1. 1 The elderly at work – an asset Committee of the Regions Open Days seminar on Active Ageing 12 October 2011 Dr. Jörg Peschner European Commission, DG EMPL/A1

2. 2 Active Ageing: A must! Demographic change: workforce will be shrinking rapidly – but more older workers will become available. Europe will inevitably fall behind current welfare standards unless.... we find ways to tap this huge resource and further shift older peoples employment rate.. we manage to provide for significant productivity shifts via skills development at all ages

3. 3 EUs workforce will inevitably shrink… Source: Eurostat, EUROPOP2010 projection -42 m workers over the next 50 years.... -96 m workers without migration..

4. 4.. and change its face: More older people will be come available… Source: Eurostat, EUROPOP2010 projection 2010 – 2020: +7.4m older people 2020 – 2030: +2.5m older people

5. 5.. literally everywhere in Europe.. Share of people aged 55-64 in people aged 20-64 Source: LFS data, own calculations based on DG EMPLs regional projection software

6. 6.. literally everywhere in Europe.. Share of people aged 55-64 in people aged 20-64 Source: LFS data, own calculations based on DG EMPLs regional projection software

7. 7.. literally everywhere in Europe.. Share of people aged 55-64 in people aged 20-64 Source: LFS data, own calculations based on DG EMPLs regional projection software

8. 8.. so efficient Active Ageing Policy is necessary! Lessons from the past: LISBON-Strategy 2000-2010 Though the formal targets werent achieved, LISBON was a success … EU27 Employment rates by age group between 2000 and 2010 Source: Eurostat LFS

9. 9 … to which older workers contributed much more than proportionately Source: Eurostat LFS EU27 Employment rates by age group between 2000 and 2010

10. 10 EU2020 Employment rate target: 75% for the 20-64 year-olds Up to 2020 it will still be possible to shift employment,…. Source: Own calculations based on LFS data …. if the EU manages to achieve its EU2020 employment rate for the 20-64 year-olds of 75%, starting from 68% in 2010 (creating more than 20m jobs). % increase p.a.

11. 11 EU2020 Employment rate target: 75% for the 20-64 year-olds But after 2020 employment will shrink… …. if employment rate will remain at 75%, i.e., will not shift further …. if the number of migrants will not further increase. Pressure on productivity will multiply! Source: Own calculations based on LFS data % increase p.a.

12. 12 Policy conclusions In order to maintain welfare standards, Europe must - cushion to the largest possible extent the impact of the workforce decline by further shifting employment rates at all ages. Dont stop after 2020! Supply of older workers will continue to increase until 2030: Tap this potential! - invest heavily in skills development, education, Life-Long Learning in order to shift productivity - adopt a modern approach towards qualified migration

13. 13 EU2020 strategy: Focus on employment and productivity gains. Guideline 7: Increase labour market participation and reduce structural unemployment (the EU headline target, on the basis of which Member States will set their national targets, is of aiming to bring by 2020 to 75% the employment rate for people aged 20- 64 for EU27). Guidelines 8,9: Develop a skilled workforce responding to labour market needs, promoting job quality and lifelong learning; improve performance of education and training systems at all levels.... Employment guidelines as proposed by the Commission: Shift employment rate! Increase productivity via skills development!

14. 14 Dr. Jörg Peschner Seconded National Expert European Commission DG Employment DG Employment, Social Affairs and Inclusion A1 - Employment Analysis J-27 02/111 B-1049 Brussels jorg.peschner@ec.europa.eu +32 - 2 29 64290 (phone) +32 - 2 29 94233 (fax) Thank you!