1. Presentation to Post-Primary Review Working Group – 19 June 2003 Features of the Current Arrangements

2. The Selective System System of grammar and secondary schools 71 grammar schools (63,000 or 40% of pupils) 164 secondary schools (93,000 or 60% of pupils) Differences within the selective system Regional variations in access to places

3. The Selective System in Practice 66% of P7 pupils sat the 2002/03 tests Admission to grammar schools: 35.3% (2002/03) Over/under-subscription Negligible movement between school types until age 16

4. How does the NI system perform compared to other countries?

5. UK Comparisons: 2+ ‘A’ levels A-E

6. UK Comparisons: 5+ GCSEs A*-C

7. UK Comparisons: 5+ GCSE A*-G

8. UK Comparisons: No GCSEs

9. Average GCSE Point Scores MaleFemaleAll Pupils Northern Ireland 34.041.637.7 England37.442.940.1

10. UK Comparisons: Average GCSE Point Scores

11. International Comparisons: PISA and International Adult Literacy Survey Significantly better than OECD average. Around 10 th out of 32 in Reading, Maths and Science. Performed similar to England (and Scotland). One of the widest ranges of achievement. 24% of NI workforce at lowest literacy level.

12. How Does the NI System perform for different groups?

13. % Grade A in Transfer Test by Free School Meal Band 2001/02

14. Average GCSE Point Score by Free School Meal Band (2001/02) for Secondary Schools

15. % of Pupils entitled to Free School Meals Catholic Managed Other Managed Overall Grammar11.73.77.3 Secondary37.022.329.4

16. 5+ GCSEs A*-C for FSM and Non-FSM School Leavers 5+ GCSEs A*-C for FSM and Non-FSM School Leavers

17. 5+ GCSEs A*-G by FSM and Non-FSM School Leavers 5+ GCSEs A*-G by FSM and Non-FSM School Leavers

18. No GCSEs by FSM and Non-FSM School Leavers

19. How does performance in Grammar and Secondary schools compare?

20. GCSE Point Scores for All Pupils

21. Grammar and Secondary Comparisons % achievingSecondaryGrammar 5 or more GCSEs A*-C 3795 5 or more GCSEs A*-G 80100 Average GCSE Point Score 2857

22. GCSE Point Scores for Secondary and Grammar Pupils

23. Comparison of top achieving secondary school pupils with grammar pupils Top 25% of Secondary All Grammar School Leavers School Leavers % % 5+ GCSE’s A*-C 100 96 5+ GCSE’s A*-G 100 99

24. Variation in School Performance 2001/02 Grammar Schools 3+ A Levels A-C 7+ GCSEs A*-C Top 10% 78% 99% Bottom 10% 46% 74% Secondary Schools 5+GCSEs A*-C 5+GCSEs A*-G Top 10% 63% 98% Bottom 10% 12% 53%

25. How Does the NI system perform at post-16?

26. Post-16 Participation Rates SchoolsFEOverall Northern Ireland 44.727.772.4 England*31.333.564.9 2001 Provisional figures for England Sixth Form Colleges included in FE figure for England

27. Post-16 Provision in Secondary Schools Schools% of cohort % of Yr12 secondary pupils No% No 6 th Form 52221727 Limited provision (<80 pupils) 75322539 Of which Repeaters only 15635 No or limited provision 127544266

28. Access To Higher Education From social classes III, IV,V UK27% Scotland27% NI31% Routes to Higher Education 55% from grammar schools 45% from secondary schools, FE Colleges and other sources Majority of working class entrants to HE come through non-grammar routes

29. Demography What impact will demography have on post-primary education?

30. Demography Population projections Impact on post-primary population Impact on secondary schools Impact on grammar schools

31. Population Projections

32. 2001201020202040 11-18 population 212,541195,086172,868158,058 % decrease 081926 Post-Primary Age Population to decline by a quarter by 2040

33. How will this affect post-primary schools?

34. School Population Projections

35. Secondary:Grammar Ratios 20022010201520202025 % Secondary 5956515049 % Grammar 4144495051 By 2020 grammar and secondary ration will be 50:50

36. Impact on Secondary Schools By 2010 - reduction of 12,000 pupils in secondary schools which equates to 21 secondary schools (based on average size of 560) By 2020 - 31,000 pupils (55 schools)

37. Surplus Places 13,000 surplus places in post-primary schools (8%) Almost 70% (113) secondary schools have surplus places Nearly half (76) have 10% or more surplus places

38. Impact on Secondary Schools Viability of some schools – closures, amalgamations Ability mix within schools Impact will be greater in particular areas

39. Impact on Grammar Schools Ability mix within schools ­8% of admissions to grammar schools are Cs or Ds at present ­21 grammar schools with 10% admissions with Cs and Ds in Transfer Test ­ 10 schools with 20% or more Cs and Ds admitted

40. Demography: Key Points Population to fall by a quarter by 2040 Full impact on secondary sector Implications for rationalisation Implications for ability mix in secondary and grammar schools

41. Forces For Change Dissatisfaction with Transfer Test Weaknesses in post-16 provision Curricular change Falling post-primary demography Changing social profile of intakes to HE

42. Forces for Change (Cont) Equality/human rights/inclusion agenda Social cohesion Globalisation/economic development Local Assembly

43. Discussion What issues have been raised by this presentation?