1. Challenges of the Transition to Adulthood in East Asia Suni Lee Department of Sociology Ajou University This presentation material was created on the basis of the following article: Suni Lee, “The rise of age at first marriage and the rate of never-marrieds,” Pp. 49-56 in Korean Social Trends 2008.

2. Contents I. Theoretical Perspective: Transition to Adulthood II. An Analysis of the Marriage Trend in Korea III. Implications for East Asian Countries

3. I. Theoretical Perspective: The Transition to Adulthood “The transition to adulthood”: A perspective for the human resource development of the younger generation. Contextual background: Population aging and global socioeconomic changes - Expansion of secondary & higher education - Decline in the availability of fulltime jobs - Increase in labor force participation of women - Delays in marriage - Decline in fertility

4. The Challenges of the Transition to Adulthood Major markers of adulthood - Employment & the achievement of financial independence - Leaving home - Marriage & reproduction Destandardization of the life course & the emergence of “adultolescence” - Prolonged period of youth - Choice biography (Giddens 1991; Beck & Beck-Gernsheim 1995)

5. II. An Analysis of the Marriage Trend in Korea Background demographic trend: Rapid aging Marriage trend in Korea (1) Age at first marriage (2) Remaining single Characteristics of the never-marrieds in 20s & 30s

6. Background Demographic Trend: Rapid Aging Population growth rate < 1% since 1985. Minus growth rate expected in 2020. Low fertility: Total fertility rate 1.20 in 2008. Fastest aging society 2000 2008 2018 Rate of pop 65+ : 7.2 10.3 14.3 (%)

7. Fertility Trend in Korea Fertility Trend in Korea Year Number of Births Crude Fertility Rate Total Fertility Rate Sex Ratio 19701,006,64531.24.53109.5 1975 874,86924.83.47112.4 1980 865,35022.72.83105.3 1985 662,51016.21.67109.4 1990 658,55215.41.59116.5 1995 721,07416.01.65113.2 2000 636,78013.41.47110.2 2005 438,062 9.01.08107.7 2006 451,514 9.21.13107.4 2007 496,71010.11.26106.1

8. Total Fertility Rate in East Asian Countries: 1960-2004 China Macao HK Japan Korea Singapore Thailand Source: ESCAP, 『 Population Data Sheet 』, 2004

9. Source: Korea National Statistical Office, www.kosis.kr TFR and the Ideal No. of Children: 1976-2006 TFR Ideal # Children

10. Marriage Trend in Korea (1): Age at First Marriage Delay of marriage Average age at first marriage Women Men 2007 28.1 (+ 5.3) 31.1 (+ 4.3) 1975 22.8 26.8 - Rapid increase since 1995. - In 2000-2005, increase of 0.3 yr. annually. Age at first marriage (2007) - 50%+ of men marry after 30. (20% in 1990) - 15% of men marry after 35. - 15% of women marry before 25. (50%+ in 1990) - 25% of women marry after 30; 5% after 35. Women Men 25-29 28.1 (+ 5.3) 31.1 (+ 4.3) 1975 22.8 26.8

11. Average Age at First Marriage in Korea: 1925-2005 Source: Korea National Statistical Office, 『 Population and Housing Census 』

12. Average Age at First Marriage: Cross National Comparison CountriesWomenMen Korea (2000)2730 Japan (2000)2931 Singapore (2001)2730 France (2000)3032 Sweden (2001)3235 U. S. A. (2000)2629 Australia (2000)2931 Source: UN Statistics Division. 『 Indicators on Women and Men 』, 2008

13. Age at First Marriage for Men and Women: 1990-2007 Men Women

14. Marriage Trend in Korea (2): Remaining Single Decline of crude marriage rate 2007 7 (per 1,000 people) 2003 6.3 1990 9.3 Decreasing value of marriage 27.5% think “ Marriage is not necessarily preferable.” - 36% of 30s - 34% of women & 21% of men Increasing rate of never-marrieds among 20s & 30s. In 2005, people who remain never married… (cf. in 1990) Women Men until late 20s 59% (22%) 82% (57%) until early 30s 19% ( 5%) 41% (14%) until late 30s 8% ( 2%) 18% ( 4%)

15. Crude Marriage Rate in Korea: 1990-2007 Source: Korea National Statistical Office, 『 Population and Housing Census 』

16. Opinions on Marriage: 1998, 2006 Must Preferable Not necessary

17. The Rate of Never-marrieds among 20s & 30s: 1990-2005 Men Women

18. The Probability of Remaining Single by Age Cohorts: The Rate of Never-marrieds % Cohorts When they reach.... 20-2425-2930-3435-39 Men Born in Early 1960s93.150.813.96.7 Born in Late 1960s94.457.319.410.6 Born in Early 1970s96.464.428.118.4 Born in Late 1970s96.371.041.3- Born in Early 1980s97.481.8-- Women Born in Early 1960s66.118.45.33.3 Born in Late 1960s72.122.16.74.3 Born in Early 1970s80.529.610.77.6 Born in Late 1970s83.341.119.0- Born in Early 1980s89.159.1-- Source: Korea National Statistical Office, 『 Population and Housing Census 』

19. Characteristics of the Never-marrieds in 20s & 30s Education: Does education cause a delay of marriage? The relationship between employment and marriage The residential pattern of the never-marrieds: Independence or co-residence with parents?

20. Characteristics of the Never-marrieds in 20s & 30s (1) Education: Does education cause a delay of marriage? In 2005, people who remain never married… Women Men HS Col. HS Col. until late 20s 44% 68% 74% 84% until early 30s 14% 23% 42% 39% until late 30s 6% 9% 22% 9% Gender difference: - For women, college education delays marriage & decreases the probability of marriage. - Form men, college education delays marriage only in the 20s & increases the probability of marriage.

21. Characteristics of the Never-marrieds in 20s & 30s (2) Employment and marriage In 2005, people who remain never married… Women Men Empl. Un-empl. Empl. Un-empl. until late 20s 74% 40% 75% 96% until early 30s 31% 10% 36% 77% until late 30s 20% 13% 23% 75% Gender difference: - For men, employment increases the probability of marriage. - For women, employment and the probability of marriage is negatively correlated. Also the causal direction is reversed.

22. Characteristics of the Never-marrieds in 20s & 30s (3) The residential pattern of the never-marrieds: Independence or co-residence with parents? - Co-residence with parents decreases after 30. - Creating independent household has been increasing. - Nevertheless, more single adults live with their parents than otherwise. - Increasing dependence of young adults on parents. Between 1995 and 2005… women There was a greater increase in single women living with their parents than single women creating an independent household. men There was almost as much increase in single men living with their parents as single men creating an independent household.

23. Residential Pattern of the Never-marrieds Frequency in 100,000 20-2425-2930-3435-39 Men 1995Coresidence with parents118.383.523.3 7.1 1 person household 9.319.310.1 4.1 2000Coresidence with parents106.797.834.111.4 1 person household 8.619.413.7 7.2 2005Coresidence with parents 99.895.348.118.9 1 person household 11.823.821.812.6 Women 1995Coresidence with parents126.641.0 6.62.3 1 person household10.0 7.5 4.02.6 2000Coresidence with parents121.556.411.73.3 1 person household10.810.7 5.83.6 2005Coresidence with parents116.370.521.46.6 1 person household14.915.910.25.9 Source: Korea National Statistical Office, 『 Population and Housing Census 』

24. Marriage Trend in Korea: A Summary Rapid rise in age at first marriage started around 2000. Rise of “permanent singles,” particularly among men. Non-college education and un-employment as inhibiting factors for the transition of marital status among men. Women are still more dependent upon marriage, because of gender discrimination in the labor market. Increasing number of young adults in 30s are creating independent household; yet the majority are staying with their parents.

25. III. Implications For human resource development Growing need to strengthen education and work (Settersten, 2005) - Meet market demands for better credentials. - Expand opportunities for higher education. - Meet the demands for students working during their studies. - Meet the demands for returning dropouts. For the family - Increasing burdens of “midlife squeeze”: Middle-aged adults having to care for both aging parents and young adult children. (Brannen & Moss, 1998) - Growing need to provide material assistance to young people from disadvantaged family backgrounds. (Schoeni & Ross, 2005) For gender relations

26. References Beck, U. and E. Beck-Gernsheim. 1995. The Normal Chaos of Love. Cambridge: Polity Press. Brannen, J. and P. Moss. 1998. “The polarization and intensification of parental employment in Britain: Consequences for Children, families and the community.” Community, Work and Family 1(3): 229-47. Giddens, A. 1991. Modernity and Self-Identity: Self and Society in the Late Modern Age. Cambridge: Polity Press. Lee, S. 2008. “The rise of age at first marriage and the rate of never-marrieds.” Pp. 49-56 in Korean Social Trends 2008. Statistics Research Institute, Korea. (In Korean) Schoeni, R. F. and K. E. Ross. 2005. “Material assistance from families during the transition to adulthood.” Pp. 396-416 in R. A. Settersten Jr., F. F. Furstenberg Fr., and R. G. Rumbaut (eds.), On the Frontier of Adulthood: Theory, Research, and Public Policy. The University of Chicago Press. Settersten, R. A. Jr. 2005. “Social policy and the transition to adulthood: Toward stronger institutions and individual capacities.” Pp. 534-560 in R. A. Settersten Jr., F. F. Furstenberg Fr., and R. G. Rumbaut (eds.), On the Frontier of Adulthood: Theory, Research, and Public Policy. The University of Chicago Press.

27. Thank you.