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Brendan O’Neil Managing Director IHS Global Insight June 4, 2013.

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Presentation on theme: "Brendan O’Neil Managing Director IHS Global Insight June 4, 2013."— Presentation transcript:

1 Brendan O’Neil Managing Director IHS Global Insight June 4, 2013

2 Copyright © 2011 IHS Inc. All Rights Reserved. About IHS IHS (NYSE: IHS) is the leading source of information, insight and analytics in critical areas that shape today’s business landscape. Businesses and governments in more than 165 countries around the globe rely on the comprehensive content, expert independent analysis and flexible delivery methods of IHS to make high-impact decisions and develop strategies with speed and confidence. IHS has been in business since 1959 and became a publicly traded company on the New York Stock Exchange in 2005. Headquartered in Englewood, Colorado, USA, IHS is committed to long-term, sustainable growth and employs more than 6,000 people in more than 30 countries around the world.

3 US Economic Outlook

4 © 2013, IHS Inc. No portion of this presentation may be reproduced, reused, or otherwise distributed in any form without prior written consent. The economy’s fundamentals are improving, but fiscal policy headwinds will restrain near-term growth. We expect the federal spending sequester to last through September, taking 0.4 percentage point off 2013 real GDP growth, compared with a no-sequester case. Monetary policy will remain accommodative into 2015. Housing markets will continue their resurgence, supporting growth. Consumers will cautiously increase spending in response to gains in asset values, employment, and income. The US energy boom is creating jobs, investment, and a competitive advantage. Real GDP growth will pick up from 2.0% this year to 2.8% in 2014. Upside and downside risks are evenly balanced. The US economy continues its uneven expansion

5 © 2013, IHS Inc. No portion of this presentation may be reproduced, reused, or otherwise distributed in any form without prior written consent. 2012201320142015 Real GDP 2.22.02.83.2 Consumption 1.92.22.5 Residential investment 12.116.318.520.1 Business fixed investment 8.04.76.67.2 Federal government -2.2-5.30.1-1.5 State & local government -1.4-0.8-0.10.7 Exports 3.42.65.15.4 Imports 2.42.35.34.2 (Percent change) US economic growth by sector

6 © 2013, IHS Inc. No portion of this presentation may be reproduced, reused, or otherwise distributed in any form without prior written consent. 2012201320142015 Industrial production 3.63.23.03.3 Payroll employment 1.71.51.61.8 Light-vehicle sales (Millions) 14.415.315.716.2 Housing starts (Millions) 0.780.971.271.57 Consumer Price Index 2.11.41.6 Core CPI 2.11.92.01.8 Brent crude oil price ($/barrel) 1121059389 Federal funds rate (%) 0.10.2 10-year Treasury yield (%) 1.82.02.53.0 (Percent change unless noted) Other key US indicators

7 © 2013, IHS Inc. No portion of this presentation may be reproduced, reused, or otherwise distributed in any form without prior written consent. The most likely outcome is continued moderate economic growth. Fiscal tightening is under way, with the expiration of the payroll tax cut, substantial tax increases for high-income households, and spending restraints. Real GDP growth will pick up in 2014 and 2015, led by strengthening housing markets and business investment. Upside and downside risks are evenly balanced. The major downside risks are: An intensified debt crisis and deepening recession in Europe. An oil-price shock resulting from supply disruptions in the Middle East. On the upside, easing credit conditions and a stronger housing-market recovery could spark faster US growth. Bottom line for the US economy

8 Regional Outlook

9 © 2013, IHS Inc. No portion of this presentation may be reproduced, reused, or otherwise distributed in any form without prior written consent. Employment: Top Performers 2012 * Unemployment rate in December 2012.

10 © 2013, IHS Inc. No portion of this presentation may be reproduced, reused, or otherwise distributed in any form without prior written consent. Continued modest job growth in 2013 2.3% Percent -0.8 to 0.7 0.7 to 1.0 1.1 to 1.4 1.5 to 3.1

11 © 2013, IHS Inc. No portion of this presentation may be reproduced, reused, or otherwise distributed in any form without prior written consent. … Picking up in 2014 2.3% Percent 0.9 to 1.4 1.4 to 1.6 1.6 to 1.9 1.9 to 2.7

12 © 2013, IHS Inc. No portion of this presentation may be reproduced, reused, or otherwise distributed in any form without prior written consent. Ohio Employment Forecast

13 © 2013, IHS Inc. No portion of this presentation may be reproduced, reused, or otherwise distributed in any form without prior written consent. Ohio Wage Gains (nominal total wages and salaries)

14 © 2013, IHS Inc. No portion of this presentation may be reproduced, reused, or otherwise distributed in any form without prior written consent. (Percent unless otherwise noted) Ohio Forecast Summary 2011201220132014 Employment 1.31.50.61.2 Unemployment Rate8.77.27.06.7 Personal Income 5.43.82.44.4 Housing Starts (000)13.416.519.524.6 Retail Sales 8.35.42.82.4 Real Gross State Product1.12.21.12.1

15 Economic Contributions of Unconventional Oil & Gas

16 © 2013, IHS Inc. No portion of this presentation may be reproduced, reused, or otherwise distributed in any form without prior written consent. Unconventional Oil and Gas Plays in North America Enough to satisfy more than 100 years of consumption at current rates

17 © 2013, IHS Inc. No portion of this presentation may be reproduced, reused, or otherwise distributed in any form without prior written consent. Nearly $5.1 Trillion in Cumulative Capital Investments are Expected to be Made Between 2012 and 2035. Spending will feed into broader the broader supply chain through capital-intensive purchases of heavy equipment, technical skills and services, and information technology.

18 © 2013, IHS Inc. No portion of this presentation may be reproduced, reused, or otherwise distributed in any form without prior written consent. From 2012 to 2035, the Employment Contribution of the Unconventional Oil and Gas Industry will Double The greatest future job growth will occur between 2012 and 2020 – 3 million jobs by 2020.

19 Copyright © 2011 IHS Inc. All Rights Reserved. Impact of Unconventionals on the US Economy in 2020 Producing States Non-Producing States Top 10Other Top 10 Other Extensive Supply Chain will spread Economic Contribution beyond Producing States…

20 © 2013, IHS Inc. No portion of this presentation may be reproduced, reused, or otherwise distributed in any form without prior written consent. Top 20 States for Unconventional Related Employment - 2012

21 © 2013, IHS Inc. No portion of this presentation may be reproduced, reused, or otherwise distributed in any form without prior written consent. Top 20 States for Unconventional Related Employment - 2025

22 © 2013, IHS Inc. No portion of this presentation may be reproduced, reused, or otherwise distributed in any form without prior written consent. OH Revenue Associated with Unconventional Activity

23 © 2013, IHS Inc. No portion of this presentation may be reproduced, reused, or otherwise distributed in any form without prior written consent. Upstream Development Causing a Ripple Effect Through the Economy Employment Contribution in 2020 Upstream unconventional oil and natural gas activity, on average, demonstrates one of the larger employment multipliers. On average direct employment will represent about 20% of all job resulting from unconventional oil and gas activity with the balance contributed by indirect and induced employment.

24 Copyright © 2011 IHS Inc. All Rights Reserved. U.S. Downstream Investment will total $217 billion over next six years

25 Striking the Balance

26 © 2013, IHS Inc. No portion of this presentation may be reproduced, reused, or otherwise distributed in any form without prior written consent. Concern is Motivated by a Variety of Risks, Impacts, and Uncertainties Local Macro Stakeholder Uncertainty Impact Management Scale of Impact Source of Concerns Climate Change Water Use Road & Traffic Air Quality Public Services Seismicity Drinking Water Complicating Factors Priorities unique to each play & community Local & national debate inform each other Temptation to confuse the means with the ends Community preparedness Politicized confidence in regulators Jurisdictional conflicts All pay for the sins of the few Uneven distribution of benefits Wildlife

27 © 2013, IHS Inc. No portion of this presentation may be reproduced, reused, or otherwise distributed in any form without prior written consent. Timeline for shale gas development and production 27

28 © 2013, IHS Inc. No portion of this presentation may be reproduced, reused, or otherwise distributed in any form without prior written consent. Rapid increase in local bans and moratoriums New York State moratorium since 2010, future unclear Municipalities: 48 bans, 106 moratoriums, 91 more in development* Pennsylvania Regional moratorium in the Delaware River Basin Municipalities: At least 5 prohibitions, including the city of Pittsburgh Act 13 passed in February 2012 Colorado Longmont Fort Collins Ohio Yellow Springs *As of 2/12/13. Source: fracktracker.org

29 © 2013, IHS Inc. No portion of this presentation may be reproduced, reused, or otherwise distributed in any form without prior written consent. NY Moratoria Source: fracktracker.org

30 Dunn County, North Dakota Growing Pains within County Government Services 30

31 © 2013, IHS Inc. No portion of this presentation may be reproduced, reused, or otherwise distributed in any form without prior written consent. High ratio of splitting of properties. ( small acreage sales) Increase valuation of property. (land priced by the square foot) $50,000 homes in 2006 have sold for $175,000 in 2011. The property valuations have increased by 19.4% since 2010. Increased recording because of sales & splits. Numerous requests for valuation of land. Creations of subdivisions have increased work load. Higher request for determination of land ownership.(many old problems arise daily because of the lack of good records) Department has purchased a service agreement with GIS tracking system. Huge demand for property for housing and industrial business. (truck parting, RV sites, mobile home parks, small shops, etc.) Source: Dunn County Commissioner Daryl Dukart Tax Department

32 © 2013, IHS Inc. No portion of this presentation may be reproduced, reused, or otherwise distributed in any form without prior written consent. 2006 numbers 765 traffic violations 213 criminal court cases 205 civil cases 3 staff employees Recorders office collected $147,107 Oil revenue starts to come into the county 2576 traffic violation 377 criminal court cases 298 civil cases 6 staff employees Recorders office collected $603,095 Addition of a new Courtroom Moved to digital documents Clerk of Court 2012 estimates Source: Dunn County Commissioner Daryl Dukart

33 © 2013, IHS Inc. No portion of this presentation may be reproduced, reused, or otherwise distributed in any form without prior written consent. 2006 1200 miles of road with only 27 paved miles Very few highly impacted roads from truck traffic General road maintenance was two to three operation per year on all roads General road surface materials used are gravel or scoria Annual cost to maintain was about $1500 per mile 1202 miles of roads with only 25 paved miles 330 miles of heavily impacted truck traffic routes (over 100 trucks per day) Weekly maintenance is required on the 330 miles of highly impacted roads Cost to maintain impacted roads is $26,000 per mile annually Materials for road surfacing are getting tighter in supply because of competition from the energy sector Roads and Traffic 2011 Source: Dunn County Commissioner Daryl Dukart

34 © 2013, IHS Inc. No portion of this presentation may be reproduced, reused, or otherwise distributed in any form without prior written consent. 2006 3 employees 4 vehicles Average calls per day 6 9 employees 9 vehicles Average calls per day 46 Large amounts of overtime causing stress to employees and equipment Looking at adding another employee and vehicle on July 1 st 2012 Budget has increased by 300% over three years Sheriff’s Department Q1 2012 Source: Dunn County Commissioner Daryl Dukart

35 © 2013, IHS Inc. No portion of this presentation may be reproduced, reused, or otherwise distributed in any form without prior written consent. The States Attorney Office has seen a substantial increase in child abuse and neglect, domestic violence, violent crime, alcohol related offenses, and illegal drugs. Traffic and alcohol related offenses combined had a substantial increase of 300%. Financial problems combined with alcohol and illegal drugs appear to the be the gateway for an increase in domestic violence and child abuse and neglect cases. Most of the increased case load involves individuals who have recently relocated to western North Dakota to pursue employment opportunities in the Bakken. States Attorney Office Source: Dunn County Commissioner Daryl Dukart

36 © 2013, IHS Inc. No portion of this presentation may be reproduced, reused, or otherwise distributed in any form without prior written consent. Bakken Shale Development Impacts Positive: Created many new job opportunities (many $50,000 plus salary type of jobs ) Increased salary levels in western North Dakota Brought additional money to the farm and ranch communities Creation of many new businesses in the area Increase sales of trucks, cars, and farm equipment Has changed our life styles Negative: Estimated 3200 outside workers drive to Dunn County daily to work Overload of patrons at restaurants, gas stations, and stores of all kinds Lack of employees Detrition of roads because of heavy traffic loads Traffic everywhere Total stress on all county departments is greater than we expected Lack of funds to meet demands Source: Dunn County Commissioner Daryl Dukart

37 © 2013, IHS Inc. No portion of this presentation may be reproduced, reused, or otherwise distributed in any form without prior written consent. Takeaways Fiscal and social pressures ride shotgun with prosperity. There is a structure to environmental regulation at federal, state, and local levels, as well as limitations. However, some of the boundaries are blurry, and power struggles ensue. Local authorities are entering the fray, creating a new and highly uncertain dimension of regulation. Discussion Questions Can industry and environmental stakeholders really work together? Are Energy Security & Economic Development incompatible Environmental Protection & Health Safety? Is “political entrepreneurialism” trumping the political process? What steps can industry take? Collaboration with regulators, communities, NGOs? What aspects of environmental regulation are most important, and what level of government is responsible? What are the mutually agreeable best practices to optimize opportunities and minimize risks? Will lingering uncertainty be the risk premium that deters future investment? Is disenfranchisement the source of local opposition?

38 Thank you Brendan O’Neil Managing Director IHS Global Insight brendan.oneil@ihs.com


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