1. 1 Climate System,Climate Prediction and Climate Change Dr.SONG Yan Dept. of Science and Technology Training Training Centre of China Meteorological Administration

2. 2 Ⅲ Adaptation and Mitigation of Climate Change

3. 3 Causes of climate change

4. 4 GHGs Aerosols Land use Human factors Natural factors Solar Natural variability Volcano

5. 5 Land use change Climate change Greenhouse effect Aerosols effect CO 2 CH 4 NO CFCs Sulfate 硫酸盐 Black carbon Nitrate 硝酸盐 Mineral FarmingIrrigationDeforestationUrbanization Possibly anthropogenic factors for climate change Natural factors

6. 6 Anyway, dependence on fossil fuels is a problematic situation.

7. 7 Most of the observed increase in globally-averaged temperatures since the mid-20th century is very likely due to the increase in anthropogenic greenhouse gas concentrations. It is likely that there has been significant anthropogenic warming over the past 50 years averaged over each continent except Antarctica. Conclusions by the IPCC AR4

8. 8 Adaptation and Mitigation

9. 9 Definitions of Adaptation and Mitigation Adaptation is the adjustment in natural or human systems in response to actual or expected climatic stimuli (pl. stimulus) or their effects, which moderates harm or exploits ( 利用） bene'ficial opportunities. Mitigation refers to spe'cific （ 明确的） climate policies will be implemented to reduce greenhouse gas emissions.

10. 10 Differences, similarities between adaptation and mitigation The TAR used the following definitions of climate change mitigation and adaptation. Mitigation: An anthropogenic intervention to reduce the sources or enhance the sinks of greenhouse gases (IPCC, 2001a). Adaptation: Adjustment in natural or human systems in response to actual or expected climatic stimuli or their effects, which moderates harm or exploits beneficial opportunities (IPCC, 2001a).

11. 11 Differences, similarities between adaptation and mitigation It follows from （根据 … 得出） these definitions that mitigation reduces all impacts (positive and negative) of climate change and thus reduces the adaptation challenge, whereas （而） adaptation is selective; it can take advantage of （利用） positive impacts and reduce negative ones (Goklany, 2005).

12. 12 The two options are implemented on the same local or regional scale, and may be 'motivated （发动，推动） by local and regional pri'orities and interests, as well as global concerns( 所关心的事）. Mitigation has global benefits (an'cillary （辅助的） benefits might be realised at the local/regional level), although effective mitigation needs to involve a sufficient number of major greenhouse-gas emitters to foreclose （防止） leakage （泄漏）. Adaptation typically works on the scale of an impacted system, which is regional at best （最多）, but mostly local (although some adaptation might result in spill-overs （外流人口） across national boundaries, for example by changing international co'mmodity （日用品） prices in agricultural or forest-product （林产品） markets). Differences, similarities between adaptation and mitigation

13. 13 Differences, similarities between adaptation and mitigation Expressed as CO2-equivalents （等价物）, emissions reductions achieved by different mitigation actions can be compared and if the costs of implementing the actions are known, their cost-effectiveness （成本效率） can be determined and compared (Moomaw et al., 2001). The benefits of adaptation are more difficult to express in a single metric （公制 的）, impeding （即将发生的，迫在眉睫的） comparisons between adaptation efforts. Moreover, as a result of the predominantly local or regional effect of adaptation, benefits of adaptation will be valued differently depending on the social, economic and political contexts （背景） within which they occur.

14. 14 The benefits of mitigation carried out today will be evidenced ( 显著的） in several decades because of the long residence （居 住 / 停留） time of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere (ancillary （辅助的） benefits such as reduced air pollution are possible in the near term), whereas many adaptation measures would be effective immediately and yield benefits by reducing vulnerability （脆弱性） to climate variability. As climate change continues, the benefits of adaptation (i.e., avoided damage) will increase over time. Thus there is a delay between incurring （招致的） the costs of mitigation and realising （明白） its benefits from smaller climate change, while the time span between expenditures （支出） and returns of adaptation is usually much shorter. Differences, similarities between adaptation and mitigation

15. 15 This difference （支出和回报） is au‘gmented in analyses adopting （采用） positive （绝对的） discount rates （折扣率）. These a'symmetries （不对称） have led to a situation whereby （ 为何） the initiative （主动） for mitigation has tended to stem （阻止） from international agreements and ensuing （继发的） national public policies （国家政策） (sometimes supplemented （补充） by community-based or private-sector （私营成分的） initiatives), whereas the bulk of （大多数） adaptation actions have historically been 'motivated by the self-interest （私利） of affected private actors and communities, possibly fa‘cilitated （由 … 推动 ) by public policies （国家政策）. Differences, similarities between adaptation and mitigation

16. 16 There are a number of ways in which adaptation and mitigation are related （有关系的） at different levels of decision-making. Mitigation efforts can foster （鼓励） adaptive capacity （适应能力） if they e'liminate market failures （故障） and distortions （扭曲）, as well as per‘verse （不正当的） subsidies （补助金） that prevent （妨碍） actors from making decisions on the basis of the true social costs （社会成本） of the available options （方 案）. At a highly aggregated scale, mitigation expenditures （支出） appear to divert （转移） social or private resources and reduce the funds available for adaptation, but in reality the actors and budgets involved （有关的） are different. Both options change relative prices （相对价格）, which can lead to slight adjustments in consumption （消费） and investment （投资） patterns （模式） and thus to changes in the affected economy’s development pathway （方式）, but direct trade-offs are rare. Trade-off: A balancing of adaptation and mitigation when it is not possible to carry out both activities fully at the same time (e.g., due to financial or other constraints). Differences, similarities between adaptation and mitigation

17. 17 Differences, similarities between adaptation and mitigation The implications （含意） of adaptation can be both positive （正面的） and negative （负面的） for mitigation. For example, afforestation （造林） that is part of a regional adaptation strategy also makes a positive contribution to mitigation. In contrast, adaptation actions that require increased energy use from carbon-emitting sources (e.g., indoor cooling) would affect mitigation efforts negatively.

18. 18 Summary of main findings of AR4 Observational evidence from all continents and most oceans shows that many natural systems are being affected by regional climate changes, particularly temperature increases. A global assessment of data since 1970 has shown it is likely that anthropogenic warming has had a discernible （可辨别的） influence on many physical and biological systems. Other effects of regional climate changes on natural and human environments are emerging, although many are difficult to discern due to adaptation and non-climatic drivers. More specific （明确的） information is now available across a wide range of systems and sectors （部门） concerning the nature of future impacts （未来影响的实质）, including for some fields not covered in previous assessments.

19. 19 Summary of main findings of AR4 More specific （明确的） information is now available across the regions of the world concerning future impacts, including for some places not covered in previous assessments. Magnitudes of impact can now be estimated more systematically for a range of （一系列） possible increases in global average temperature. Impacts due to altered （被改变的） frequencies and intensities of extreme weather, climate and sea-level events are very likely to change. Some large-scale climate events have the potential （潜力） to cause very large impacts, especially after the 21 st century.

20. 20 Summary of main findings of AR4 Impacts of climate change will vary regionally but, aggregated and discounted （折算） to the present, they are very likely to impose （影响） net annual costs （年成本） which will increase over time as global temperatures increase. Some adaptation is occurring now, to （针对） observed and projected future climate change, but on a limited basis. Adaptation will be necessary to address （ deal with/ 应对） impacts resulting from the warming which is already unavoidable due to past emissions. A wide array of （大量的） adaptation options （方案） is available, but more extensive adaptation than is currently occurring is required （但是还 需要比现在更为广泛的适应措施） to reduce vulnerability to future climate change. There are barriers （阻碍）, limits （限制） and costs （成本）, but these are not fully understood （认识）.

21. 21 Summary of main findings of AR4 Vulnerability to climate change can be ex'acerbated （加剧） by the presence of other stresses （压力、危机）. Future vulnerability depends not only on climate change but also on development pathway （路径）. Sustainable development can reduce vulnerability to climate change, and climate change could impede （阻碍） nations’ abilities to achieve （实现） sustainable development pathways. Many impacts can be avoided, reduced or delayed by mitigation. （通过 减缓能够避免、减轻或延迟许多影响） 。 A portfolio （ the range of products/ 一揽子措施 ) of adaptation and mitigation measures can diminish the risks （降低风险） associated with climate change. Portfolio: A set of actions to achieve a particular goal. A climate policy portfolio may include adaptation, mitigation, research and technology development, as well as other actions aimed at reducing vulnerability to climate change.

22. 22 Problems and gaps between China and Developed Countries

23. 23 Problems and gaps in observations, in particular in developing countries 1. Insu'fficiency of observations Sparseness （稀疏） of observational stations Insufficiency （不足） of long-term climate data series Lackness of observations for some key variables 2. Lowering representation of observations （观测 资料缺乏代表性） 'Inhomoge'neities in many climate data series Lack of meta-data （数据元） for observational records Effects of urbanization on air temperature records 3. Weakness of capacity Difficulties to raise funds Lack of professionals in managing and analyzing of data

24. 242015-10-3 Needs for improving observations of developing countries 1. Constructing national observational systems A better in situ observational network Development and application of satellite products An 'integrated observational station network Reconstruction of proxy （代用数据） or paleo- （古） data series 2. Improving observational settings More ho'mogenous and un-biased （有偏的） data series Development of meta-data for adjusting in-homogeneities 3. Strengthening capacity In data storage and management In building of institutions （制度）

25. 25 Suggestions to improve observations of developing countries 1.Encouraging regional cooperative observations- e.g. Asia-Pacific GEOSS, APN, MAHASRI, MAIRS 2.Increasing the roles of UNFCCC, WMO, UNEP, WCRP, IGBP, GCOS and GEOSS 3.Maximizing the roles of the GEF, SCCF, the Kyoto Protocol Adaptation Fund and so on 4.Strengthening the roles of regional climate centers e.g. Beijing Climate Center and Tokyo Climate Center 5.Raising the awareness of publics and policy-makers by organizations inc. NGOs （ Non-governmental organizations ）

26. 262015-10-3 China’s experiences: achievements A good basic observation network, and China is upgrading the network under the framework of the China-GCOS program Operational monitoring of atmospheric compositions, energy budget, water and carbon cycles, ecosystem and land use, ice and snow, et al. Submissions of real-time observational data of China-GCOS stations and historical data from national stations to the WDC-Meteorology An operational system of climatic monitoring, prediction and impact assessment in the BCC Cooperative observation and data application programs

27. 27 Monitoring of weather and climate extremes by CMA Cold wave Dust storm Tropical cyclone Drought monitoring

28. 282015-10-3 Measures to further improve the observation system of China  Increasing observational stations in data-sparse areas  Maintaining the representation of observational settings  Monitoring the variables other than basic climate variables  Developing satellite climate products  Training young and local experts  Coordinating observational programs among different ministries （部门）  Enhancing regional and international cooperation

29. 29 Questions? The End Comments?

30. 30 Assignments 1 Please give the definitions of Adaptation, Vulnerability and Mitigation. 2 What are causes for climate change? 3 Understand the differences and similarities between adaptation and mitigation of climate change. 3 Please understand the main findings of IPCC AR4. 4 What are problems and gaps between China and Developed Countries?