1. Threats and opportunities- navigating in stormy waters. Mike McGrath – editor of Interlending & document Supply

2. The STM report

3. I will cover... 1. Introduction 2. Plan B and its lessons 3. Title and article usage 4. Open Access – Gold and Green etc 5. Patron Driven Acquisition 6.Renting not owning 7. ILL trends – UK and global 8. Opportunities 9. Conclusion 10.References

4. Plan B and its lessons Getting tough with publishers in 2011 Lesson 1 – monopolistic power of the publishers Lesson 2 – Manipulative pricing Lesson 3 – ILL and Big Deals Lesson 4 – Cumulative loss of access

5. Phil Sykes “History suggests that mergers like this are bad news for universities, because they further increase the power of publishers in a market that already conspicuously lacks a competitive dynamic.”

6. Title usage but no article usage 25% of subscribed titles accounted for between 70 and 90% of use – depending on the institutions and subject. (CIBER research) And another analysis by CIBER of OhioLink’s 6000 Big Deal titles showed that “half of all journals account for about 93% of usage” – therefore 3,000 titles account for only 7% of usage.

7. % of articles open access DateNo of refs No of OAs then %No of OAs now % 2011-39.44312282353 2012-40.13116521961 2012-40.2316132581 2012-40.33614392359 2012-40.4239401128 2013 41.1137541077 2013-41.22814501660 2013-41.3332370 2013-41.4312168 2014-42.1311961 2014-42.2291966 2014-42.3231357 2014-42.4231357 2015-43.1291655 2015-43.2302067

8. Growth in Open access articles

9. Number of searchable titles

10. OA progress - UK - Finch (2007)– Gold OA US – OSTP(2013)/ FASTR(2013)/ CHORUS(2014)/ SHARES (2014) EU-Horizon 2020 (2014) Gold OA – who pays? Funders and universities Convergence and access Open Mirror/CORE

11. The cost of Gold OA “In one recent year, one institution we spoke to spent more than £28,000 in subscriptions with just one publisher, and also published 12 journal articles with the same company. Those 12 APCs amounted to an extra £21,000 paid by the university – a 71 per cent increase in charges from that publisher.”

12. The cost of Gold OA (2) “ These 12 articles are free immediately for everyone in the world but that one university has to pay the price - its equivalent to about 3000 electronic ILLs from the British Library – just a thought”.

13. COnnecting REpositories “The mission of CORE (COnnecting REpositories) is to aggregate all open access research outputs from repositories and journals worldwide and make them available to the public” (CORE web site)

14. PDA “ Launching patron driven acquisition through interlibrary loan requires extensive planning, interdepartmental cooperation and enough forethought to make the program stick”. (Schmidt, ILDS 40.4. 2012).

15. Patron Driven Acquisition “Q[uestion]: PDA always seems to be about books. Doesn’t the same principle apply to journals? A[nswer]: Absolutely. The journal subscription is a fundamentally irrational way to buy access to articles; it’s a way of buying lots of content you don’t need in order to ensure access to some content that you do need (while excluding other big batches of content, which may also contain articles you need). PDA principles apply to journal content at the article level: ideally, libraries should expose huge and comprehensive ‘collections’ of un-acquired journal articles to their patrons, and buy only those that their patrons actually download. A certain number of paid downloads should result in permanent site-wide access (on the assumption that multiple uses of a single article demonstrates broad need on that campus). The details of such an arrangement would have to be a matter of negotiation with the publisher; the most important detail, obviously, will be price per article” Rick Anderson – Library Director – University of Utah

16. Opportunities One or two click ILL A filter for OA Involvement in new services Free ILL And still plenty of bread and butter!

17. References

18. Contact details Contact me at: mike@mikemcgrath.org.uk