1. Creating a nutritious home for all

2. THE FOOD CRISES: BACKGROUND & THE WAY FORWARD Dirk Troskie Specialist: Agricultural Economics Western Cape Dept. of Agriculture

8. % OF HOUSEHOLDS THAT REPORTS CHILDREN GOING HUNGRY DURING THE PAST YEAR

9. THE FOOD CRISIS: THE SITUATION 1. Fewer experience hunger than anytime in SA history.

10. AGRICULTURAL GDP PER PERSON IN AGRICULTURE (2004)

11. TRANSFERS / CAPITA (Constant 2000 Rand) Departement Landbou | Department of Agriculture | Isebe Lezolimo Source: vd Berg (2007)

12. THE FOOD CRISIS: THE SITUATION 1. Fewer experience hunger than anytime in SA history. 2. Government interventions play a major role in this regard.

13. FOOD PRODUCTION & POPULATION GROWTH Departement Landbou | Department of Agriculture | Isebe Lezolimo Source: Abstract (2008)

14. GROWTH OF AGRICULTURAL PRODUCTION PER CAPITA (1994 – 2004)

15. THE FOOD CRISIS: THE SITUATION 1. Fewer experience hunger than anytime in SA history. 2. Government interventions play a major role in this regard. 3. Food production keep track with population growth.

16. AGRICULTURAL IMPORTS & EXPORTS (Nominal values) Departement Landbou | Department of Agriculture | Isebe Lezolimo Source: Abstract (2008)

17. EXPORTS OF WINE Departement Landbou | Department of Agriculture | Isebe Lezolimo Source: SAWIS (2008)

18. WESTERN CAPE EXPORTS 2001 - 2003 Departement Landbou | Department of Agriculture | Isebe LezolimoPRODUCTVALUE% of TOTAL CUMUL -ATIVE % % CHANGE FruitR5,18619,4% 75% Wine, beer & spiritsR3,33312,5%31,9%58% FishR2,3118,7%40,6%28,5% Processed foodR1,6846,3%46,9%-2,4% Wood & productsR0,4291,6%48,5%75% Hides, skins, leatherR0,3711,4%49,9%-15,7 MeatR0,2270,9%50,8%-12,5% R13,54150,8% Source: Quantec (2008)

19. CONCENTRATION RATIO OF AGRICULTURAL EXPORTS (2002 – 2004)

20. THE FOOD CRISIS: THE SITUATION 1. Fewer experience hunger than anytime in SA history. 2. Government interventions play a major role in this regard. 3. Food production keep track with population growth. 4. SA shows growth in the net value of exports

21. NET TRADE IN FOOD (2002 – 2004)

22. SHARE OF FOOD IN TOTAL IMPORTS (2002 – 2004)

23. SHARE OF AGRICULTURAL EXPORTS IN TOTAL EXPORTS (2002 – 2004)

24. THE FOOD CRISIS: THE SITUATION 1. Fewer experience hunger than anytime in SA history. 2. Government interventions play a major role in this regard. 3. Food production keep track with population growth. 4. SA shows growth in the net value of exports 5. Yet, SA is a deficit exporter of calories

25. FAPRI % BFAP BASELINE PRICES: Wheat & Barley Departement Landbou | Department of Agriculture | Isebe Lezolimo Source: BFAP (2007)

26. BIOFUELS IN THE US Departement Landbou | Department of Agriculture | Isebe Lezolimo Source: OECD/FAO Outlook (2007)

27. ANIMAL PRODUCTS Index of nominal prices Departement Landbou | Department of Agriculture | Isebe Lezolimo Source: OECD/FAO Outlook (2007)

28. PER CAPITA CONSUMPTION OF MEAT Departement Landbou | Department of Agriculture | Isebe Lezolimo Source: OECD/FAO Outlook (2007)

29. WORLD CLOSING STOCKS Departement Landbou | Department of Agriculture | Isebe Lezolimo Source: OECD/FAO Outlook (2007)

30. WORLD POPULATION Departement Landbou | Department of Agriculture | Isebe Lezolimo

31. POPULATION ON CONTINENTS Departement Landbou | Department of Agriculture | Isebe Lezolimo

32. THE FOOD CRISIS: THE SITUATION 1. Fewer experience hunger than anytime in SA history. 2. Government interventions play a major role in this regard. 3. Food production keep track with population growth. 4. SA shows growth in the net value of exports 5. Yet, SA is a deficit exporter of calories 6. We are experiencing a trend-break

33. IMPACT ON THE MOST VULNERABLE: LSM1 (Inflation = 6%; Food Inflation = 12%) Departement Landbou | Department of Agriculture | Isebe Lezolimo Source: Own Calculations based on LSM Data (2007)

34. % HH EXPENDITURE ON FOOD Departement Landbou | Department of Agriculture | Isebe Lezolimo Source: Troskie (2001)

35. RURAL POPULATION IN TOTAL POPULATION (2004)

36. THE FOOD CRISIS: THE SITUATION 1. Fewer experience hunger than anytime in SA history. 2. Government interventions play a major role in this regard. 3. Food production keep track with population growth. 4. SA shows growth in the net value of exports 5. Yet, SA is a deficit exporter of calories 6. We are experiencing a trend-break 7. We need to protect the most vulnerable 8. Certain countries are preventing exports: a)Impact on WTO negotiations b)Export instability

37. THE WAY FORWARD

38. Feed the hungry Food aid Food for Tomorrow Income generation programmes Address research & knowledge gaps Scale down trade distorting subsidies Special focus on Africa UN DECLARATION Departement Landbou | Department of Agriculture | Isebe Lezolimo

39. Feed the hungry Food gardens Food stamps Consumer subsidies (BIG) Emergency feeding schemes Food from research farms Food for Tomorrow ResearchExtensionTraining PROPOSED WESTERN CAPE DEPT. OF AGRICULTURE RESPONSE Departement Landbou | Department of Agriculture | Isebe Lezolimo

40. COMMERCIAL VEGETABLE PRODUCTION Departement Landbou | Department of Agriculture | Isebe Lezolimo Source: Combud & own calculations (2008)

41. SCENARIO 1 Departement Landbou | Department of Agriculture | Isebe LezolimoPRODUCTYIELD (T/ha) COST (R/ha) 3 Harvest / 1 Ha117R 173 107 2 Ha234R 346 214 2 Ha on 2 farms468R 692 428 Source: Own calculations (2008) Cost of buying 468 tons of veg. at Epping: R 905 465

42. SCENARIO 2 Departement Landbou | Department of Agriculture | Isebe LezolimoPRODUCTYIELD (T/ha) COST (R/ha) 2 Harvest / 1 Ha78R115 405 4 Ha312R 461 619 4 Ha on 2 farms624R 923 238 Source: Own calculations (2008) Cost of buying 624 tons of veg. at Epping: R 1 207 287

43. THE NATURE OF TECHNOLOGY Departement Landbou | Department of Agriculture | Isebe Lezolimo Preferred characteristic Time/Research input

44. RATE OF RETURN ON WHEAT RESEARCH Departement Landbou | Department of Agriculture | Isebe Lezolimo Source: Troskie (2001) ReferenceYearCountryPeriodRate of Return (%) Ardito-Barletta1971Mexico1943-6390 Eddleman1977USA1978-8546 Hertford et al1977Colombia1927-7611-12 Kislev and Hoffman1978Israel1954-73125-150 Pray1980Bangladesh1961-7730-35 Sundquist et al1981USA197797 Yrarrazaval et al1982Chile1949-7721-28 Zentner1982Canada1946-7930-39 Nagy1983Pakistan1967-8158 Ambrosi and Cruz1984Brazil1974-9059-74 Furtan and Ulrich1985Canada1950-8329 Norton et al1987Peru1981-200018-36 Evenson and da Cruz1989Brazil1979-88110 Byerlee1990Pakistan1978-8716-27

45. RESEARCH: IMPACT ON EMPLOYMENT Departement Landbou | Department of Agriculture | Isebe Lezolimo DOMESTIC PRODUCTIVITY INCREASE INTERNATIONAL PRODUCTIVITY INCREASE AfricanColrd/ Asian AfricanColrd/ Asian Factor Demand (Agriculture) -1.36-0.68-1.07-1.42 Factor Demand (Food) -0.34-0.18-0.510.60 Factor Demand (Other) 0.450.300.070.10 Total0.280.19-0.04-0.08 Source: Provide (2005)

46. PRICE ELASTICITY Departement Landbou | Department of Agriculture | Isebe LezolimoPRODUCTDEVELOPINGDEVELOPED Demand (Short)-0,4-0,3 Demand (Long)-1,0 Supply (Short)0,1 – 0,20,1 Supply (Long)0,4 – 1,20,8 – 1,0 Source: Bonnen & Schweikhardt (1998)

47. the end

48. THE FOOD CRISIS: THE SITUATION 1. Fewer experience hunger than anytime in SA history. 2. Government interventions play a major role in this regard. 3. Food production keep track with population growth. 4. SA shows growth in the net value of exports 5. Yet, SA is a deficit exporter of calories 6. We are experiencing a trend-break 7. We need to protect the most vulnerable 8. Certain countries are preventing exports: a)Impact on WTO negotiations b)Export instability