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Consumer Staples Company Presentation Des Dudaney Erica Elsasser Neil Hertenstein Mun Yi Se Tho May 18 th, 2010.

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Presentation on theme: "Consumer Staples Company Presentation Des Dudaney Erica Elsasser Neil Hertenstein Mun Yi Se Tho May 18 th, 2010."— Presentation transcript:

1 Consumer Staples Company Presentation Des Dudaney Erica Elsasser Neil Hertenstein Mun Yi Se Tho May 18 th, 2010

2 Company Comparison PepsiCo Analysis P&G Analysis Recomm- endations Sector Summary 1.Sector Summary 2.Company Comparison 3. PepsiCo Analysis 4. P & G Analysis 5. Recommendation Table of Contents

3 Company Comparison PepsiCo Analysis P&G Analysis Recomm- endations Sector Summary Recommendation Sell 67 BP of Pepsi Sell 40 BP of P&G Hold Philip Morris & Wal-Mart Recomm- endations

4 Sector Summary

5 Company Comparison PepsiCo Analysis P&G Analysis Recomm- endations Sector Summary SIM Portfolio SectorS&P 500 WeightSIM Weight+/- Consumer Discretionary10.55%10.44%-0.11% Consumer Staples10.91%11.71%0.80% Energy11.18%9.76%-1.43% Financials16.47%11.41%-5.07% Health Care11.55%14.63%3.07% Industrials10.76%13.10%2.34% Information Technology18.91%20.18%1.27% Materials3.45%1.64%-1.82% Telecommunication2.73%3.70%0.98% Utilities3.48%2.10%-1.38% * Weights as of 4/30/2010 Sector Summary

6 Company Comparison PepsiCo Analysis P&G Analysis Recomm- endations Sector Summary CS Sector Recap Decrease weight of Consumer Staples by 107 basis points  Provides a 27 bp underweighting  Defensive sector and lower returns in economic growth  Allows more cyclical sectors to experience higher gains Sector Summary

7 Company Comparison PepsiCo Analysis P&G Analysis Recomm- endations Sector Summary Sector Holdings Current Holdings SIM – 11.71%  PepsiCo………………2.90%  Wal-Mart Stores Inc…2.78%  Philip Morris Int’l……..2.96%  Procter & Gamble……3.07% * Weights as of 4/30/2010 Recommended Holdings SIM – 10.64%  PepsiCo……………….2.23%  Wal-Mart Stores Inc….2.78%  Philip Morris Int’l……...2.96%  Procter & Gamble…….2.67% Sector Summary

8 Company Comparison PepsiCo Analysis P&G Analysis Recomm- endations Sector Summary Target Prices 10/4/20158 CompanyCurrent PriceTarget PriceDividendUpside Potential Philip Morris$46.25$574.9%28.1% Procter & Gamble$63.38$723.1%16.7% Wal-Mart$52.73$622.3%17.6% PepsiCo$66.75$742.7%13.6% Prices as of 5/13/2010 Sector Summary

9 Company Comparison PepsiCo Analysis P&G Analysis Recomm- endations Sector Summary Target Prices of Sector Stocks in S&P Sector Summary

10 Company Information

11 Company Comparison PepsiCo Analysis P&G Analysis Recomm- endations Sector Summary Philip Morris - Hold Philip Morris International Inc. (PM) is the leading international tobacco company.  Spin-off from Altria(MO) in 2008. PM owns seven of the world’s top 15 brands  Brand portfolio includes Marlboro, the number one cigarette brand worldwide. Products sold in approximately 160 countries. As of 2008, the company held an estimated 15.6% share of the total international cigarette market outside of the U.S. Company Comparison

12 PepsiCo Analysis P&G Analysis Recomm- endations Sector Summary Wal-Mart Stores - Hold Wal-Mart Stores, Inc. operates various formats of retail stores and restaurants, including combination discount and grocery stores, supercenters, Sam’s Clubs, hypermarkets, cash-n- carry stores, department stores, and general merchandise stores  Attractive Valuation  Big move to online – sales, ad campaign etc.  Improved merchandising capabilities, capital efficiency, inventory management  Very non-cyclical Company Comparison

13 PepsiCo Analysis P&G Analysis Recomm- endations Sector Summary PepsiCo PepsiCo, Inc., founded in 1898, manufactures, markets, and sells numerous foods, snacks, and carbonated and non- carbonated beverages worldwide. Market capitalization of $106.55 billion. PepsiCo owns hundreds of brands around the world, but the most recognizable include: Company Comparison

14 PepsiCo Analysis P&G Analysis Recomm- endations Sector Summary Procter & Gamble The Procter & Gamble Company (P&G), founded in 1837, engages in the manufacture and sale of consumer goods worldwide. The company operates in 3 global business units:  Beauty  Health and Well-Being  Household Care Products are sold in over 180 countries worldwide Company Comparison

15 PepsiCo Analysis

16 Company Comparison PepsiCo Analysis P&G Analysis Recomm- endations Sector Summary EPS is expected to increase, but remain significantly lower than before. EPS Growth % PepsiCo Analysis

17 Company Comparison PepsiCo Analysis P&G Analysis Recomm- endations Sector Summary ROE has been on a slight upward trend, but is expected to decrease. ROE Relative to S&P 500 PepsiCo Analysis

18 Company Comparison PepsiCo Analysis P&G Analysis Recomm- endations Sector Summary EBITDA Margin is expected to decrease. EBITDA Relative to S&P 500 PepsiCo Analysis

19 Company Comparison PepsiCo Analysis P&G Analysis Recomm- endations Sector Summary Net profit margin is lower than Coca-Cola’s. Profit Margin Relative to KO PepsiCo Analysis

20 Company Comparison PepsiCo Analysis P&G Analysis Recomm- endations Sector Summary Cash Flow per share PepsiCo Analysis

21 Company Comparison PepsiCo Analysis P&G Analysis Recomm- endations Sector Summary Technical Analysis

22 Company Comparison PepsiCo Analysis P&G Analysis Recomm- endations Sector Summary Discounted Cash Flow PepsiCo Analysis

23 Company Comparison PepsiCo Analysis P&G Analysis Recomm- endations Sector Summary Sensitivity Analysis PepsiCo Analysis

24 Company Comparison PepsiCo Analysis P&G Analysis Recomm- endations Sector Summary Target Price PepsiCo Analysis

25 Company Comparison PepsiCo Analysis P&G Analysis Recomm- endations Sector Summary PepsiCo Recommendation Benefits Global leadership in the snack business – Expand snack business in developing and emerging markets Taking advantage of the coincidence of consumption in snacks and beverages Purchase of PBG and PAS bottlers Focus on health and wellness – Expand the “Good for You” portfolio – Continue to make core snacks healthier through innovations in heart-healthy oil, sodium reduction and the additions of whole grains, nuts and seeds. Risks Failure to realize US bottler integration/synergies Currency Volatility – 48% of PepsiCo revenue is from operations outside the US. Largest operations are in North America (US, Canada, Mexico) and UK Recommendation: Sell 67 bps Current Price: 66.75 Target Price: 74.00 Implied Upside: 13.6% PepsiCo Analysis

26 Procter & Gamble Analysis

27 Company Comparison PepsiCo Analysis P&G Analysis Recomm- endations Sector Summary EPS growth is expected to remain negative. EPS Growth % P&G Analysis

28 Company Comparison PepsiCo Analysis P&G Analysis Recomm- endations Sector Summary ROE is at low levels of the decade. ROE % P&G Analysis

29 Company Comparison PepsiCo Analysis P&G Analysis Recomm- endations Sector Summary EBITDA margin is below JNJ. EBITA Margin Relative to JNJ P&G Analysis

30 Company Comparison PepsiCo Analysis P&G Analysis Recomm- endations Sector Summary Net Profit Margin has low growth rate and is expected to remain so. Net Profit Margin % P&G Analysis

31 Company Comparison PepsiCo Analysis P&G Analysis Recomm- endations Sector Summary Technical Analysis

32 Company Comparison PepsiCo Analysis P&G Analysis Recomm- endations Sector Summary Absolute Valuation P&G Analysis

33 Company Comparison PepsiCo Analysis P&G Analysis Recomm- endations Sector Summary Relative Valuation to S&P 500 P&G Analysis

34 Company Comparison PepsiCo Analysis P&G Analysis Recomm- endations Sector Summary Relative Valuation to Industry P&G Analysis

35 Company Comparison PepsiCo Analysis P&G Analysis Recomm- endations Sector Summary 72.162 Price Target P&G Analysis

36 Company Comparison PepsiCo Analysis P&G Analysis Recomm- endations Sector Summary Discounted Cash Flow Model P&G Analysis

37 Company Comparison PepsiCo Analysis P&G Analysis Recomm- endations Sector Summary Sensitivity Analysis P&G Analysis

38 Company Comparison PepsiCo Analysis P&G Analysis Recomm- endations Sector Summary Procter & Gamble Recommendation Recommendation: Sell 40 bps Current Price: $63.38 Target Price: $72.00 Ratios $72.16 DCF $71.97 Implied Upside: 13.6% Dividend yield: 3.1% Implied Upside w/ Dividend: 16.7% P&G Analysis

39 Company Comparison PepsiCo Analysis P&G Analysis Recomm- endations Sector Summary P&G Analysis Benefits International initiative Product Expansion Product leadership Increased Advertising Very defensive Consistent dividends Procter & Gamble Risks and Benefits Risks Currency Volatility Pampers Lawsuit Changes in consumer spending Lower upside relative to other consumer staple companies

40 Recommendations

41 Company Comparison PepsiCo Analysis P&G Analysis Recomm- endations Sector Summary Stock Recommendation Sell 107 bp  Sell 67 bp of Pepsi  Sell 40 bp of Procter & Gamble Limited potential upside in both stocks Hold Wal-Mart and Philip Morris due to high upside Sale of 107 bp in our sector will allow other sectors to utilize it to gain better returns for the portfolio Risks  Sale of 107 bp will leave the portfolio less defensive should the economy decline again Recomm- endations

42 Questions ?


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