1. Syros Seminar_2 12/7-08_Dalum1 IT-infrastructure: Is the present wireless broadband Panacea (’hype’) a potential threat to the basic needs of a modern society? Syros seminar, 12 July 2008 Bent Dalum, Department of Business Studies, DRUID/IKE & Center f. TeleInFrastructure Aalborg University, Denmark bd@business.aau.dk - www.business.aau.dk/~bd

2. Syros Seminar_2 12/7-08_Dalum2 Cellular News 28/3-08 “As consumer demand for mobile broadband services reaches critical mass - telecom operators can expect that 50 percent of the European population will access the internet through broadband on their mobile phones by 2012, according to the seventh annual research report from Exane BNP Paribas and Arthur D. Little.”

3. Syros Seminar_2 12/7-08_Dalum3 Let me play the Advocate of the Devil for a few moments Why bother about the wired infrastructure, let alone fibers to the home (FTTH)? Why not leave the IT-infrastructure issue to the mobile phone operators? Can’t they fix all the problems by 3.5G (‘Turbo 3G’) or WiMAX (‘wireless ADSL’)?

4. Syros Seminar_2 12/7-08_Dalum4 Technological life cycles The technological life cycles of the mobile communications industry (Dalum et al. 2002)

5. Syros Seminar_2 12/7-08_Dalum5 4G Communication Systems Cellular phone systems, such as 2G, 2.5 G, 3G, and 3.5G WPANs, WLAN/WiFi IEEE 802.11x, WiMAX IEEE 802.16x, Convergence: what 4G originally was about (Ramjee Prasad, CTIF, 2003) Broadcasting/Satellite Communication Fixed phone systems/wired networks Internet

6. Syros Seminar_2 12/7-08_Dalum6 What 4G apparently will be about? A ‘linear’ extension of the present 3G concept? AT&T, Verizon have agreed in November 08 on the W-CDMA based LTE (FDD) as their 4G platform. Vodafone has joined this ‘club’. China Mobile is involved in LTE as the 4G platform as well, but with the TDD variant. At least in a public declaration at the annual Barcelona conference early 2008 If LTE-FDD and LTE-TDD will be able to communicate, there will be potentially be one world platform?

7. Syros Seminar_2 12/7-08_Dalum7 Technological life cycles – Mobile Technology. The “Nordic-EU track”

8. Syros Seminar_2 12/7-08_Dalum8 The present ‘Turbo 3G’ hype 3.5G (‘Turbo 3G’) is being rolled-out – in DK massively during 2008 In DK: 3.6 Mbps moving towards 7.2Mbps in the not too distant future Turbo 3G = “The wireless Internet” or “wireless broadband”, i.e. after some 7-8 years 3G can finally deliver the hype-dreams from 1999/2000 Potential reaction in the general public: why do ‘ordinary’ consumers need cables/FTTH?

9. Syros Seminar_2 12/7-08_Dalum9 WCDMA-HSPA Key Facts 1 (GSA March 08) - 211 commercial WCDMA operators in 91 countries - WCDMA technology in use by over 72% of 293 commercial 3G operators - Over 179 million WCDMA subscribers (Q4 07); 6.9 million monthly growth in 2H 07 - 80 million WCDMA subscriptions added in 2007 i.e. over 81% growth - 185 of 211 commercial WCDMA operators launched HSDPA (87.6% = 7 out of 8) - 80 HSDPA operators commercially launched during 2007; annual growth of 80%

10. Syros Seminar_2 12/7-08_Dalum10 WCDMA-HSPA Key Facts 2 (GSA March 08) - Over 62% of commercial HSDPA operators support 3.6 Mbps peak or higher - Over 20% of commercial HSDPA operators support 7.2 Mbps peak or higher - 34 HSUPA operators commercially launched in 26 countries - Over 1.1 billion GSM & WCDMA-HSDPA subscribers in HSDPA-enabled networks

11. Syros Seminar_2 12/7-08_Dalum11 Developing countries Will ‘Turbo 3G’ (in the near future in faster variants) and WiMAX move the focus away from FTTH in these countries, because of enormous problems with laying out cables? WiMAX is spreading faster in developing countries right now.

12. Syros Seminar_2 12/7-08_Dalum12 Victim of a kind of ‘optical illusion’? Compare with digital cameras and cell phones Whenever the cellphones increase their Megapixel capacity, digital cameras do as well, i.e. parallel shifts upwards. An analogy to the wireless-wirelined relation?

13. Syros Seminar_2 12/7-08_Dalum13 If the IT-infrastructure is left unregulated to the telecom operators – i.e the ‘market’? The geographical periphery will probably be the looser without an adequate infrastructure for a modern society The geographical centers may loose, at least partly, as well The emerging ‘turbo 3G’ hype will not solve the fundamental infrastructural problems …but may get the role of a ‘miracle drug’.