1. Futures for Europeans in the Knowledge Economy Jerome C. Glenn The Millennium Project American Council for the United Nations University www.stateofthefuture.org

2. Just 25 years ago, there was no… Internet, World Wide Web, PCs, or mobile phones European Union, WTO, ICC, or NATO in Eastern Europe Talk of globalization, genetically modified food, stem cells AIDS Asymmetrical warfare, and … and most believed that a nuclear WW III would have destroyed the world by now

3. What about the next 15 years IQ becomes the competitive advantage in the global knowledge economy (personalized food, genetic engineering, computer enhanced learning) India and China are the axes of the global economy and produce far more millionaires than you are willing to believe today Life Extension begins to look like a realistic option while the aging population increases economic concerns Genetic engineering and AI creates new life forms that achieve awareness and can evolve A global brain emerges from Internet evolving later into Conscious-Technology

4. Conscious-Technology (Post-Information Age) When the distinction between these two trends becomes blurred, we will have reached the Post-Information Age HUMANS BECOMING CYBORGS BUILT ENVIRONMENT BECOMING INTELLIGENT 1985 2000 2015 2030

5. Simplification of History and an Alternative Future Age or EraProductPowerWealthPlaceWarTime Agricultural/ Extraction Food/ResReligionLandEarth/ResLocationCyclical IndustrialMachineNation-StateCapitalFactoryResourcesLinear InformationInfoserviceCorporationAccessOfficePerceptionFlexible Conscious- Technology LinkageIndividualBeingMotionIdentityInvented

6. Whither Europe? Expanding tourist Mecca living off its past –with increasing unemployment –aging society with crushing medical costs –with imported labor maintaining the status quo? Or can its aging population create its own employment via web-based businesses from teaching to tour guides? Or will it rise to the occasion and reinvent itself? The answer could be found in how it is responding to the 15 Global Challenges facing humanity today

7. Millennium Project Global Challenges Identification & Assessment 182 Developments 180 Developments 1997-98 1996-97 15 Issues with 131 Actions & 15 Opportunities with 213 Actions Distilled Into 1998-99 15 Challenges with 213 Actions 1999-2005 Global Challenges  General description  Regional views  Actions  Indicators State of the Future Index (SOFI) National SOFIs for American Countries 2000-2005

8. Millennium Project Nodes... are groups of individuals and institutions that connect global and local views in: Nodes identify participants, translate questionnaires and reports, and conduct interviews, special research, workshops, symposiums, and advanced training.

9. 1. Sustainable Development for All 2050 expect 3 billion more people; Economic growth accelerates; About 5-7 billion of the 9 billion will be urban; Serious urban systems ecology, nanotech, and new electric production and distributions system seem vital European knowledge of green technologies, policies, and ethics should be marketed to the world.

10. 2. Sufficient clean water without conflict Water tables falling on all continents 40% of humanity on international watersheds 70% water for agriculture New knowledge needed for filters and membranes for large-scale water treatment agricultural efficiencies Drought-and salt-tolerant plants Desalinization Household sanitation Water storage massive tree planting

11. 3. Population growth and resources be brought into balance Poverty-Environmental Migration to Europe increases By 2100 Europe’s population could be half of that of 2000. (362 million down from 728 million) Old Age Percent doubles 2050 (30% up from 15%) Knowledge economy jobs for older people should a HUGH industry for Europe.

12. ©2000 - 2003 Competia Inc. Proportion of population over 65 by region, 2000 and 2050 (projected) Source: US Bureau of the Census 2000, quoted in UNFPA State of the World Population 2004

13. ©2000 - 2003 Competia Inc. Source: UN World Population 2300

14. 4. Genuine democracy… emerging from authoritarian regimes European knowledge from colonial times to address failed states or sections within states? The increasing ability to manipulate information and information warfare threatens the future of democracy

15. Information Warfare Terrorist Organizations (Political, Ethnic, or Religious) Private Sector Competitive Intelligence Transnational Organized Crime Government Organizations Non-governmental Organizations Advanced Marketing Techniques

16. 5. Policymaking more sensitive to global long-term perspectives Knowledge economy requires the ability to monitor and anticipate future global change This sensitivity and ability can be automated into software EuroSOFI - European State of the Future Index

17. Press Releases Newsletters Journals Key Persons Tracking Conferences Seminars Key Word Internet Searching Monitor Specific Websites SCANNING Weblog-Database Management Feedback & New Requirements Analysis & Synthesis Individual StaffManagement Decisions Future Oriented Understanding and learning for organization Futures Intelligence System

18. The Global State of the Future Index (SOFI)

19. 6. Global IT working for everyone Internet is the self-organizing mechanism for the global brain and the emerging nervous system for conscious-technology by both design and self-organization China: 1 in cell phones, 2 in Internet users; gap is closing Knowledge economy Tele-education, Tele-nations Tele-government, Tele- volunteers, Tele-medicine, Tele-everything (if it isn’t tele - it will be tele-terminated) Meme epidemics (cultural implications) (seek markets not jobs)

20. 7.Ethical market economies reducing the rich-poor gap Top 5% bottom 5% ratio 6-1 in 1980; now over 200-1 Internet is re-distributing the means of production Elderly Europeans create self-employment – Memes needed to change from employment model to self- employment

21. 8. The threat of new and reemerging diseases, and immune micro-organisms reduced Europe a leader in Pharmaceuticals – a growth industry. World’s fast growth AIDS in Eastern Europe Gene sequencing leading to specific new drugs is very fast today (SARS), but urban concentrations, travel, and terrorism it may still require an alternative approach – rapid, short-term boost of the immune system.

22. 9. Capacity to decide improved Democratization and interactive media increase the number of people involved in decisionmaking, and the acceleration of change increases uncertainty, which reduces our capacity to decide and set priorities. Decision support software to identify and improve the improvement system, training in decisionmaking, cognitive science, prioritization, synergies, self-organization, knowledge visualization, mapping, and automated decisionmaking. TransInstitutions – part government, corporation, NGO, international organization, and university – for each of these 15 Global Challenges or any challenge

23. Future Businesses may become involved with TransInstitutions receives its funds from at least three of the following categories but not a majority from anyone: governments, for-profit corporations, non-profit organizations, UN or other international organizations, foundations, and/or individuals the persons who compose its board of directors and associated employees and consultants must come form all of these institutional categories but not a majority of anyone the products, services, and/or other outputs must be purchased or received by all of these categories, but not by a majority of anyone. This could be an extension of non-profit or profit corporate law of a government.

24. UN Organizations NGOs Universities Governments Corporations Millennium Project … May become a TransInstitution

25. 10. Ethnic conflicts, terrorism, weapons of mass destruction African crime rate in Paris, Islamists threats in Holland, Pakistani immigrants in England, stateless Gypsies, and organized crime throughout Europe. Future ICT, marketing, competitive intelligence, infor- warfare, info-terrorism, and organized crime may be inter-linking – How will people know what to trust? Knowledge Economy Pollution SIMAD (Single Individuals Massively Destructive) Linkage of Education, health, and security systems

26. 11. Changing status of women helping to improve the human condition Internet, knowledge economy increases women’s access to cash/political economy, which increase general welfare, especially of children Yet, male attacks on women 15-44 cause more death and disability than wars; Amnesty International estimates that 33% of women worldwide have been attacked by partners Media, Memes power to change male culture

27. 12. Transnational organized crime About € 2,000,000,000,000.00 ( € 2 trillion) Next? Governments’ decisions bought and sold like drugs; Elderly on Internet exploited. Could Europe initiate a new a new global system? Implement Palermo Treaty with a new mechanism that upgrades check transfer software, prioritizes collaborative enforcement, and deputizes courts

28. 13. Growing energy demand met safely and efficiently Global Electricity demand will double, and maybe triple in the next 50 years; advances in nanotech and biotech will greatly improve efficiencies, but more is needed. A world energy organization to pool talent and money from business, government, and universities for high risk, high payoff R&D for large-scale systems such as Carbon Sequestration and Solar Power Satellites

29. ©2000 - 2003 Competia Inc. 18801860 500 0 1000 1500 190019201940196019802000202020402060 Surprise Geothermal Solar Biomass Wind Nuclear Hydro Gas Oil &NGL Coal Trad. Bio. Exajoules Shell Oil’s “Sustainable” Growth Scenario Carbon sequestration

30. 14. S&T Breakthroughs accelerated to improve the human condition S&T progresses too fast to regulate, yet its potential dangers are too big not to regulate on a global scale International Science & Technology Organization could begin as an information system

31. 15. Global Ethics and Global Decisions Global ethics are emerging via ISOs, UN Treaties, the Olympics, NGOs, and the media To be a counter weight to the US and China/India, Europe could lead the global ethics discussions: –What is the ethical way to intervene in the affairs of a country that is significantly endangering its or other people? –Do we have the right to alter our genetic germ line so that future generations cannot inherit the potential for genetically related diseases or disabilities? –Do we have the right to genetically change ourselves and future generations into new species?

32. The Millennium Project WWW.STATEOFTHEFUTURE.ORG Jglenn@igc.org