1. TOBACCO & NCD Raúl Mejía CEDES University of Buenos Aires Argentina

2. Tobacco caused deaths 2000-2030 Base-line scenario –2005 – 5.4 million –2015 – 6.5 million –2030 – 8.3 million Optimistic scenario –2030 – 7.4 million Pessimistic scenario –2030 – 9.4 million Change by income 2002- 2030 –High – 9% decline –Medium/low – 2x 3.4 – 6.8 million Mathers and Loncar. PLoS Medicine. 2006

3. CARDIOVASCULAR RISKS OF SMOKING 100% Increase in Risk 300% Increase in Risk Stroke; CHD; Impotence Death from undiagnosed CHD > 300 % Increase in Risk Peripheral Arterial Disease 400 % Increase in Risk Aortic Aneurysm

4. What works on tobacco control Framework Convention on Tobacco Control –Comprehensive advertising bans –Rotating health warning (>30%) –Ban misleading terms light –Protect citizens from exposure to secondhand smoke –Combat smuggling –Increase taxes Expose the tobacco industry (my own)

5. Copyright ©2004 BMJ Publishing Group Ltd. Sargent, R. P et al. BMJ 2004;328:977-980 Heart attack admissions during the 6 months (June-Nov) before, during (2002) and after smoke-free ordinance implementation. 2nd hand smoking is also important

6. WHO FCTC First global public health treaty Signed by 168 countries Ratified by 157 countries Went into force in February 2005

7. Objective To protect present and future generations from the devastating health, social, environmental and economic consequences of tobacco consumption and exposure to tobacco smoke...

9. Ratification of FCTC: an example of KTE Policymakers (legislators) are not well informed about the consequences of tobacco smoking. Few legislatores interested in reducing tobacco consumption. Few good quality local information and most of it in English. Few experts in tobacco control research

10. Opportunities Tobacco control research worldwide –Epidemic Political pressure –Politicians like to look good Good things are happening already –Need critical evaluation –Be opened to criticism

11. Challenges Tobacco industry –Well organized –Learned from the past –20 years ahead of us

12. What happened in Argentina We have got the information We have published it We have disseminated through the media Politicians were interested –Former Health Minister But…..

13. Tobacco situation in Argentina 5 provinces produces tobacco We have not ratified the FCTC yet Almost 30% of Argentinean population smokes A 20 cigarettes pack cost 1 l. gas Partial bans for smoking in public spaces Partial bans for advertising

14. What could work? Alliances with committed legislators More agresive journalists Improvement in how research results are transmited to policymakers Civil society engagment

15. Civil coalition with the objetive of promote 100% free smoke areas in Argentina