1. DROUGHT MONITORING IN SOUTHERN AFRICA DEVELOPMENT COMMUNITY
International Workshop on Climate and Land Degradation
Lamgando Conference Hall, Impala Hotel,
ARUSHA, United Republic of Tanzania, December 2006
Bradwell J. Garanganga
SADC DROUGHT MONITORING CENTRE
e.mail:
Website:
Lusaka, Zambia 1-5 September 2003

2. SADC Drought Monitoring Centre
OBJECTIVES
Lusaka, Zambia 1-5 September 2003

3. Presentation Format Introduction History of the SADC DMC
Role of the SADC DMC
Tools / Products
Climate monitoring
Climate Prediction
Attachments/ Capacity building
Climate Outlook Fora, brief
Challenges & Opportunities
Planned activities
Summary

4. Location of SADC member countries

5. INTRODUCTION
The Drought Monitoring Centre (DMC) is an institution of Southern African Development Community (SADC) comprising 14 member states with well over 220 million inhabitants.
The SADC countries experience recurrent climatic extremes such as droughts, floods, tropical cyclones, which often result in negative impacts such as land degradation
The region is also susceptible to epidemiological diseases such as malaria and cholera that are influenced by climatic factors.
Extreme climate variation impact negatively socio-economic development of the Member States.

6. IMPACTS
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7. HISTORICAL BACKGROUND
Established in 1989/90 together with now ICPAC by African Gvts with WMO as Executing Agency. Together responsible for 22 countries of Eastern and Southern Africa
Central objective to have regional approaches in mitigating adverse climate impacts to socioeconomic developments.
Initial funding from UNDP
Next funding from the Belgian Government, with a condition that SADC gradually takes over the funding of DMC Harare.
Since April 2002, core activities are funded by SADC.
However, programme activities are still being funded by cooperating partners:WMO, USAID, NOAA and others.

8. ROLE OF THE SADC DMC
1) OBJECTIVE
To contribute to mitigation of adverse impacts of extreme climate variations on sustainable socioeconomic development.
This is achieved through the monitoring of near real-time climatic trends and generating medium-range (10-14 days) and long-range climate outlook products on monthly and seasonal (3-6 months) timescales.
These products are disseminated in timely manner to the communities of the sub-region principally through the NMHSs, regional organizations, and also directly through services to various users who include media agencies. Our products are readily available on our website: e.mail address is:

9. The provision of early warning for the formulation of appropriate strategies to combat the adverse effects of climate extremes affords greater opportunity to decision-makers for development of prudent plans for mitigating the negative impacts on sustainable socio-economic development.
Since, establishment, the center has played an important and central role in providing the sub-region with weather and climate advisories and more importantly, timely early warning on drought, floods and other extreme climate events

10. DMC Angola Botswana Lesotho Malawi PRODUCT DISSEMINATION Mauritius
SADC
NMHSs
Angola
Botswana
Congo (DRC)
Lesotho
Malawi
Mauritius
Mozambique
Namibia
Seychelles
South Africa
Swaziland
Tanzania
Zambia
Zimbabwe
Data
processing
&
archiving
Techniques
Development
Global
Climate
Centres
DMC
Product
Generation &
Dissemination
PRODUCT DISSEMINATION
Environment
Monitoring
Attachments
Workshops
ECMWF
IRI
UKMO
NOAA
BMRC
WMO
etc …
DISSEMINATION
Lusaka, Zambia 1-5 September 2003

11. 2. OPERATIONAL ACTIVITIES
Developing and archiving of global, regional and national quality controlled climate databanks
Providing of climate monitoring, prediction and application services,
Conducting training and capacity building activities in the generation and application of climate products
Organizing the climate and malaria outlook forums for the SADC region, and
Enhancing the interactions with the user through regional users workshops and application pilot projects.

12. CLIMATE INFORMATION Climate variability Climate Change
The basic driving mechanism of steady-state climate: solar radiation and the rotation of the earth
The circulation patterns of the atmosphere in southern Africa
Important for application in socio-economic sectors: extremes in climate states often lead to the dislocation of socio-economic developments. Droughts/floods have wreaked havoc in the region from time to time.
Climate Change
The impacts of industrialization on climate system
Important for application in socio-economic sectors

13. EL NINO/SOUTHERN OSCILLATION
Southern African region socioeconomic development is influenced by climate variability.
The El Niño/southern Oscillation phenomenon has impacts on the region
Trends in global climate change have implications in the region

15. Impacts of ENSO phases in SADC
Droughts /Floods
Unprecedented crop failures
Decimation of livestock
Virtual collapse of industries since both water shortage and hydropower failures are frequently likely
Incidences of epidemiological diseases
Mass destruction of infrastructures: roads; bridges; houses, etc
Widespread suffering with loss of livestock and crops

16. SADC DMC TOOLS
The SADC DMC uses several tools to realize its objective and they are listed below: A

17. 30 Year Mean OND and JFM rainfall
Lusaka, Zambia 1-5 September 2003

18. Composite El Nino SST mean (top); anomalies(bottom)

19. Composite La Nina SST mean (top); anomalies(bottom)

21. Pacific Basin – SST (IRI)

22. Selected Atmospheric Patterns Zonal wind Indian / Atlantic (IRI)

24. PRODUCTS

25. RAINFALL PERFORMANCE HIGHLIGHTS
Significant rainfall deficits across the southern half of the SADC region .
Countries mostly affected BY deficits were Botswana, Zimbabwe, Namibia, southern half of Mozambique and South Africa .

26. October 2004 Dekadal cumulative rainfall
Trend: Most area had little rainfall.
Country with the highest rainfall over this period (>150mm): DRC
 October circulation feature(s): ITCZ to the north, middle level high-pressure dominating southern parts.

27. November 2004 Dekadal cumulative rainfall
Trend: First dekad was quite dry. Northern half had some decent rains. Areas with the highest rainfall over this period(>150mm): Northern Malawi Seychelles & Southern Tanzania.
Most of southern half experienced little rain.
November circulation feature(s): Depression over Mozambique Channel and ITCZ active over the northern parts.

28. December 2004 Dekadal cumulative rainfall
Trend: Most areas had widespread rainfall, the s’western sector had little rainfall. Countries with the highest rainfall over this period(>90mm): DRC, Seychelles, Zambia, Zimbabwe & Malawi.
 December circulation feature(s): Depressions over Mozambique Channel, ITCZ over the North and central part and middle level high-pressure system over the south/southwest.

29. OND TOTALS
Overall, most of the SADC region experienced largely normal rains during the OND However, parts of the southern sections, the bulk of central South Africa, had well below-normal rainfall, less than 65%.
Greater than 125 % was observed over Malawi, Northern Mozambique, northeastern coast of Tanzania.

30. Cumulative rains during OND 2004 for selected stations in the SADC
Rainfall was well below normal from October to December for Bulawayo in Zimbabwe, Maun in Botswana, Queensland in South Africa.

31. Parts of Malawi and north Mozambique had rains picking up sharply in Dec 2004

32. Rainfall was well below normal from October to December in DRC & Tanzania also.

33. CLIMATE PREDICTION Prediction of future state of Atmosphere
Understanding the physics of the atmosphere
Using computer models (high power)
Important for application in socio-economic sectors
Basic approaches
Analogue, Statistical and Dynamical

34. Prediction What do we need to know to make a good prediction?
the current state (initial conditions)
how the current state will evolve

35. Uncertainty in How the Current State will Evolve
El Niño Normal La Niña
Boreal winter
Boreal spring

36. Uncertainty in How the Current State will Evolve
Sea surface temperatures in the global oceans (but primarily in the tropics) can affect the overlying atmosphere by warming or cooling the air and affecting the amount of atmospheric moisture. Since these sea temperatures change fairly slowly, and can themselves be predicted, an influence on the atmosphere can be anticipated up to a few months in advance.

37. Communicating Uncertainty
Uncertainty is indicated by the probability that rainfall will be within a specified range. Uncertainty is high when the probability is high and the range is narrow.

38. HOMOGENOUS REGIONS FOR OND OVER SOUTHERN AFRICA

39. Graph of Observed and Forecasted for the region 1 DJF SEASON

40. SADC SEASONAL FORECAST OUTLOOK DJF 2006-2007

42. MAP1: Probabilities of Wet
DJF 2005/06 Rainfall For Malaria Outlook
REGIONS I,VII & IX HAS HIGH %GE OF EXCEEDING 75%NTILE
MAP1: Probabilities of Wet

43. DJF 2005/06 Rainfall Malaria Outlook MAP2: Probabilities of Dry
REGIONS II-VI & VIII HAVE HIGH PROB OF DRY INCIDENCES
MAP2: Probabilities of Dry

44. OND 2005 OBSERVED RAINFALL vs OUTLOOK
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45. OND 2005 VERIFICATION
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46. JFM 2006 OBSERVED RAINFALL vs OUTLOOK
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47. JFM 2006 OUTLOOK VERIFICATION
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48. ATTACHMENT PROGRAMME
The DMC has over the years hosted many scientists from mostly the subregion. It has also facilitated secondment of scientists to other global centres. Typically the scientists are hosted for a period of six months at a time at the DMC.
Training SADC National Meteorological and Hydrological Services' (NMHSs) staff on attachment at the DMC through guidance in conducting research in climate monitoring and prediction techniques.
After undergoing the training, scientists in prediction and producing climate bulletins, they return to their countries to share their new skills with other colleagues.

49. 3. CAPACITY BUILDING
In addition to training SADC (NMHSs) staff on attachment DMC with assistance from other scientists, develop climate monitoring and prediction techniques for developing Southern Africa Region Climate Outlook Forum (SARCOF) products.
Providing training to SADC NMHSs staff through capacity 1-2 week building workshops and SARCOF.
Strengthening links with users from sectors such as health, food security (early warning systems), water resources management, media, tourism industry, etc.

50. The aim of the pre-SARCOF capacity building workshops is to enhance the capacity of the NMHSs in generating climate outlook products at national level.
User workshops (e.g. media and water-resources) have been incorporated into the process so as to enhance the effective dissemination and application of climate monitoring and prediction information, and to create good working relations between the climate scientists and the various weather-sensitive sectors.
Since August 1999, the SADC DMC has organized 9 pre-SARCOF capacity building workshops, including two media water resources and livestock workshops.
In each workshop, inadequacies in the forecasting system are identified from previous experiences and attempts are made to address already recognised weaknesses.

51. 4. CLIMATE OUTLOOK FORUMS
The SADC DMC has organized nine Southern Africa Climate Outlook forums (SARCOF),
To provide a consensus seasonal climate outlook form for the SADC region.
Create a platform for interaction between the users and the climate scientists to enhance the application of meteorology to the reduction of climate related risks to food security, water resources and health for sustainable socio-economic development in the SADC region

52. CAPACITY BUILDING WORKSHOP
The SARCOF Process
CAPACITY BUILDING WORKSHOP
CONSENSUS MEETING
Aug - Sept
Sept
In Addition
User (e.g. Media, Health, Agric, Water and Disaster) Workshops

53. Verification of SARCOF
The SARCOF9 Consensus Climate Outlook for the October to December 2005 had a hit rate of 48% and Heidke Hit Skill Score of 22% . For January to March 2006 season had a hit rate of 69% and Heidke Hit Skill Score of 54%.
A good model evaluated over a period of more than ten years has a Heidke Hit Skill Score of 20.0%
The SARCOF9 Consensus Climate Outlook therefore was useful as its skill scores were within the skill score ranges of a good model.
Lusaka, Zambia 1-5 September 2003

54. This will immensely benefit users of climate services in the subregion, i.e. individuals and institutions from both public and private sectors.

55. CHALLENGES AND OPPORTUNITIES
Inadequate infrastructure and appropriate capacity (human and equipment),
Lack of coordination and communication between meteorologists and various users group,
Limited communication opportunities between countries, and
Unavailability of advanced technologies.

56. Challenges and Opportunities
Climate Monitoring and Prediction
Consultation with end users
Improved delivery systems
Training in the use of information
Incorporating user feedback

57. Challenges and Opportunities
Climate Monitoring and Prediction
Improved Seasonal Climate Forecasts
Increased reliability
Spatial scale
Temporal scale

58. PLANNED ACTIVITIES
The DMC will continue to build on the successes it made in climate analysis and prediction, and strive to improve areas of its weakness.
It will empower regional experts involved in climate diagnosis and prediction through on-the-job training, workshops and secondment of these experts to advanced climate centres overseas.
This will result in, among other things:
research focused on long-lead seasonal climate predictability in order to systematically produce useful forecasts; and
effective use of these experimental forecasts by scientists from participating countries in order to meet their particular social and economic needs.

59. SUMMARY
Climate extremes have profound impacts in SADC
DMC has contributed to the understanding of these extreme variations in SADC through consistent climate monitoring.
DMC generates and disseminates important prediction products.
These products are important in providing early warning for mitigation of adverse impacts of extremes in weather and climate.
There are still challenges: inadequate resources.
DMC have contributed to building capacity in SADC for climate prediction and applications through Climate outlook Forums.

60. THANK YOU FOR YOUR ATTENTION!!