1. REFERENCES CITED Jackson, Chester W., Jr, Alexander, C.R., Bush, D.M., 2012, Application of the AMBUR R Package for Spatio-Temporal Analysis of Shoreline Change: Jekyll Island, Georgia, U.S.A.: Computers & Geosciences, vo. 41, April 2012, p. 199–207. NOAA, 2000. Environmental Sensitivity Index Map, ESIMAP PR-28, downloaded from NOAA Office of Response and Restoration web site, http://response.restoration.noaa.gov/maps-and-spatial-data/download-esi- maps-and-gis-data.html#PuertoRico.. Puerto Rico Climate Change Council (PRCCC), 2013, State of Puerto Rico’s Climate 2010-2013 Executive Summary: Assessing Puerto Rico’s Social- Ecological Vulnerabilities in a Changing Climate, (electronic version): San Juan, PR, Puerto Rico Coastal Zone Management Program, Department of Natural and Environmental Resources, Office of Ocean and Coastal Resource Management (NOAA-OCRM), p. 27. Thieler, E.R.; Rodriguez, R.W., and Carlo, M., 1995. Beach erosion and coastal development at Rincón, Puerto Rico. Shore and Beach, 63(4), 18–28. ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS The authors are indebted to the University of Puerto Rico Sea Grant College Program which provided the majority of the funding for this project. The UWG Student Research Assistant Program provided funds for student salary and travel, and a UWG Faculty Research Grant for providing travel support for DMB. The Geology Department at GVSU provided professional development funds for PLR and the funds to cover student travel. The Michigan Space Grant Consortium supported Kyle Siemer during his island inventory work. We also would like to thank the following individuals: Lt. Tyler Stutin and MST1 Jeffrey Merrell with the U.S. Coast Guard who provided field assistance and access to Isla Cardona and the lighthouse for LiDAR imaging and shoreline mapping; Gaspar Pons (Oficial de Manejo, RVS Embalse Cerrillos Area Recreativa Atracadero) for providing field assistance while on Isla Cardona; Adam Bode with NOAA Coastal Services Center for providing historical maps (t-sheets); Capt. Finzi with Adventures Tourmarine for providing boat access to Cayo Ratones in Joyuda, PR; PR DNER for providing boat access to Isla Cardona; Iván C. Llerandi Román and Miguel Garcia for assisting with coordinating boating and access to cays; and Lesbia Montero, UPR-Humacao Sea Grant Program, for her assistance in organizing the geoscience education workshop and with logistics. Finally, two West Georgia students are owed special mention: both Ryann Runyan and Beth Perison-Parrish worked on various parts of the overall “small-islands” study for several years. They have both now gone on to graduate school and bigger and likely better things. 1 Islands pictured below (From NOAA, 2000) Figure 1 RESULTS Projected shoreline positions Projected shoreline positions are based on historical shoreline change Historical shoreline change was determined using the end point rate methodology There are approximately 50 years between the earliest and most recent historical shorelines used Shoreline Type Though not yet incorporated into the study, there should be a correlation between shoreline type and shoreline behavior A variety of shoreline types exist on the study area islands Shoreline types were obtained from NOAA’s Environmental Sensitivity Index (ESI) Shoreline Habitat database (Figure 1) -ESI mapped sensitivity to oiling (NOAA, 2000) -Source: NOAA’s Office of Response and Restoration (response.restoration.noaa.gov) Shoreline habitat maps are presented here for qualitative comparison to projected shoreline change Planned future work Incorporate additional historical shorelines into the model and to base future work on the average of rates method, which was found to work well in Rincón, Puerto Rico, by Thieler et al. (1995) Analysis of the correlation between specific shoreline types and historical shoreline change/projected shoreline position 1 2A 5 3A 1A 5 3A 6A 1A 5 3A 1A 6A 3A 5 6B 3A 5 6A 1A 6A ESI Shoreline types (see Figure 1) Culebrita: -Highly variable shoreline -Mostly rock or unconsolidated sediment -All shoreline types are relatively stable 1A ESI Shoreline types (see Figure 1) Isla de Palomas: -Entirely eolianite -Relatively stable, though perhaps not as much as one would think -High energy, northern coast location is a likely explanation 6A 4 ESI Shoreline types (see Figure 1) Cardona: -Entirely unconsolidated -Projection shows island cutting in two 3A 1A 4 4 3A 4 5 5 4 5 ESI Shoreline types (see Figure 1) Isla Palominos: -Rock and sediment in about equal proportion -Western side more sheltered, and mostly stable 10D 9B ESI Shoreline types (see Figure 1) Cayo Rio: -All stable mangrove and tidal flat 5 4 10D ESI Shoreline types (see Figure 1) Cayos de Ratones: -Mostly mangrove with some coarse-grained beaches on eastern side -Interior essentially all mangrove -Mangroves dominate on Caribbean Sea coast of Puerto Rico -Mangroves stable through study time period