1. 1 MDG Needs Assessment: Methodology and Costing Tajikistan Tuya Altangerel UNDP Tajikistan July 2005

2. 2 Purpose and Methodology of the MDGNA Purpose: Identify a framework of specific interventions necessary to achieve the MDGs; Estimate the financial resources and policy actions needed to implement these interventions; Promote substantive discussion about resource needs for development. Methodology: Key interventions and investments identified for MDGs 1-7; Baseline Scenario: GDP Growth- 5% annually; Increase tax revenue-from 16% to 19% by 2015; Expenditures from the state budget on MDG related activities-31%. High (growth) Scenario: GDP Growth- 7% annually; Increase tax revenue-from 16% to 24% by 2015; Expenditures from the state budget on MDG related activities-50%. Projections: population and macroeconomic; Absorptive capacity and MDG interlinkages.

3. 3 Main Features of the MDG Needs Assessment Coverage targets: Most of the MDG interventions and investments intend to cover 80-100% of the poor; 50% coverage of specific target groups: mothers, children, poor farmers, etc. Interventions: Institutional reforms, capacity building, public awareness; Detailed costing of capital and recurrent expenses; Priorities: Short-term (quick wins); Medium-term; Contributions: Households; Private sector; Government and donors; Financing gap: Decreases steadily over time; Result: Not only improved social services, but also creation of a viable private sector.

4. 4 MDG 1: Poverty and Hunger Interventions: Targeted food supplements and fortificants; Fertilizers for all farmers; support of agriculture infrastructure; Access to land to all farmers; development of small and medium private farms; Support to cotton farmers and resolution of debt; Capacity-building: technical and business training; micro-credit to small farms; Public Awareness. Coverage targets (by 2015): 50% of mothers and children covered by supplements and food fortificants; Access to 90% of farmers to direct inputs; access to a land plot to all farms; Resolution of cotton debt in 100 pilot cotton farms; Provision of capacity-building to 80% of small farms; Micro-credit for up to US $4,000 to 58% of small farms; Rehabilitation of 70% of irrigation and drainage networks.

5. 5 MDG 1: Poverty and Hunger (cont.) Outcome: Creation of a viable private sector in rural Tajikistan; Development of health nutrition for mothers and children; Tripling of income of small farms; Stimulation of the economic development in the country. Financial Estimates (2005-2015): Total cost: US $6,250 million (US $74 per capita); Public contributions: US $134.3 million (basic scenario); US $617 million (high scenario); Private contributions: US $4,344.2 million Donor contributions: US $266.3 million Financing gap: Basic scenario: US $1,505 million, or 24% of all costs; High scenario: US $1,023 million or 16% of all costs.

6. 6 MDG 2: Universal basic education Interventions: Rehabilitation and building of school infrastructure; Provision of textbooks; Provision of school meals to children; Training and retraining of school teachers; Development of modern curricula; Increase of teachers salaries; Financing reforms (per-capita financing). Coverage targets (by 2015): 100% of schools provided with clean water, heating, electricity, etc. Access to schools for 99% of children; Textbooks for 100% of children; Free school-meals to 50% of children; Building of 850 schools in remote and overcrowded areas; Yearly re-qualification training to 20-25% of teachers; Raising teachers salaries by four times by 2015.

7. 7 MDG 2: Universal basic education (cont.) Outcome: 99% attendance of boys and girls in basic education (grades 1-9); Elimination of gender disparity in basic and secondary education. Financial Estimates (2005-2015): Total cost: US $1,766 million (US $20.26 per capita, US $84 per student); Public contributions: US $1,438 million (basic scenario); US $1,969 million (high scenario); Private contributions: US $140 million (basic scenario); US $159 million (high scenario); Donor contributions: US $264.6 million; Financing gap: Basic scenario: US $552.3 million (31% of needs) High scenario: no gap.

8. 8 MDG 3: Achieving Gender Equality Interventions: Public awareness programs on sexual and reproductive health (SRH); Income generation and skills training programs for out-of-school girls and women; Promotion of political participation of women; Measures to end violence against women; Promotion of gender sensitization at all levels of public service (police, schools and health centers) and communities. Coverage targets (by 2015): 80% of school children and 50% of women covered by SRH programs; 30% of adolescent girls and 5% of women covered by income generation and skills training activities; Provision of micro-credit to 1.5% of women; 100% of women candidates covered by political support programs; 50% of women suffering from domestic violence receive counseling; Gender sensitization programs reach 100% of public servants; All communities involved in mass media campaign zero tolerance against women

9. 9 MDG 3: Achieving Gender Equality (cont.) Outcome: Increased practice of family planning; Financial independence of women; Creation of zero tolerance attitude towards violence against women; Gender empowerment in the public service and communities. Financial estimates (2005-2015): Total cost: US $115.6 million (US $1.3 per capita) Public contributions: US $0 (basic scenario); US $72 million (high scenario); Private contributions: n/a Donor contributions: US $37 million Financing gap: Basic scenario US $78 million (68% of needs); High scenario US $6 million (5% of needs).

10. 10 MDGs 4,5 and 6: Lowering maternal and child mortality, and combating the spread of infectious diseases Interventions: Construction and rehabilitation of primary medical health (PHS) care facilities, and Sanitary Epidemiological Stations (SES); Provision of medical equipment and essential drugs to rural health care facilities; Training/retraining of physicians, obstetricians, midwifes and RH specialists; Provision of contraceptives to all PHC facilities; Increased salaries to health care specialists; Scaling up of DOTS and anti-malaria measures across the country; De-worming campaigns for all children under the age of 14; Effective anti-HIV/AIDS activities; Public awareness campaigns.

11. 11 MDGs 4,5 and 6: Lowering maternal and child mortality, and combating the spread of infectious diseases (cont.) Coverage targets (by 2015): Rehabilitation and rebuilding of 40% of rural health houses, 70% of rural health centers, 70% of polyclinics, 80% of urban and district hospitals and 80% of SES; Training provided to all obstetricians and midwifes in safe childbirth practices; Provision of contraceptives to all health houses and centers; Improvement of the TB and malaria detection and recovery rates to 50% and 70% respectively; Coverage of 100% of children under 14 with anti-worm medicines; Coverage of 80% of youth by HIV/AIDS campaigns; Coverage of 90% of HIV-positive women by ARV; 60% of young people covered by voluntary counseling and testing.

12. 12 MDGs 4,5 and 6: Lowering maternal and child mortality, and combating the spread of infectious diseases (cont.) Outcome (by 2015): Infant mortality: 29.6 per 1,000 (now 89 per 1,000); Under-five mortality: 39.3 per 1,000 (now 118 per 1,000); Maternal mortality: 30 per 100,000 (now 120 per 100,000); Increase detection and recovery rates of TB and malaria by 50%; Immunization of 100% of children; Provision of free childbirth and emergency obstetrics services across the country. Financial estimations (2005-2015): Total cost: US $3,587 million (US $42.22 per capita); Public contributions: US $260 million (basic) and US $1,232 million (high); Private contributions: US $908 million (basic) and US $1,037 million (high); Donor contributions: US $440 million Financing gap: Basic scenario: US $1,979 million (55% of needs); High scenario: US $878 million (24% of needs).

13. 13 MDG 7: Promoting Sustainable Environment Interventions: Mitigation of climate change; Prevention of land degradation; Management of protected areas; Sustainable forestry management; Disaster risk management; Waste management. Coverage targets (by 2015): Coverage of all communities and public service servants by public awareness programs on sustainable environment; 30% of all arable land covered by anti-erosion measures; 90% of infrastructure rehabilitated in protected areas; Disaster prevention mechanisms established in all disaster-prone areas; Reforestation of 13,000 hectares of land; Rehabilitation of 159 landfills.

14. 14 MDG 7: Promoting Sustainable Environment (cont.) Outcome: Introduction of sustainable natural resources management practices by 2015. Financial Estimations (2005-2015): Total cost: US $260 million (US $3.4 per capita); Public contributions: US $24 million (basic scenario); US $84 million (high scenario); Private contributions: n/a Donor contributions: US $44 million Financing Gap: US $192 million (74% of needs); US $133 million (51% of needs).

15. 15 MDG 7: Water and Sanitation Interventions: Construction and maintenance of water points for rural people; Rehabilitation and maintenance of safe water supply infrastructure in cities and towns; Improvement of water and sewage tariff collections and introduction of break-even tariffs; Development of community water management practices; Provision of improved sanitation facilities to rural population and rehabilitation of centralized sewage networks; Hygiene education in schools and communities; Integrate waste water treatment into rural wastewater tanks and urban sewage systems. Coverage targets (by 2015): Access to safe drinking water to 74% of the rural and 97% of the urban population; Access to improved sanitation to 45% of the rural and 65% of the urban population; Coverage of all communities by hygiene education campaigns; Wastewater treatment of 0.19% of the rural and 41% of the urban population.

16. 16 MDG 7: Water and Sanitation (cont.) Outcome: Access to drinking water for 83% of the population (now 59%); Access to improved sanitation for 58% of the population (now 15%). Financial estimations (2005-2015): Total cost: US $998.3 million (US $11.9 per capita); Public contributions: US $33 million (basic scenario); US $443 million (high scenario); Private contributions: US $286 million Donor contributions: US $85 million Financing gap: Basic scenario: US $595 million (60% of needs); High scenario: US $185 million (19% of needs).

17. 17 MDG-compatible energy services Interventions: Construction of Rogun and Sangtuda hydro-power plants; Rehabilitation of all functioning hydro-power plants; Reconstruction of Yavan thermal plant; Rehabilitation of all distribution lines and decrease of technical losses; Cost-recovery through increased collection of tariffs from households and industries. Main coverage targets (by 2015): Increase access of MDG-compatible energy services in winter times to households from 30% to 100%, to industry from 80% to 100%; to social services, including schools, rural health houses, rural health centers, and hospitals from 30% to 100%; to government organizations from 30% to 100%; Achieve cost-recovery by increasing tariff collections from households and industry from 70% in 2005 to 100% by 2015.

18. 18 MDG-compatible energy services (cont.) Outcome: provision of reliable and continuous high-quality energy services to all households, schools, medical facilities, agriculture and industry by 2015; Development of energy services is crucial in achieving health, education, water supply and sanitation, and gender MDG targets, as well as the overall MDG target of halving poverty and hunger by 2015. Financial estimations (2005-2015): Total cost: US $3,097 million (US $37.3 per capita); Public contributions: US $353.0 million; International contributions: US $387.6 million; Contributions from energy companies: US $2,106 million; Financing Gap: US $250.5 million (9% of total costs).

19. 19 Financial Estimations Basic growth scenario, per capita (US $)

20. 20 Financial Estimations High growth scenario, per capita (US $)