1. Keeping an Eye on the Islands: Cooperative Remote Monitoring of the Spratly Islands in the South China Sea Vipin Gupta and Adam Bernstein Systems Research Dept. 8112 Sandia National Laboratory Livermore, California

2. A Multidisciplinary Collaboration Funded by the U.S. Institute for Peace –investigate the political, practical, and technical aspects of a possible cooperative monitoring regime in the Spratlys Contributors –John C. Baker GW SPI, project director –Drs. Vipin Gupta and Adam Bernstein, image analysis –Prof. Bradford Thomas, GW Geography Dept. - regional remote sensing capabilities –David Wiencek, Intl. Security Group -political analysis –Kevin OConnell, RAND - consultant on commercial imagery –Dr. Ray Williamson, GW SPI - consultant, remote sensing –Dr. Mark Valencia, East-West Center - Spratly disputes

3. The South China Sea The Spratlys

4. Conflict and Control States with claims to some or all islands: –China, the Philippines, Vietnam, Taiwan have occupied islands and occasionally fought –Brunei, Malaysia have made claims and/or occupy islands legal status hard to determine: –a variety of applicable laws and customs –countries interpret or ignore these as they see fit.

5. Whats done, what can be seen Invisible Activities Declaration of Ownership Sale of Drilling Rights Firing on/Sinking Rivals Ships Arrest of Civilians Encouragement of Tourism Potentially Visible Occupation with Troops, Buildings, Markers Drill Rig Construction Tourist Activities Landing Strips Military/Civil Ships

6. Possible Solutions Fight it out - Naval skirmishes, arrests, potentially hostile overflights Increase reliance on cooperative remote sensing What kind of monitoring can be done with satellites and/or aerial overflights? Ideally, military and civil intrusions could be conclusively idd (1 m imagery) But - what can be done now ?

7. Selected Platforms

8. Selected Islands

9. Thitu contrast inverted Radarsat Image- 1.3 km airstrip

10. Thitu Aerial images courtesy Agence France-Presse