1. 1.4 Demographic Change Is urbanisation a solution or a problem for improving sanitation? Learning objectives: to gain insights about the role of demography in sanitation planning and implementation Jan-Olof Drangert, Linköping University, Sweden

2. The Urban Sanitation Challenge World population (in billions): 2000 2050 (estimate) Total 6 Rural 3 Urban 3 3 6 Jan-Olof Drangert, Linköping University, Sweden Thus, new housing on virgin land in new cities provides excellent opportunities for new sanitation options to fulfil the Millennium Development Goals for sanitation 9

3. Population growth rates and the proportion living in informal settlements: means for the largest cities (%) % Source: UNDP& Unicef 2003 LA & C = Latin America and the Caribbean

4. Treated waste- water City council capacity to do its part Source: UNDP& Unicef 2003 % Proportion of wastewater being effectively treated

5. Demografic patterns are decisive: The growth-infrastructure hypotheses Population Time transi- tion Slow develop- ment of the infrastructure Lowering portion or even absolute decrease of infrastructure Rapid improvement Jan-Olof Drangert, Linköping University, Sweden

6. How to manage sanitation arrangements? Turn-key management where the utility (private or public) provides the service and the residents just pay the bill Own-key management where single households or housing associations initiate, build and control, while they put to use available skills, materials, and other local resources Turn-key Own-key WC & sewerage Dry urine- diverting toilet Dug latrine Aqua privy Jan-Olof Drangert. Linköping University, Sweden A key question is about control, not decentralisation. Two extremes:

7. Example : Evolution of w & s in Kisumu town, Kenya 1963200019501900 Turn-key Own- key Jan-Olof Drangert, Linköping University, Sweden 350,000 200,000 300,000 100,000 50,000 Population Indepen- dence

8. Example: Evolution of w & s in Norrköping, Sweden Jan-Olof Drangert, Linköping University, Sweden Norrköping (thousands) First piped water Town area expansion

9. Hypotheses on best management option Population transi- tion own-key Jan-Olof Drangert, Linköping University, Sweden proportions Turn-key Time

10. Water Closets becoming popular in capital city Newly installed WCs discharging to ditches, Hagley Road Ordure is emptied anywhere at nightfall; The citys first public wash house opened in Kent Street Mind where you tread, Sir, for the children have been here' One third of city using unimproved pit latrines First sewage farm acquired City trying to convert to bucket latrines as improvement 'One in three artisan families still had to share external toilet with neighbours' 45% households access bucket latrines (1 per 10 HHs) 15% using unimproved pit latrines; Over half houses get WCs - most still outside open 'drainage [in one slum court] is so vile that the air seems positively putrid' 20% lacking a WC Still shared toilets for slums Household toilets generally achieved 'Cost reflective tariffs' required for newly privatised providers (300 year sewer replacement cycle?) Source: Cranfield university, UK Economic development and w&s in Cranfield, UK National GDP per person real with 0.88% and 2.15% per year trend lines

11. Evolution of indoor water taps in rural Sweden 19001950 100% 10 Mil 17% 2000 50% 29% 63% 70% 10% 90% Gradual improvement towards full coverage BUT, what about the impact of urbanisation? 5 Mil Jan-Olof Drangert, Linköping University, Sweden

12. Why do we often act as if we were only a few hundred million people on earth? Small farmers understand and practise reuse, but urban residents do not Ever more people live in big villages and towns Most farmers have had access to chemical fertilisers this far Change comes with a cost But, there is also a saving; better food security Local experience global understanding Jan-Olof Drangert, Linköping University, Sweden However we still act as if we were a few hundred million people on earth