1. AREP GURME Section 2 Executive Overview

2. AREP GURME 2 Section 2 – Executive Overview Topics Why forecast air quality? What is needed? About the course

3. AREP GURME 3 Section 2 – Executive Overview Why forecast air quality? Pollutants originate from Combustion of fossil fuels and organic matter Evaporation of petroleum products or compounds used in commercial products, services, and manufacturing Natural production of smoke from fires, dust from strong winds, and emissions from the biosphere and geosphere

4. AREP GURME 4 Section 2 – Executive Overview Why forecast air quality? World Health Organization: Every year 1.5 billion urbanites breathe air that exceeds WHO standards; Well over 800,000 deaths each year due to urban air pollution; Costs: World health costs of urban air pollution are estimated to approach US$1 billion per year. In developing countries the health effects of air pollution cost between 5% - 20% of GDP.

5. AREP GURME 5 Section 2 – Executive Overview Why forecast air quality? Pollutants of concern SO 2 Sulfur Dioxide PMParticulate Matter HC Hydrocarbon Compounds NO 2 Nitrogen Dioxide O3O3 Ozone COCarbon Monoxide AbbreviationPollutant

6. AREP GURME 6 Section 2 – Executive Overview Schwartz et al., 1992 Why forecast air quality? Health Effects: Deaths associated with PM concentrations

7. AREP GURME 7 Section 2 – Executive Overview Why forecast air quality? Health Effects: Geneva Steel Mill: The Utah Valley Iron107.250.2117.8 Copper163.350.5327.0 Zinc264.895.5113.2 Lead91.730.5122.2 Nickel18.626.918.6 Concentration (  g/g) Jan-Mar 1986 (open) Jan-Mar 1987 (closed) Jan-Mar 1988 (open)

8. AREP GURME 8 Section 2 – Executive Overview Health Effects: Particulate Matter concentrations Health: Monthly asthma admissions Why forecast air quality?

9. AREP GURME 9 Section 2 – Executive Overview Why forecast air quality? How are forecasts used: Protect public health Operate emissions reduction programs Conduct special monitoring

10. AREP GURME 10 Section 2 – Executive Overview Age of Forecasting Program (years) 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10+ Limited data Limited experience and understanding One forecasting tool/technique Modest accuracy Good historical data set Good understanding Modest experience Several forecasting tools/techniques Higher accuracy Excellent historical data set Detailed understanding Extensive experience Many forecasting tools/techniques Highest accuracy Evolution of a Forecasting Program

11. AREP GURME 11 Section 2 – Executive Overview What is needed? 1. Air quality problem Most large & mega cities have air pollution

12. AREP GURME 12 Section 2 – Executive Overview What is needed? 2. Air quality monitoring program Monitor network Historical data Real-time monitoring system

13. AREP GURME 13 Section 2 – Executive Overview What is needed? 3. Understanding the interactions Determine how meteorological processes influence air pollution in an area Forecast the processes that affect air quality, then predict the air quality

14. AREP GURME 14 Section 2 – Executive Overview What is needed? 4. Develop forecasting methods Simple to complex Statistical, numerical models, experience More tools = more accurate forecast Ozone (Low–High) Moderate to High Moderate to Low Temp low Temp high WS - strong Moderate High Low WS - calm WS -light

15. AREP GURME 15 Section 2 – Executive Overview What is needed? 5. Developing a program Need for an AQ Forecast Develop a Program Operate the Program Revise the Program Data Collection Forecast Preparation Forecast Communication

16. AREP GURME 16 Section 2 – Executive Overview Overview of Course Course Content: Background Introduction and Overview of Course What Are We Forecasting? How Are Forecasts Used? Health Effects Understanding Chemical Aspects of Air Pollution Pollutant Monitoring Pollutant Lifecycles and Trends Air Pollution Meteorology Case Studies of Episodes Developing a program Air Quality Forecasting Tools Developing a Forecasting Program Daily Air Quality Forecast Operations