1. General Energy Research Department Florence 24.11.04 ETSAP Workshop T.F.Schulz 1/19 Steps towards the 2000 Watt Society in Switzerland Thorsten F. Schulz Leonardo Barreto, Socrates Kypreos, Alexander Wokaun General Energy Research Department, Energy Economics Group Paul Scherrer Institute ETSAP Workshop, Florenz, 22 - 26. November 2004

2. General Energy Research Department Florence 24.11.04 ETSAP Workshop T.F.Schulz 2/19 Steps towards a 2000 W Society Outline Definition of a 2000 W Society total and fossil energy per person, time-depended reduction aims Model Assumptions population, GDP, electricity sector, useful energy demand Results: Reduction path towards a 2000 W Society primary energy (per capita), relevance of new technologies CO 2 emissions, costs of the intermediate goal Concluding Remarks

3. General Energy Research Department Florence 24.11.04 ETSAP Workshop T.F.Schulz 3/19 Factor 1.6 Factor 2.5 Factor 2Factor 6 Primary Energy Consumption in Watt / Person Fossil: Global Aim Vision of the 2000 Watt Society Source: M. Koschenz, A. Pfeiffer, EMPA, September 2004 “ 2000 Watt Fossil Society“ Other Renewable Energies Hydropower Nuclear Energy Carriers Fossil Energy Carriers Western Europe, Scenario C1 [Nakicenovic, Grübler, McDonald, 1998] Scenario IV, Fossil Energy [Eckerie, 1997] Fossil Primary Energy Consumption without Net Imports of Goods Total Primary Energy, incl. Net Imports of Goods CO2 – Law: 42.3Mio t CO2 ( 5.6 t CO2/Person) Aim: Total Primary Energy / (Capita &Time) = 2000 W

4. General Energy Research Department Florence 24.11.04 ETSAP Workshop T.F.Schulz 4/19 Population and GDP development Source: BFS(2001), Szenarien zur Bevölkerungsentwicklung der Schweiz 2000-2060 SECO (2004), Langfristige Szenarien für das GDP, not published

5. General Energy Research Department Florence 24.11.04 ETSAP Workshop T.F.Schulz 5/19 Assumption Regarding Electricity

6. General Energy Research Department Florence 24.11.04 ETSAP Workshop T.F.Schulz 6/19 Useful Energy Demand 2000 - 2050 SectorGrowth [%] Agriculture16.5 Commerce27.0 Industry (chemical, other)28.8 Industry (iron and steel, pulp and paper, metals)23.5 Households7.5 Transportation (aviation, navigation, rail)94.3 Transportation (road)41.1

7. General Energy Research Department Florence 24.11.04 ETSAP Workshop T.F.Schulz 7/19 Primary Energy per Capita Development 2000 – 2050 Aim: Reduction of Fossil Energy by Half

8. General Energy Research Department Florence 24.11.04 ETSAP Workshop T.F.Schulz 8/19 Effect on the Primary Energy Use

9. General Energy Research Department Florence 24.11.04 ETSAP Workshop T.F.Schulz 9/19 Final Energy Use – Residential Heating

10. General Energy Research Department Florence 24.11.04 ETSAP Workshop T.F.Schulz 10/19 Final Energy Use – Motorcar Sector Baseline Scenario 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160 20002005201020152020202520302035204020452050 [ PJ ] Diesel Gasoline

11. General Energy Research Department Florence 24.11.04 ETSAP Workshop T.F.Schulz 11/19 Final Energy Use – Motorcar Sector New Technologies 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 200020102020203020402050 [ PJ ] Gasoline + Diesel (conv.) Gasoline (advanced) Gasoline Hybrid Natural Gas Natural Gas Hybrid Methanol Fuel Cell Hydrogen Fuel Cell

12. General Energy Research Department Florence 24.11.04 ETSAP Workshop T.F.Schulz 12/19 Primary Energy Use - Share of Biomass Technologies 0 20 40 60 80 100 20002005201020152020202520302035204020452050 [ PJ ] Pellet CombustionConv. Heating SystemCHP (>2MWel) Biogas SFHMethanationFischer-Tropsch Synthesis Hydrogen from BiomassPotential

13. General Energy Research Department Florence 24.11.04 ETSAP Workshop T.F.Schulz 13/19 CO 2 - Emissions: Baseline Scenario

14. General Energy Research Department Florence 24.11.04 ETSAP Workshop T.F.Schulz 14/19 CO 2 -Emissions: 2000 Watt Society Factor 2

15. General Energy Research Department Florence 24.11.04 ETSAP Workshop T.F.Schulz 15/19 CO 2 - Emissions in the Transport Sector

16. General Energy Research Department Florence 24.11.04 ETSAP Workshop T.F.Schulz 16/19 Deadweight Loss Q S D S S´ D P Eq2 Eq1 Eq3 Eq1: Baseline Equilibrium Eq2: 2 kW per Capita Constraint Partial Equilibrium with Elastic Demands Eq3: Baseline Demand – Demand Reduction

17. General Energy Research Department Florence 24.11.04 ETSAP Workshop T.F.Schulz 17/19 Comparison to the GDP

18. General Energy Research Department Florence 24.11.04 ETSAP Workshop T.F.Schulz 18/19 Concluding Remarks Cutting the fossil primary energy by half until 2050 seems to be possible from a technical and economical perspective innovative Vehicle-Powertrain building configuration, heating systems more efficient industrial processes  The impact on the GDP would be significant but affordable; the share of the energy system cost on the GDP would drop.  Already the contemplated aim results in significant structural changes in the energy system increased use of solid biomass

19. General Energy Research Department Florence 24.11.04 ETSAP Workshop T.F.Schulz 19/19 Acknowledgments The PSI-Energy Economics Group acknowledges the financial support of the NCCR-Project and the work of Maryse Labriet Work has been directed by Prof. Alexander Wokaun and was first presented to the SATW Annual Congress: “Anforderungen an ein Nachhaltiges Energiesystem” Lausanne, CH; September, 2004 Calculations were done by Thorsten Schulz with the support of Socrates Kypreos and Leonardo Barreto