1. WTO Doha round Andres Oopkaup

2. Estonian Government policy at glance Extremely liberal Total and fast privatisation Low or non existent support level Modest rural support including some for agriculture Emphases on green box type support FTA-s Little support for marketing

3. Estonian trade conditions before joining EU Competitiveness, comparative advantage –price level (farm gate, inputs) –quality and product range –structures (primary, processing, trade) Outside conditions –tariffs (economical and political) –non tariff measures (hygiene and technical requirements)

4. OECD-s view to global trade development. Significant reduction of import tariffs Abolition of export subsidies Abolition of trade distorting domestic support (amber box) Direct payments - fully decoupled

5. WISH to CHANGE TRADING ENVIRONMENT; URA commitment TARGETS, AMBITIONS MODALITIES Precise numbers and formulas for commitments "SCHEDULES" Fixing commitment that were agreed and surveiliance DOHA MINISTERIAL 2001 DECLARATION 2000 BERLIN AGENDA BUDGET - enlargement DIRECT PAYMENTS vs PRICE SUPPORT CANCUN 2003 FAILURE SEATTLE MINISTERIAL 1999 FAILURE 2003 LUXEMBOURG CAP reform Decoupling GENF 2004, July agreement, EC conditional willingness to abolish ES HONG-KONG ( december 2005) Partial agreement that confirms willingness to move forward 2007 New Budget for 2007-2013 Time 2006 July - modalities FAILURE 2007 EC Proposals for “health check” MODALITIES To be agreed by 2008

6. Topic’s to be negotiated (single undertaking) Agriculture (MA, ES, DS); Non-agricultural products trade (NAMA); Trade in services; Rules (incl fisheries); Development agenda (package); Trade and Environment; Trade simplification;

7. Relative value of trade deficit, data of 1995-1998, %

8. G-10 G-33 ACP LDCs Cairns Group G-20 EU G-2 7 G–90 Recent new African Group Chad Burkina Faso Burundi Togo Central African Rep Djibouti DR Congo Mali Gambia Guinea Guinea Bissau Lesotho Malawi Mauritania Niger Sierra Leone Rwanda Benin Madagascar Senegal Uganda Zambia Tanzania Belize Barbados Antigua/Barbuda Dominican Rep Grenada Guyana St Vincent/Grenadines Trinidad/Tobago Jamaica Suriname St Kitts/Nevis St Lucia Gabon Ghana Namibia Honduras Mongolia Nicaragua Panama Peru Sri Lanka Turkey Nigeria Zimbabwe Botswana Cameroon Congo Côte d’Ivoire Kenya Mozambique Egypt Tunisia Morocco Angola Swaziland Mauritius R Korea Iceland Israel Japan Liechtenstein Norway Switzerland Ch Taipei Austria Belgium Cyprus Czech R Bulgaria Denmark Estonia Finland France Germany Greece Hungary Ireland Italy Latvia Lithuania Luxembourg Malta Netherlands Poland Portugal Romania Slovakia Slovenia Spain Sweden UK Mexico India China Venezuela Dominica Fiji Papua New Guinea Indonesia Pakistan Philippines Cuba Haiti Armenia FY Rep Macedonia Australia Canada Colombia Costa Rica Guatemala Malaysia N Zealand Chile Brazil Bolivia Uruguay Thailand Paraguay Argentina Bangladesh Cambodia Maldives Myanmar Nepal Hong Kong, Ch Saudi Arabia El Salvador Macao, Ch Singapore Kyrgyz R Qatar UAE Brunei Kuwait Bahrain Ecuador Albania Croatia Georgia Jordan Moldova Oman US G–1 S Africa Solomon Islands

10. Main subjectc for AG negociatrions Export Subsidies – “all types of Export Subsidies scrapped by 2013” Domestic Support Market Access

11. Different MA formulas

12. Complications for EC: short term Estonian view Substance and tactics: –EC CAP reform has been implemented, but this has been taken “as granted” in WTO –Competitors for us, are increasing support to agriculture (incl US); –Potential problems with “green box”; Some of WTO MS’s do not agree with EC internal challenges: environment, animal welfare, etc; –Dilemma on sensitive products; EC positions have to be adjusted but balance between MS’s – politically extremely sensitive! –EC member states have offensive and defensive; Agriculture is not the only subject for EC: balance between AG and NAMA and other negotiation subjects; –industrial products and services, –rules; –environment (incl trade in environmental goods);

13. DDA development: possible implications in case of negative results Globally: DDA negotiations will continue in XX years; –Multilateral trading environment in crisis (incl the whole WTO); –Increase in bilateral trade development (back in local and regional preference system); –Increase of protective attitude in trade; –Development will slow down; –New tensions in regional trade; For EC and Estonia: internal reforms will not contribute to negotiating power; –EC farmers will have to “pay” more; –Increasing pressure through WTO DSB: sugar, bananas etc.; –CAP reform will slow down: old- vs. new MS “situation is remaining; –EC internal competitive trade environment is getting worse;

14. DDA development: possible implications in case of positive results Globally: –Multilateral vs. bilateral; –Global (single) rules; –Development: increase in trade and incomes; –Increase in some food products price: i.e. milk, sugar; EC and Estonia: –EC farmer will “contribute” but other’s are in similar conditions; –Opportunities in trade to third countries markets will increase; –Pressure to develop flexible internal agricultural policy across the EC; –No need administratively regulate trade;

15. New challenges!? Bio- energy and trade in energyproducts General food shortage – need for different policies