1. © Prof. Dr. Georg Erdmann 1 Electricity Systems with High Renewable Energy Shares Prof. Dr. Georg Erdmann TU Berlin; Chair Energy Systems Member of the Federal Commission „Energie der Zukunft“ Seminary “Science for Energy Scenarios” organized by the “Commissariat à l'Énergie Atomique et aux Énergies Alternatives » in Les Houche, 3 February 2014

2. © Prof. Dr. Georg Erdmann 2 Gross Power Generation in Germany [Source: AGEB] Gross electricity generation [TWh] RENOilHard coalLigniteGasNuclearOther

3. © Prof. Dr. Georg Erdmann 3 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 19901995200020052010 Biomass PV Wind Hydro Electricity generation [TWh] Renewable Electricity in Germany [Source AGEB]

4. © Prof. Dr. Georg Erdmann 4 German Electricity Bill for Final Users [Data source: Destatis 2012] 10 20 30 40 50 60 Total expenditures of industrial, commercial and residential customers [without VAT; Billion Euros] 1991 1995200020052010 39 40 41 42 41 39 34 38 37 41 43 47 51 55 59 61 63 65

5. © Prof. Dr. Georg Erdmann 5 Breakdown of the German Electricity Bill 201020112012 Changeshare [bn. €] 2011/2 Total electricity bill (without VAT)61.363.665.0 2.2%100.0% Government induced elements17.223.023.3 1.4%35.8% - Electricity tax 6.4 7.2 7.0 -3.2%10.7% - Concession fee 2.1 2.2 2.1 -5.8%3.2% - Additional REN costs 8.313.414.0 4.7%21.5% - CHP and other levies 0.4 0.2 0.3 29.2%0.4% Government regulated elements16.917.619.0 8.1%29.3% - Transmission fees 2.2 2.6 18.3%4.0% - Tistribution fees14.715.416.4 6.6%25.3% Market elements27.223.022.7 -1.4%34.9% - Market value of renewables 3.5 4.4 4.8 8.9%7.4% - Generation, distribution and sales23.718.617.9 -3.9%27.5%

6. © Prof. Dr. Georg Erdmann 6 Direct and indirect support of Renewables New installations January 2014 Onshore wind Offshore wind PVBiogas Bio- methan Net support (Feed-in./. Market value) 62162 92164187 Integration Gas grid 22 Avoided grid costs gas 19 Extension electricity distribution grid 26 15 4 Extension electricity transmission grid 8 8 1 1 Offshore grid 26 Offshore levy 3 Short term merit order effect-28-29-32-29 Backup capacity 27 22 27 Transmission losses 2 12 Total 97204104140199 - Thereoff for elektrizität 97204104120129 - Thereoff for heat / gas grid 20 70

7. © Prof. Dr. Georg Erdmann 7 German Energy Concept 2050 [September 2010] Political targetBase year2020203020402050 Greenhouse gas emissions1990  40%  55%  70%  80-95% Primary energy consumption2008  20%  50% Energy productivity  2.1% p.a. Power consumption2008  10%  25% CHP electricity share 25% Heat demand of building stock2008  10% Primary energy in building stock  80% Modernization rate of buildings  2% p.a. Final energy in transportation2005  20%  40% Number of electric vehicles1 Mio6 Mio REN share in energy consumption 18%30%45%60% REN electricity share35%50%65%80% “Price” for more nuclear

8. © Prof. Dr. Georg Erdmann 8 Assumed Renewable Electricity until 2050 20112015202020302050 Secured load Renewable share of power generation 12.0%17.8%35.0%50.0%80.0% - Biogas21.0%19.0%18.0%22.0%13.8%100% - Onshore wind35.0%34.0%33.0%30.0%18.8% 3% - Offshore wind 1.0% 4.0% 8.0%14.0%46.0% 9% - Photovoltaik15.0%20.0%22.0%19.0%11.9% 0% - Other renewables28.0%22.0%19.0%15.0% 9.4% 70% Renewable share without biogas 9.5%14.2%28.7%39.0%68.8% Secured load 2.0% 2.4% 4.3% 4.9% 6.8%

9. © Prof. Dr. Georg Erdmann 9 Volatility of Wind Power [Source: Ehlers 2011, S. 100] 0 4'000 8'000 12'000 16'000 20'000 Wind power generation [MW] Gradient 8'000 MW/h 1.1.201031.1.2010 Amprion EnBW 50Hertz Transmission Transpower Virtually no capacity contribution

10. © Prof. Dr. Georg Erdmann 10 Power Supply Scenario for 2030 with 50 Percent REN Electricity -40 -20 0 20 40 60 80 10002000300040005000600070008000 Load [GW] Ordered load duration Ordered residual load without biogas / bio-methane 100

11. © Prof. Dr. Georg Erdmann 11 Remaining Non-renewable Power Plants Generation capacity [GW] Years in operation 201120152020203020402050 Nuclear [GW]12104000 Lignite [GW]5519222015119 Hard coal [GW]502425201430 Gas [GW]4026221714103 Others [GW]4014 121085 Total [GW]959373533217 Total adjusted15%817962452714

12. © Prof. Dr. Georg Erdmann 12 “Baseload” power Power Supply Scenario for 2030 with 50 Percent REN Electricity -40 -20 0 20 40 60 80 10002000300040005000600070008000 Load [GW] Ordered load duration Ordered residual load without biogas / bio-methane Conventional power plants 100 Expected annual operation of new plants

13. © Prof. Dr. Georg Erdmann 13 Ordered Day-ahead Prices in 2012 -30 -10 10 30 50 70 90 110 130 144028804320576072008640 Day-ahead price 2012: Ø = 42.60 €/MWh Without wind: Ø = 48.06 €/MWh without wind + PV: Ø = 51.13 €/MWh Δ = 8.53 €/MWh Day-ahead price [EUR/MWh] Hours

14. © Prof. Dr. Georg Erdmann 14 Ordered Prices in 2012 compared to prices Necessary for Financing new GT Day-ahead price [EUR/MWh] Hours -30 30 90 150 210 42,60 €/MWh 51.13 €/MWh at 500 h/a 52.50 €/MWh at 1000 h/a 54.07 €/MWh at 1500 h/a 55.80 €/MWh at 2000 h/a 10002000300040005000600070008000

15. © Prof. Dr. Georg Erdmann 15 Backup Power Plant Operation in 2030 Residual load [GW] Hour -10 0 10 20 30 40 50 -20 No operation Consecutive Operation 10203040506070 Plant position in the merit order

16. © Prof. Dr. Georg Erdmann 16 Consecutive Operation in 2030 [at 25 GW]

17. © Prof. Dr. Georg Erdmann 17 Consecutive Standstill in 2030 [at 45 GW]

18. © Prof. Dr. Georg Erdmann 18 Tack så mycket Tel: +49 (030) 314 246 56 Fax: +49 (030) 314 269 08 georg.erdmann@tu-berlin.de georg.erdmann@prognoseforum.de

19. © Prof. Dr. Georg Erdmann 19 Markets Business strategies Social welfare Prices Energy security Competition Investments Innovations CCS Regulation power Power-to-gas Energy laws Wind and PV Bio fuels Hydrogen and fuel cells CO 2 allowances Research Profile of „Energy Systems“ Industrial Economics Evolutionary Economics Public Choice … (Stochastic) Systems Analysis, Econometrics …