluations from citizens and industry Difference in evaluation between citizens and industry Overview Concepts Method Results Outlook

10. Ranking of options in Kiesental (B) Centralization Incremental change Radical change positive antagonistic negative ambivalent 1 2 3 4 01 2 3 S Cdez Z AERZ B Idec S Adez S Bdez S CLig Z BGlatt Z BKern Z CKern B IVLig S Ainf Z AGlatt B ILig B IIILig S Dfus S Binf B IVdec S Ddez S BLig Z AKern B IIIZen S ALig Z CGlatt Z BERZ B IIdec S Dinf S DLig B IIZen Z CERZ B IIIdec B IILig S Cfus S Cinf Z AMU B IZen B IVZen S Bfus S Afus Z BMU Z CMU Average of evaluations from citizens and industry Difference in evaluation between citizens and industry Overview Concepts Method Results Outlook

11. Multi-Utility Regional concentration Incremental system change Radical system change 1 2 3 4 0 1 2 3 Neugut (Z) Average of evaluations from citizens and industry Difference in evaluation between citizens and industry 1 2 3 4 01 2 3 Klettgau (S) Average of evaluations from citizens and industry Difference in evaluation between citizens and industry 1 2 3 4 01 2 3 Kiesental (B) Average of evaluations from citizens and industry Difference in evaluation between citizens and industry Ranking of options in all three cases Overview Concepts Method Results Outlook

12. Sustanaibility deficits ? Overview Concepts Method Results Outlook Comparing stakeholders with balanced assessment 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 Average rating citizens and Industry Rating core team Kiesental (B) 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 Average rating citizens and Industry Rating core team Klettgau (S) 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 Average rating citizens and Industry Rating core team Neugut (Z)

13. Outcomes Overview Concepts Method Results Outlook Solutions preferred before the RIF process S: Incremental improvement of existing plant B: Forced regional merger (techn. and organ.) Z: Stop regional growth (!) Strategies considered after RIF process S: Radically new options (dissolve WWTP!) B: Confirmation but identification of potential conflicts and sustainability deficits Z: More pronounced interaction with customers (esp. Industry) largely invisible before and support of pro-active strategy Process evaluation High level of satisfaction More reflexive implementation processes

14. 5. Outlook: Learning effects Overview Concepts Method Results Outlook Learning about Understanding of complex urban water management systems Uncertainties of framework conditions Stakeholders value systems and political discourses Methods in foresight sustainability assessment Alternatives to business as usual and their outcomes and impacts Necessary preconditions to overcome path dependencies