1. Leckebusch et al.: European property damage potentials RT6.2 Meeting Helsinki, 26.-27.4.2007 European property damage potentials: development and application of a simple storm regression model to global and regional simulations G.C. Leckebusch M. Donat U. Ulbrich FU Berlin MSC Napoli

2. Leckebusch et al.: European property damage potentials RT6.2 Meeting Helsinki, 26.-27.4.2007 Economic lossInsured loss Economic and insured loss: Germany 1970 - 1998 Introduction: Storm damages in the past

3. Leckebusch et al.: European property damage potentials RT6.2 Meeting Helsinki, 26.-27.4.2007 Economic and insured losses Source: Münchener Rück, Jahresrückblick Naturkatastrophen 2004

4. Leckebusch et al.: European property damage potentials RT6.2 Meeting Helsinki, 26.-27.4.2007 1000 hPa Stormtrack (Winter) Stormtrack is originally defined as bandpass (2.5-8 days) filtered standard deviation of the geopotential height in 500 hPa Thus, the stormtrack reflects the variability caused by travelling extra-tropical cyclones and high-pressure systems in the mid-latitudes In this study we used the 1000 hPa level, due to data availability, for winter. Data used: On IPCC AR4 Model Data Portal available 20 contributing models

5. Leckebusch et al.: European property damage potentials RT6.2 Meeting Helsinki, 26.-27.4.2007 1000 hPa Stormtrack (Winter) Ulbrich et al., submitted to J. Clim. 20 IPCC GCMs

6. Leckebusch et al.: European property damage potentials RT6.2 Meeting Helsinki, 26.-27.4.2007 NCEP-ReECHAM4 HadAM3PECHAM5 HadCM3 NCEP Validation: Cyclone Track density; All systems Units: Cyclone systems per winter Winter: Oct.-Mar.

7. Leckebusch et al.: European property damage potentials RT6.2 Meeting Helsinki, 26.-27.4.2007 HadCM3ECHAM4 HadAM3PECHAM5 Validation: Cyclone Track density; 5% strongest systems NCEP-Re Units: Cyclone systems per winter NCEP-Re Strong: exceedance of the 95 th percentile of the Laplacian of MSLP

8. Leckebusch et al.: European property damage potentials RT6.2 Meeting Helsinki, 26.-27.4.2007 A2 - Climate Change Signal: Cyclone Track density; All systems ECHAM4 ECHAM5HadAM3P HadCM3 Coloured: 90/95/99 th Significance Level Dashed lines: negative changes Solid lines: positive changes

9. Leckebusch et al.: European property damage potentials RT6.2 Meeting Helsinki, 26.-27.4.2007 A2 - Climate Change: Track density; 5% strongest systems HadCM3 HadAM3PECHAM5 ECHAM4 Coloured: 90/95/99 th Significance Level Dashed lines: negative changes Solid lines: positive changes Leckebusch & Ulbrich (2004) ; Leckebusch et al. (2006)

10. Leckebusch et al.: European property damage potentials RT6.2 Meeting Helsinki, 26.-27.4.2007 A2 - Climate Change: Number of systems: all vs. intense systems Lambert & Fyfe (2006)

11. Leckebusch et al.: European property damage potentials RT6.2 Meeting Helsinki, 26.-27.4.2007 Circulation Weather Types during winter (ONDJFM) in an ensemble of GCMs recent climate: climate change: (A1B)

12. Leckebusch et al.: European property damage potentials RT6.2 Meeting Helsinki, 26.-27.4.2007 Circulation Weather Types on gale days (ONDJFM) recent climate (20C): climate change (A1B-20C):

13. Leckebusch et al.: European property damage potentials RT6.2 Meeting Helsinki, 26.-27.4.2007 98th percentile of daily max. wind speed (ONDJFM) ERA40 ECHAM5-OM1 run1 (MPI-M) ECHAM5-OM1 (DMI) EGMAM 20C A1B-20C

14. Leckebusch et al.: European property damage potentials RT6.2 Meeting Helsinki, 26.-27.4.2007 Storm (loss) days per winter 98th percentile typical threshold for loss damages Storm (loss) day if 98th percentile is exceeded in at least 20% of the investigation area (red box) 20C A1B-20C (98th percentile not adapted) A1B-20C (98th percentile adapted)

15. Leckebusch et al.: European property damage potentials RT6.2 Meeting Helsinki, 26.-27.4.2007 Model theory Loss depends on - local gust wind speed - insured property or amount of forest in the area insured property values can roughly be estimated from population density Loss increases with wind speed above a threshold. Different storm-loss functions have been proposed, a frequent one is: loss ~ v 3. Estimation of future changes in climate extremes and their relation to property damage Following the multi model approach direct use of GCM/RCM output in the impact model

16. Leckebusch et al.: European property damage potentials RT6.2 Meeting Helsinki, 26.-27.4.2007 This wind speed is approx. equal to the 98 th percentile of wind speeds at regular (non-coastal, no mountain) stations in Germany Germany: Insurance companies pay when wind speeds exceed Bft 8 = 17.2 – 20.7 m/s For property damages:

17. Leckebusch et al.: European property damage potentials RT6.2 Meeting Helsinki, 26.-27.4.2007 Loss for normalized cubic wind for Approach based on: Klawa, M. und U. Ulbrich, 2003: A model for the estimation of storm losses and the identification of severe winter storms in Germany. Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences, Vol. 3, 725-732.

18. Leckebusch et al.: European property damage potentials RT6.2 Meeting Helsinki, 26.-27.4.2007 2: GIS (ArcGIS) - including global population distribution data on 1x1 degree grid - including interpolation of forestry data to model grid via GIS (at present: nearest neighbour) - Calculation of accumulated damage potential for different time slices and/or regions 1: Calculation of normalized cubic wind from input data (e.g. ERA40) per year Model structure 3: Fitting the calculated values per year and region to observed losses What have we achieved so far?

19. Leckebusch et al.: European property damage potentials RT6.2 Meeting Helsinki, 26.-27.4.2007 Application of loss model on climate simulations ERA 40 (1971-2000) EH5/OM1, 20C (1971-2000) EH5/OM1, A1B (2071-2100) Mean value0,1395 0,1284 0,1507 Std. deviation0,08940,07070,1494 + 17 % + ~110 %

20. Leckebusch et al.: European property damage potentials RT6.2 Meeting Helsinki, 26.-27.4.2007 Loss ratio: Control Climate Leckebusch et al., 2007, GRL ACC signal (A2):

21. Leckebusch et al.: European property damage potentials RT6.2 Meeting Helsinki, 26.-27.4.2007 Model improvements in ENSEMBLES c165/166c49 1970-20000,780,83 Correlation with insurance data (GdV): Input parameter: Wind gusts (Forecasts!) Overestimation in 1993 Underestimation in 1990 Further investigation with respect to the kind of exceedance

22. Leckebusch et al.: European property damage potentials RT6.2 Meeting Helsinki, 26.-27.4.2007 1993 more weak events than 1990 1990 more extreme exceedances of 98th Percentile than 1993 Approach 2 (dynamic): Loss limit individually adjusted after loss events Approach 1 (static): Loss limit consistently increased GERMANY: Exceedance of 98th Percentile (1971-2000) in ERA40

23. Leckebusch et al.: European property damage potentials RT6.2 Meeting Helsinki, 26.-27.4.2007 dynamic approach P98_jahrP98_winter0.1v_d5000.1v_d10000.1v_d1500 1970-19990,830,900,8770,8830,878 Correlation with real damage data (GdV)

24. Leckebusch et al.: European property damage potentials RT6.2 Meeting Helsinki, 26.-27.4.2007 98th percentile of maximum wind speed (ONDJFM) ERA40 Regional Climate Model analysis: Max of 4 gust forecast

25. Leckebusch et al.: European property damage potentials RT6.2 Meeting Helsinki, 26.-27.4.2007 98th percentile of maximum wind speed (ONDJFM) RCMs forced by ERA40

26. Leckebusch et al.: European property damage potentials RT6.2 Meeting Helsinki, 26.-27.4.2007 GdV ERA40 code 49 ERA40 MaxOf4 ETHZ- CLM CNRM- RM4.5 MPI-M- REMO KNMI- RACMO2 CHMI- ALADIN DMI- HIRHAM SMHI- RCA Korrelation mit GdV (1970-2000)0,890,860,820,790,730,760,750,780,64 Korrelation mit ERA40 code490,970,880,720,820,830,700,860,80 Korrelation mit ERA40 MO40,800,620,69 0,79 0,710,820,79 Mittelwert0,15 0,140,150,160,140,160,15 Standardabweichung0,12 0,110,070,090,10 0,090,100,08

27. Leckebusch et al.: European property damage potentials RT6.2 Meeting Helsinki, 26.-27.4.2007 Availability of data from RT2A: Milestones M2A.2.2/M2A.2.3 Provision of Stream One simulations [...] on servers or on request (due in August 2006) seems NOT fulfilled adequately yet and leads to a delay in further analysis, as even on request data availability seems poor (see table). Availability of GCM data: HadGem1 (METO-HC) Requested, but not made available yet IPSL-CM4 (IPSL)Available at PCMDI (IPCC AR4)* ECHAM5/MPI-OM (MPIMET)Available via CERA / on request ECHAM5/MPI-OM (DMI)Available on request EGMAM (FUB)Available on request CNRM-CM3Available at PCMDI (IPCC AR4)* ARPEGE-MICOM-OASIS (NERSC)Requested, but not made available yet * Output of IPCC AR4 runs at PCMDI is onlay available in a daily resolution (daily mean values). For some analysis we plan to do, 6-hourly values are required. Thus, model output from PCMDI archive is only partly suitable for our analysis in ENSEMBLES. Data problem: (March 2007)