1. Disaster vs. Systems Engineering INCOSE Monthly Meeting 13 September 2006 Presented by: Bob Pierson

2. UNCLASSIFIED 2 Disaster vs. Systems Engineering A Discussion –Based Partially on the special section of INCOSE Insight oJuly 2006, Vol. 8 Issue 3 oSponsored by the INCOSE Anti- Terrorism International Working Group (ATIWG) –Major natural disasters and terrorist activities: oWhat can the discipline of systems engineering contribute to mitigate the damages caused by such disasters and possibly even to prevent them? – William F. Mackey

3. UNCLASSIFIED 3 Disaster vs. Systems Engineering History and Evolution of the ATIWG »Based on William Mackey, A History of INCOSEs Activities in Public Interest Issues –2001 (early): INCOSE Revitalization Project established to: oHarness talents of foremost experts across SE oAddress public interest challenges An unsolved problem that has negative effects on people of various cultures and geographical locations and that is amenable to the application of systems engineering –Sept 2001: Anti-Terrorism International Working Group chartered –2002: First Panel at Las Vegas Symposium: The Role of Systems Engineering in Combating Terorism –2003: 2 nd Panel at Arlington Symposium: The Role of Systems Engineering in Combating FUTURE Acts of Terrorism plus models, simulation & analysis –2004: 3 rd Panel at Toulouse Symposium: Recent Systems Development And Legal Efforts to Secure National Borders in the U.S., Europe, Israel, and Iraq plus papers, tutorial at Mid-Atlantic Conference –2005: 4 th Panel at Rochester Symposium: Will the International Communitys Counter-Terrorism Strategy Reduce or Eradicate Terrorism? plus Root Cause Analysis –2006: 5 th Panel at Orlando Symposium: Are Natural Dissaters Similar or Dissimilar to Terrorist Attacks? Broadening Definition of the Issue?

4. UNCLASSIFIED 4 Disaster vs. Systems Engineering Recent Terrorist Events »William Mackey, A Recent History of Terrorism and Natural Disasters Recent events… demonstrate that terrorist groups have the ability to perform systematic analyses and use sophisticated systems – built by industrialized countries – against random innocent people at virtually any location on the globe. – William Mackey, A History of INCOSEs Activities in Public Interest Issues Still a Small Threat Compared to Daily Hazards? - U.S. gun deaths are about twice this every year - U.S. accidental deaths are about twice this every month - U.S. cancer deaths equal this about every two days But Fear/Effect Ratio is Very High! ? I apologize here. These are very emotional topics and many of us knew or lost acquaintances. By adopting a somewhat flippant tone, I may offend. But my intention is not to diminish the horror or the loss, but to add some perspective. Better SE Through Terror? think of border drug tunnels, an outstanding SE success?

5. UNCLASSIFIED 5 Disaster vs. Systems Engineering Selected Natural Disasters »William Mackey, A Recent History of Terrorism and Natural Disasters Natural Disasters? >10 M deaths >1 M deaths >100K deaths >10K deaths >1K deaths

6. UNCLASSIFIED 6 Disaster vs. Systems Engineering How Are Terrorism & Natural Disaster Similar / Dissimilar? »Joe Carl, Anti-Terrorism International Working Group Panel 2006 – Position Paper: How Are Natural Disasters Similar or Dissimilar to Terrorist Attacks? – A Debate on the Issues ?? ? ? ??? ? ?

7. UNCLASSIFIED 7 Disaster vs. Systems Engineering Behavioral Response Model(s) »From Joseph Carl, Natural Calamities and Terrorism Events Have Similar Consequences, –Generalized From William Mackeys Terrorism-Specific Model –Different Causes (mother nature, human intention) –Common Consequences –Three Responses CARLs RESPONSE MODELMACKEYs RESPONSE MODEL Nice model. But, how to allocate limited resources among the three responses? And from which other problem do we take the resources?

8. UNCLASSIFIED 8 Disaster vs. Systems Engineering A Discussion –Major natural disasters and terrorist activities: oWhat can the discipline of systems engineering contribute to mitigate the damages caused by such disasters and possibly even to prevent them? – William F. Mackey, theme editor oWe believe that our objective, disciplined approach to problem analysis limits the emotional response to such difficult challenges and offers insights that inform government decision makers. – William F. Mackey decision maker insights fears SE Not sure Im as optimistic… provides everybody else insights fears

9. UNCLASSIFIED 9 Disaster vs. Systems Engineering The Speakers Personal Perspectives (Gloom & Doom 101?) –Two Key Factors oThe Limits of Risk Management Risk Is Limitless; Resources Are Note oUnintended Consequence Our Successful Systems Make Us Vulnerable –Lets Start From a Geophysical Perspective… –Before Getting to Humans… And Godzilla

10. UNCLASSIFIED 10 Disaster vs. Systems Engineering The Limits of Risk Management –Magnitude vs. Likelihood Problem in Natural Disasters EARTHQUAKES: Motion x10; Release Energy x32; per 1.0 magnitude We think we can localize. Can we really? 60% of Memphis leveled? 1/frequency (years) 10 6 10 5 10 4 10 3 10 2 10 1 10 0 2 3 7 6 5 4 8 Great Major Strong Moderate Light Earthquake Magnitude

11. UNCLASSIFIED 11 Disaster vs. Systems Engineering The Limits of Risk Management –Magnitude vs. Likelihood Problem in Natural Disasters (concluded) BOLIDES (METEORS): Similar log-log scaling with extreme events known in the geologic record No hope of localizing within a latitude band 1/frequency (years) 10 0 10 2 10 4 10 6 10 8 K-T Impact Meteor Crater, AZ Annual Event ~ 20 kilotons Megatons TNT Equivalent 10 -2 10 0 10 2 10 4 10 6 global catastrophe THE PROBLEM IS: likelihood(event)*likelihood(you dying) goes up with scale of event So, rationally, we would invest our resources addressing the most unlikely event? Unlikely! 10 8

12. UNCLASSIFIED 12 Disaster vs. Systems Engineering The Limits of Risk Management –Magnitude vs. Likelihood Problem in Human-Induced Disasters oDo Human-Caused Disasters Have a Similar Risk-Likelihood Curve? oAnd, Even Worse, Is The Curve Not Static? HUMAN-CAUSED DISASTERS: Seem to populate a similar likelihood vs consequence curve BUT, unlike natural causes: Seem to be accelerating And increasing in severity There is an underlying exponential growth curve that affects our ability & willingness to do intentional harm and our likelihood of creating unintentional consequences. 1/frequency (years) 10 0 10 -2 10 -4 10 -6 10 -8 10 -2 Magnitude of Human Disaster 10 0 10 2 10 4 10 6 10 8 1900 2000 2100 ? collapse of civilization invention of reality TV bad hair day evil empire death star Again, I apologize here. Famine and genocide are not equivalent to bad TV. The humor, again, is to keep some perspective. THE 2 nd PROBLEM (HUMAN-INDUCED) IS: likelihood(event)*likelihood(you dying) accelerates with time So, rationally, we would focus our resources averting the very worst imaginable human catastrophes and learn to accept increased day to day insecurity in return? Good luck!

13. UNCLASSIFIED 13 Disaster vs. Systems Engineering Unintended Consequences –Our Successful Systems Make Us Vulnerable oOr…terrorists need cell phones… opower grids, water supplies, global trade… CHUANG-TZU: Was asked how it could be that an evil despot had wrecked a formerly well-run and respected Chinese state by taking it over and engaging in a campaign of war and terror. Chuang Tzus reply: because it was well run. In trying to keep our treasure, we bind it up with heavy locks and chains. But if a big enough thief sees the opportunity, theyll pick up the whole thing and their only worry is that the locks and chains might give as they cart it all away! Recent events… demonstrate that terrorist groups have the ability to perform systematic analyses and use sophisticated systems – built by industrialized countries – against random innocent people at virtually any location on the globe. – William Mackey, A History of INCOSEs Activities in Public Interest Issues THE GODZILLA FACTOR: Unintended consequence & fear establish a human negative feedback (now heavily exploited by terrorists): In the original Gojira (Godzilla) movie, badly deployed systems engineering creates/unleashes the monster unintentionally through nuclear testing and the hero scientist (systems engineer) is forced to make the impossible decision whether to unleash a yet more deadly technology (with yet worse unintended consequences?) in order to destroy the monster…

14. UNCLASSIFIED 14 Disaster vs. Systems Engineering SE To succeed, we must address the human condition: (1)limitless risk vs. limited resources (2)unintended consequences vs precaution (3) human fear as a root cause Is this an SE task?