1. Demonstration of capabilities of a bi- regional CGE model to assess impacts of rural development policies (RURMOD-E) Demonstration Workshop Brussels, 26.11.2008

2. POLICY- SCENARIOS RESULTS Eudokia Balamou and Demetrios Psaltopoulos Department of Economics University of Patras

3. Scenarios Prod Sub DP RDP public fundinig TotalDistribution to Axes Axis 1Axis 2Axis 3 FULDEC Decoupling 0100%0 MODUL Support exclusively to investment in constructions 087%13% Pillar 2 + nat. coffin. SOFTMOD Support to investment (construction, equipment), training, etc. 087%13% Pillar 2 + nat. coffin. RDM-AGRI Agricultural centered RD measures (axis 1 and Axis 2) 087%13% Pillar 2 + EAFRD(1,2)+ nat. coffin. RDIVERS Diversification of rural economy (311,312) Project RENOV Renovation and Development of Villages (322) Project

4. ARCHANES – HERAKLION Impacts on GDP at Factor Cost (% change from base-year) FULL DEC.MODULSOFT MOD RDM-AGRI (Axes 1, 2) RDIVERSRENOV Rural -0.86 3.92-1.080.010.53 Primary -1.04-1.06-1.48-0.83-0.01-0.15 Secondary -5.79-5.681.87-6.710.571.47 Tertiary 0.16 9.20-0.35-0.081.00 Urban 0.030.02-0.010.050.000.09 Primary -8.29-8.31-8.96-8.26-0.02-0.01 Secondary 0.901.08-6.600.830.37-5.73 Tertiary 0.250.211.500.28-0.061.07 Total -0.01-0.020.160.00 0.11

5. ARCHANES-HERAKLION Impacts on Domestic Production FULL DEC. MODULSOFT MOD RDM- AGRI (Axes 1,2)RDIVERSRENOV Primary -5.58-5.54-6.35-6.11-0.02-0.10 Secondary 0.190.36-6.150.090.32-4.95 Tertiary 0.260.231.790.27-0.070.96 Total 0.120.14-0.100.100.02-0.34 FULL DEC MODULSOFTMOD RDM- AGRI (Axes 1,2)RDIVERSRENOV Primary 7.957.895.738.47-0.13-1.46 Secondary 1.291.320.581.26-0.02-1.05 Tertiary -9.24-9.27-9.77-8.88-9.12-9.23 Impacts on Producer Prices

6. ARCHANES-HERAKLION Factor Income Effects FULL DEC.MODULSOFTM OD RDM- AGRI (Axes 1,2)RDIVERSRENOV Uns.Lab -1.22 -0.95-1.23-0.05-0.57 Sk.Lab 0.050.060.440.06-0.02-0.14 Capital 0.070.080.380.02-0.070.39 RAgrLand -9.19-9.24-9.51-8.90-0.090.18 RLandH -0.28-0.682.003.99-0.090.64 ULandH 0.040.020.540.05-0.070.08 AGCAP -18.19-18.24-19.96-17.86-0.10-0.90 AGRENTS -16.87-16.92-18.70-16.45-0.10-0.96

7. ARCHANES-HERAKLION Employment Effects FULL DEC.MODUL SOFT MOD RDM-AGRI (Axes 1,2)RDIVERSRENOV Unskilled Labor Rural -3.29-3.300.13-3.37-0.011.01 Urban 0.15 -0.010.160.00-0.05 Skilled Labor Rural -2.40-2.3718.79-2.900.21-0.16 Urban 0.04 -0.330.05-0.0040.003

8. ARCHANES-HERAKLION Household Income Effects FULL DEC. MODULSOFT MOD RDM- AGRI (Axes 1,2) RDIVERSRENOV R- P/M Comm. -1.17-1.20-0.96-0.75-0.04-0.35 R-W Comm. -0.65-0.68-0.28-0.34-0.05 R-Comm-ROW -0.25-0.28-0.0040.13-0.02-0.08 R-P/M Other -1.82-1.83-1.65-1.69-0.05-0.20 R-W Other -1.02-0.77-0.85-0.04-0.15 U-P/M Comm. -0.36-0.38-0.08-0.31-0.05-0.10 U-W Comm. -0.29 0.001-0.29-0.04-0.07 U-Comm.ROW -0.25-0.260.08-0.25-0.05-0.01 U-P/M Other -0.32 0.05-0.33-0.05-0.07 U-W Other -0.19-0.180.21-0.20-0.060.07 RAGHHS 5.213.342.7326.70-0.07-0.68 UAGHHS 0.590.380.620.89-0.06-0.08

9. DISTRICT BRUNTAL Impacts on GDP at Factor Cost (% change from base year) FULL DEC. MODUL SOFTMOD RDM- AGRI (Axes 1,2)RDIVERSRENOV Rural -2.30-0.0010.031.780.59-0.02 Primary -32.86-0.025-0.071.8246.29-0.08 Secondary -1.63-0.002-0.022.76-0.99-0.19 Tertiary 0.220.0010.071.05-1.260.11 Urban -0.520.0010.031.10-0.690.15 Secondary -0.93-0.002-0.021.41-0.36-0.21 Tertiary -0.300.0020.060.93-0.870.35 Total -0.910.000.031.25-0.410.11

10. DISTRICT BRUNTAL Impacts on Domestic Production Impacts on Producer Prices FULL DEC.MODULSOFTMOD RDM- AGRI (Axes 1,2)RDIVERSRENOV Primary -26.76-26.78-26.83-25.44-0.09-0.18 Secondary -1.33 -1.380.61-0.04-0.17 Tertiary -0.36-0.35-0.310.86-0.260.10 Total -1.10 -1.080.38-0.10-0.001 FULL DEC. MODULSOFTMOD RDM-AGRI (Axes 1,2)RDIVERSRENOV Primary 20.6620.6420.5911.53-0.22-0.24 Secondary 0.18 0.190.27-0.05-0.02 Tertiary -0.17-1.16-1.190.65-0.01-0.04

11. DISTRICT BRUNTAL Factor Income Effects FULL DEC. MODUL SOFT MOD RDM- AGRI (Axes 1,2)RDIVERSRENOV R-Uns. Lab -4.80 -4.78-2.090.150.01 R-Sk. Lab -2.65 -2.60-0.230.070.08 U-Uns. Lab -0.94 -0.900.79-0.110.07 U-Sk. Lab -0.91 -0.860.86-0.130.10 Capital -1.29 -1.230.67-0.150.14 R.Agr. Land -4.78-4.79-4.810.82-0.59-0.85 R-LandH -1.20 -1.111.11-0.160.23 U-LandH -1.70-1.68-1.711.24-0.21-0.16 AGCAP -43.65-43.67-43.74-41.39-0.29-0.41 AGRENTS -43.65-43.67-43.74-41.39-0.29-0.41

12. DISTRICT BRUNTAL Employment Effects FULL DEC. MODUL SOFT MOD RDM-AGRI (Axes 1,2)RDIVERSRENOV Unskilled Labor Rural -6.86 -6.85-4.190.220.01 Urban -0.96-0.95-0.910.81-0.080.07 Skilled Labor Rural -3.99 0.16-1.520.150.07 Urban -0.93 0.210.86-0.100.10

13. DITRICT BRUNTAL Household Income Effects FULL DEC. MODU L SOFT MOD RDM-AGRI (Axes 1,2)RDIVERSRENOV R-Commuter -2.19 -2.150.18-0.010.07 R-Other -2.30 -2.26-0.02-0.010.07 U-Commuter -1.84-1.86-1.881.73-0.26 U-Other -1.32 -1.270.95-0.170.10 RAGHHS 77.1039.47 80.44-0.09-0.15 Introduction of Direct payments LFA and Early Retirment payments

14. Comparison of Results Greece Rural Czech Rural Greece Urban Czech Urban Greece Total Czech Total FULL DEC. -0.86-2.300.03-0.52-0.01-0.91 MODUL -0.86-0.0010.020.001-0.020.00 SOFTMOD 3.920.03-0.010.030.160.03 RDM-AGRI (Axes 1,2) 1.081.780.051.100.001.25 RDIVERS 0.010.590.00-0.690.00-0.41 RENOV 0.53-0.020.090.150.11 Impacts on GDP at Factor Cost

15. Comparison of Results Impacts on Domestic Output FULL DEC. MODUL SOFT MOD RDM- AGRI (Axes 1,2)RDIVERSRENOV Greece Total 0.120.14-0.100.100.02-0.34 Czech Total -1.10 -1.080.38-0.10-0.001

16. Comparison of Results Employment Effects FULL DEC. MODUL SOFT MOD RDM-AGRI (Axes 1,2)RDIVERSRENOV Unskilled Labor GR-Rural -3.29-3.300.13-3.37-0.011.01 CZ-Rural -6.86 -6.85-4.190.220.01 GR-Urban 0.15 -0.010.160.00-0.05 GR-Urban -0.96-0.95-0.910.81-0.080.07 Skilled Labor GR-Rural -2.40-2.3718.79-2.900.21-0.16 CZ-Rural -3.99 0.16-1.520.150.07 GR-Urban 0.04 -0.330.05-0.0040.003 CZ-Urban -0.93 0.210.86-0.100.10

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