1. Let Me See: Visualizing Actuarial Information Aleksey Popelyukhin, Ph.D. Vice President, Information Systems & Technology aleksey@commrisk.com C OMMERCIAL R ISK

2. Actuarial Process  Data Collection, Cleanup and Transformation  Application of Agorithms and Methods  Representation of Results 0

3. Actuarial Process 1 Algorithms Results Data

4. Ideal Actuarial System An ideal actuarial processing solution is a a) transparent to users and b) highly efficient storage/retrieval system for c) structured actuarial data (objects) with d) an extremely flexible, e) computationally complete, f) open calculation engine and g) integrated, h) automated and i) interactive report generator 2

5. Actuarially-Centric Systems Insurance companies build their computer systems around their strengths: u Claims u Accounting u Underwriting Actuarial Functionality is always an afterthought 2a

6. Human perception Relies heavily on Short-Term Memory. Problems with STM: u Can hold only 5-7 similar similar items at once u It’s a “ buffer ”: new info erases old information u Even without distractions can hold info only for 30 seconds 2b

7. Data-Driven Technologies 2c  Adaptive Reporting  Visualization  Alarm Systems

8. Adaptive Reporting  Adaptive Reporting u Filtering u Sorting u Outlining u Conditional Formatting u OLAP-enabled tools 2d

9. Adaptive Reporting: Filtering 3  Auto-Filter in Excel u Plain-Vanilla Filtering u Checking Distinct Values u Adaptive Filtering (through VBA)

10. Adaptive Reporting: Outlining 4  Outlining in Excel u Hierarchical view u Different level of details u Subtotals  Master-Detail relationship in Access

11. Adaptive Reporting: Sorting 5  Does not reduce amount of information displayed  Brings most important info on top or up front  Requires definition of importance

12. Adaptive Reporting: Dynamic Formatting 6  Conditional Formatting in Excel u allows users to define  font  color  border  background pattern of a cell as a function of the values in other cells

13. Adaptive Reporting: OLAP (Online Analitycal Processing) 7  Pivot Tables and OLAP cubes in Excel u Combine  Filtering  Outlining  Sorting u Add on-the-fly processing  Calculated Field  Calculated Item u Data Source is not limited by 65,536 rows

14. Visualization: Charts 8  There is a chart for every occasion: u line chart for displaying increases u bar for shares u pedestal for ranks u Gantt for schedules  But what about actuarial triangles?

15. Visualization: Charts 8a

16. Visualization: Maps 9  Maps in Microsoft MapPoint:  Colors  Shapes  Glyphs  Isosurfaces u Links to Office applications u VBA

17. Visualization: Animation 10 If a picture is worth a thousand words, then an animation is worth a thousand pictures  “ selective attention ”: people react on any movement (change in color, shape or position) u display of different stages in the motion u displacement plots u time animations u streamlines (traces)  For actuaries: iterations of simulation!

18. Visualization: Visual Tools 11  Making actuarial selections interactively, directly on the chart  Instant visual feedback  Changing parameters during animation: invaluable for DFA

19. Alarm Systems: Data Quality 12  Alarm System triggers an action whenever problem is found: u creates record in the log u sends e-mail u stops processing u runs additional tests

20. Alarm Systems: Algorithms Applicability 13  Actuarial assumptions testing u Mack u Murphy u Zehnwirth

21. Alarm Systems: Digital Dashboard 14  Portal to the most important info u Corporate u Professional u Personal  Dashboard’s space limitations re- emphasize the necessity of space- conscious reporting techniques!

22. Conclusion 15 For effective use of computerized reporting tools available to actuaries, it is imperative to define measurable indicators of actuarial significance…

23. Conclusion 15 “ The gods help them that help themselves.” Aesop

24. Me.About Actuarially related activities: Prize for the best article in the “Data Management discussion paper” call (1997). Creation and distribution of actuarial software Triangle Maker® (1994), Triangle Maker® Pro (1997), Actuarial Toolchest™ (1998), Enabler™ (1999) Design, development and coding of the 2nd and 3rd (current) generation of Affinity (1996) Promotion of notions like Ideal Actuarial System and Data Quality Shield, and paradigms like object-oriented actuarial software and data-driven visualization. Presently developing an integrated pricing/reserving/DFA computer system for reinsurance and also an action/adventure computer game tentatively called “Actuarial Judgement”. An active member of several scientific societies and an author of almost 20 scientific publications. end