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June 2009- December 2011- EIE/08/653 30/4/2010 1 Sustainable biomass supply in the EU Dr. Berien Elbersen, Alterra Presented at the Biomass Futures-FNR.

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Presentation on theme: "June 2009- December 2011- EIE/08/653 30/4/2010 1 Sustainable biomass supply in the EU Dr. Berien Elbersen, Alterra Presented at the Biomass Futures-FNR."— Presentation transcript:

1 June 2009- December 2011- EIE/08/653 30/4/2010 1 Sustainable biomass supply in the EU Dr. Berien Elbersen, Alterra Presented at the Biomass Futures-FNR Workshop Biomass sustainability criteria November 30, 2010 in Berlin

2 June 2009- December 2011- EIE/08/653 30/4/2010 Outline Environmentally sustainable biomass availability Estimates of different biomass potentials and related sustainability considerations – Waste – By-products agriculture – Dedicated cropping Cost-supply relations Conclusions and further steps 2

3 June 2009- December 2011- EIE/08/653 30/4/2010 Biomass categories included 3 Biomass from waste – Waste biomass – Primary, secondary, tertiary residues Biomass from agriculture – Dedicated cropping – Primary residues (straw, prunnings, manure) Biomass from forestry – Round wood production – Additionally harvested wood – Primary forestry residues – Secondary forestry residues

4 June 2009- December 2011- EIE/08/653 30/4/2010 Environmental constraints Different biomass resources have different sustainability considerations: – Waste products – By-products – Forestry products – Dedicated cropping 4 No sustainability constraints Many sustainability constraints

5 June 2009- December 2011- EIE/08/653 30/4/2010 Wastes Source: Eurostat waste statistics (year 2008).

6 June 2009- December 2011- EIE/08/653 30/4/2010 Present recovery of which some going to bioenergy

7 June 2009- December 2011- EIE/08/653 30/4/2010 Verge grass EU: 1.9 mln TOE (2% of total potential)

8 June 2009- December 2011- EIE/08/653 30/4/2010 Summary for wastes Waste categories Potential mln TOE % of total potential Present recovery rate Verge grass1.91Unknown Wood waste32.323 Very high in most countries Animal waste from food industry2.82 High in some countries Organic waste from households and industry25.718 High in some countries Paper cardboard50.436 Very high in most countries Common sludges3.73Low

9 June 2009- December 2011- EIE/08/653 30/4/2010 Conclusions on waste potential Overall large potential, but other competing uses, especially for cardboard and wood- wastes Practically no sustainability problems related to the use Present collection systems different in EU In principle cheap resource, but still many logistical problems related to collection EU wide data on availability unreliable

10 June 2009- December 2011- EIE/08/653 30/4/2010 Agricultural by-products Manure Straw Prunings

11 June 2009- December 2011- EIE/08/653 30/4/2010 Manure Factors determining potential: Type and animal numbers (LSU/ ha forage area) Sustainability constraints: – Loss of soil fertility (over-exploitation of manure) – Abandonment of grazing (abandonment of land) to move to housing system and collect manure Therefore the sustainable potential is only the the surplus manure (surplus= >170 kgN/ha) Source data used: Eurostat FSS, NVZ maps, own elaborations

12 June 2009- December 2011- EIE/08/653 30/4/2010 Manure available (2005) EU: 6.7 mln TOE (4.8% of total potential) EU: 1.6 mln TOE (1.1% of total potential)

13 June 2009- December 2011- EIE/08/653 30/4/2010 Straw JRC approach Sources of straw: all cereals, maize (straw of corn), rapeseed, sunflower Sustainability constraints: – too much straw removal could lead to soil fertility (Soil C) loss Therefore estimated sustainably harvested potential (40% for cereals and 50% for rest) Minus competing uses (animal bedding, mushroom production)

14 June 2009- December 2011- EIE/08/653 30/4/2010 Straw EU: 16 mln TOE (12% of total potential) EU: 28 mln TOE (based on CAPRI baseline scenario 2020)

15 June 2009- December 2011- EIE/08/653 30/4/2010 By-products from pruning and clearing Factors determining potential: Permanent cropping area (e.g. vineyards, fruit trees, nuts and berries, olives and citrus) Sustainability constraints: – Some risk of soil compaction, if heavy machinery used – Loss of soil carbon when roots removed of old plantations, certainly when ploughed up after many years Source data used: Eurostat FSS, own elaborations

16 June 2009- December 2011- EIE/08/653 30/4/2010 Pruning material available (2005)

17 June 2009- December 2011- EIE/08/653 30/4/2010 Total pruning material (2005) EU: 6.7 mln TOE (5% of the total present potential)

18 June 2009- December 2011- EIE/08/653 30/4/2010 Dedicated cropping: sustainability

19 June 2009- December 2011- EIE/08/653 30/4/2010 Biomass cropping/harvesting effects on environment through: -Land use change effect (including iluc) -Conversion of natural/semi-natural land use categories (e.g. tropical forests, extensive grasslands) -Conversion of degraded land -Conversions in existing arable land (e.g. from annual to perennial) -Intensification/extensification effect in existing agricultural lands because of an overall change in practice (e.g. crops, input use) -Climate change effect, mitigation (?) reduces adverse effects on biodiversity

20 June 2009- December 2011- EIE/08/653 30/4/2010 Dedicated bioenergy crops 2008 MaizeOSRSugarbeetSunflowerCerealsPerennialsTotal AT53.011.50.06.02.00.072.6 BG0.0 243.50.0 243.5 BE1.22.40.0 3.70.07.3 CZ0.0122.00.0 122.0 DE399.51800.92.40.0253.53.62459.8 DK0.0 170.58.5179.0 GR0.0 9.30.0 9.3 ES0.0 68.928.00.196.9 FI0.00.60.0 0.579.280.3 FR53.91378.152.468.2622.614.92190.1 HU0.011.80.012.80.0 24.5 IE0.0 6.9 IT0.05.30.054.00.073.6132.9 NL1.26.50.0 7.7 PL0.01477.00.0 117.61594.6 PT0.0 RO0.013.80.0493.30.0 507.0 SE0.061.50.0 55.245.0161.7 UK0.0427.20.0 32.921.7481.8 Total508.85318.654.8955.81168.8371.18378.1 %0.4%4.4%0%0.8%1%0.3%6.9% Present situation

21 June 2009- December 2011- EIE/08/653 30/4/2010 Land & water requirements bioenergy: present Situation 2005- 2008 main feedstock Area biofuel crop (mln ha.) % total cropped area % total irrigation withdrawals BrazilSugarcane2.453.5 USAMaize3.83.52.7 CanadaWheat0.31.11.4 GermanyWheat& OSR1.6100 FranceSugarbeat &OSR1.580 ItalyWheat0.11.70 SpainWheat0.32.20 SwedenWheat01.30 UKSugarbeet0.12.40 ChinaMaize1.91.12.2 IndiaSugarcane0.30.21.2 ThailandSugarcane00.31.9 IndonesiaSugarcane00.11.2 S. AfrikaSugarcane0.11.19.8 World total 12.411.1 Source: De Fraiture et al., 2007 and Eurostat, own adjustments

22 June 2009- December 2011- EIE/08/653 30/4/2010 Future situation? Biofuel crops Perennial crops

23 June 2009- December 2011- EIE/08/653 30/4/2010 2020 CAPRI biofuel cropping EU Product coverage in the CAPRI 2020 biofuel module: BAS scenario Biofuel FeedstockBy-product EthanolWheat Coarse grains (maize, barley, oats, sorghum) Sugar DDGS Gluten feed BiodieselOilseeds (rapeseed, sunflower), palm oil Oil meals and cakes Shock: EU biofuel demand in 2020 Baseline (RED) Counterfactual (No-RED) EthanolBiodieselEthanolBiodiesel Production (million litres)177902424361921664 Consumption (million litres)212392819666801995 From first generation biofuels179352322066801995 From second generation biofuels3304497600 Source: IPTS (2010) CAPRI derived these from AGLINK-COSIMO simulations.

24 June 2009- December 2011- EIE/08/653 30/4/2010 CAPRI supply distribution 2020 RED EU-production %Imports %Amount (1000 ton) MAIZ85.914.168838 RAPE66.833.213876 SUNF64.435.68066 SOYA0.0100.01492 SUGB100.00.0118969 CERE2.497.6316817 OILS0.0100.023434 But demand for imported biodiesel and bioethanol not included!

25 June 2009- December 2011- EIE/08/653 30/4/2010 CAPRI-2020 RED Net change in: – Land use (cropping pattern) – Livestock (numbers+types) This effect was assessed within EU in EEA study – Soil N2O emissions – Changes in Soil C – N-Leaching (inside and outside HNV farmland)

26 June 2009- December 2011- EIE/08/653 30/4/2010 Effect: Soil N2O emissions

27 June 2009- December 2011- EIE/08/653 30/4/2010 Net impact of Soil C (2004-2020 compared)

28 June 2009- December 2011- EIE/08/653 30/4/2010 Change in N-surplus HNV + RED HNV + NO RED NO HNV + RED NO HNV+ NO RED

29 June 2009- December 2011- EIE/08/653 30/4/2010 Future dedicated cropping with perennials Based on land availability and cropping mix as predicted by CAPRI in baseline scenario 3 options: – High support for cropping, competes with arable crops on good-medium productive arable lands – Some cropping support, is economic on fallow land and former olives and vineyards i.e. the lower productive lands – Some support for establishment and bringing back into production of abandoned land in areas with large abandoned land resource

30 June 2009- December 2011- EIE/08/653 30/4/2010 On good-medium productive arable lands Assumption of 5% of 2020 good- medium quality land High yield per hectare Very large indirect land effects Southern Europe large pressure on scarce water resources Largest potential: 30 Mln TOE

31 June 2009- December 2011- EIE/08/653 30/4/2010 On low productive arable lands Assumption: 10% of 2020 fallow, olive and vineyards Medium-low yield per hectare Limited indirect land effects Large adverse effects on biodiversity Lowest potential: 10 mln TOE

32 June 2009- December 2011- EIE/08/653 30/4/2010 On former abandoned lands Estimate: regional abandoned land share 5%- 10% of UAA. Of this 5% used for dedicated biomass cropping Low yield per hectare No indirect land effects Some negative effects on biodiversity Effect on soil C: tbd Average potential: 15.5 mln TOE

33 June 2009- December 2011- EIE/08/653 30/4/2010 Conclusions dedicated cropping Present dedicated cropping area still relatively small both inside and outside EU. In 2020 net environmental effect of biofuel dedicated cropping in EU still relatively small, not very large difference with No-RED situation. But environmental effect is expected to be much larger outside EU (cereal, sugar, soya, palm-oil demand). Environmental effects of dedicated cropping with perennials could be diverse depending on stimulation methods. Abandoned lad option should be investigated further. 33

34 June 2009- December 2011- EIE/08/653 30/4/2010 Cost-supply

35 June 2009- December 2011- EIE/08/653 30/4/2010 Cost-supply France 35 FRANCE price ( /ktOE)Ktonprice Cum. Kton animal waste-421594-421594 Organic waste Industry+HH-424885-426478 common sludges-421326-427805 wet manure017138024943 Verge grass217192125662 paper cardboard21109932136655 wood-waste3986103945265 OSR 20085026345047899 Sunflower 2008501305048029 straw_202075222697570298 dry manure842248470522 straw_2004100892010079441 prunings123291112382352 Perennials 20081303113082384 Maize 200821435121482735 Cereals411193641184671 Sugarbeet 2008415.91150.241685821

36 June 2009- December 2011- EIE/08/653 30/4/2010 Cost-supply Netherlands 36 NETHERLANDSprice ( /ktOE)Ktonprice Cum. Kton animal waste-42507-42507 Organic waste from industry+HH-4210253-4210760 common sludges-42669-4211429 dry manure-21404-2111833 wet manure024834036667 verge grass211362136804 paper cardboard2136322140435 wood-waste2721132742548 OSR 200850125042561 prunings1264012642601 straw_20041309913042700 straw_2020136 42836 Maize 20083008 42844 Sugarbeet 2008 0 42844 Sunflower 2008 0 42844 Cereals 0 42844 Perennials 2008 0 42844

37 June 2009- December 2011- EIE/08/653 30/4/2010 Cost-supply Germany 37 Germany price ( /ktOE)Ktonprice Cummula tive Kton animal waste-42333-42333 bmw-4210792-4211126 common sludges-42529-4211655 dry manure088011743 wet manure013785025528 bermgras216752126202 paper cardboard21226022148804 OSR 20085034425052246 wood-waste6494736461719 straw_200493131429374861 straw_202098155599890420 prunings11041711090836 Perennials 20081488 90844 Maize 2008218260121893444 Cereals41678841694233 Sugarbeet 2008562.415754952.68956294285 Sunflower 2008 0 94285

38 June 2009- December 2011- EIE/08/653 30/4/2010 Cost-supply Poland 38 POLAND price ( /ktOE)Ktonprice Cummula tive Kton animal waste-422138-422138 bmw-4220103-4222241 common sludges-42571-4222812 dry manure02022814 wet manure0363023177 wood-waste1853191828496 paper cardboard2194072137903 bermgras212062138109 prunings476684738777 OSR 20085028235041600 straw_2020100871910050319 straw_2004105483010555150 Perennials 200814824814855397 Maize 2008 0 55397 Sugarbeet 2008 0 55397 Sunflower 2008 0 55397 Cereals 0 55397

39 June 2009- December 2011- EIE/08/653 30/4/2010 Total cost-supply EU 2008 39 -Very large potential at very low price: 1)>50% industrial + household wastes, but now mostly unused or not for bioenergy 2) By-products agriculture (straw, prunings)

40 June 2009- December 2011- EIE/08/653 30/4/2010 Conclusions Largest cheap potential in waste. Improved organisation of collection, treatment, logistics will increase access to this resource By-products from agriculture also have important potential, now still underutilized Sustainability constraints on dedicated cropping are significant both inside and outside EU and will have important effects on economic availability Forestry potential should be included. Will certainly add importantly

41 June 2009- December 2011- EIE/08/653 30/4/2010 Future work Draft results need further critical review and improvements Scenario application to extrapolate present potentials to future technical-economic and sustainable potential Forestry potential still to be included (updated EFI work) Cuttings/pruning from landscape elements, recreational and nature conservation areas should still be mapped (but difficult) 41

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