1. Emerging ideas on adaptation to climate change
Anand Patwardhan
Executive Director
Technology Information, Forecasting and Assessment Council, Ministry of Science & Technology
Will talk not only about the current state of science, but also current state in terms of the policy dialogue and policy thinking

2. Anand Patwardhan - BASIC project India workshop
Outline
State of science and evolution of understanding
Research needs (adaptive capacity, indicators)
Action on adaptation
Staged approach
Funding
Way forward
Principles and operationalization
Emerging themes
Adaptation and sustainable development
Mainstreaming
Broadly my talk will have 3 parts – state of science, review of the state of action and thinking on action, and finally some new ideas for taking the dialogue further.
May 2006
Anand Patwardhan - BASIC project India workshop

3. Anand Patwardhan - BASIC project India workshop
Key concepts
Adaptation Adjustment in natural or human systems in response to actual or expected climatic stimuli or their effects, which moderates harm or exploits beneficial opportunities. Types of adaptation include anticipatory and reactive adaptation, private and public adaptation, and autonomous and planned adaptation
Adaptive Capacity The ability of a system to adjust to climate change (including climate variability and extremes) to moderate potential damages, to take advantage of opportunities, or to cope with the consequences
Sensitivity Sensitivity is the degree to which a system is affected, either adversely or beneficially, by climate-related stimuli.
Vulnerability The degree to which a system is susceptible to, or unable to cope with, adverse effects of climate change, including climate variability and extremes. Vulnerability is a function of the character, magnitude, and rate of climate variation to which a system is exposed, its sensitivity, and its adaptive capacity
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May 2006
Anand Patwardhan - BASIC project India workshop

4. Why is adaptation important?
Regardless of mitigation, we are faced with a finite, and significant degree of anthropogenic climate change
Managing climate risk is likely to be important for sustainable development
For both these reasons, adaptation should be an important part of policy response to climate change
May 2006
Anand Patwardhan - BASIC project India workshop

5. Evolving ideas on adaptation
Adaptation viewed purely as a response mechanism
Adaptation as an element of scenario-impact assessments
Vulnerability and adaptive capacity as central themes in adaptation
Adaptation and sustainable development: mainstreaming adaptation
May 2006
Anand Patwardhan - BASIC project India workshop

6. Initial thinking on adaptation – a function of response
Adaptation viewed as ‘adjustments’ made in ‘practices, processes, or structures of systems to projected or actual changes in climate’
At the end of the sequential process identified for impact assessments
Seven step methodology for impact assessment in the IPCC Second Assessment Report
Define the problem
Select method of assessment
Test methods/ conduct sensitivity analysis
Select and apply climate change scenarios
Assess biophysical and socio-economic impacts
Assess autonomous adjustments
Evaluate adaptation strategies
May 2006
Anand Patwardhan - BASIC project India workshop

7. Insights from the IPCC Third Assessment Report
Vulnerability and adaptation given significant importance in WG II, shift in emphasis from “mechanistic” impact assessment
Importance of extreme events, cross-sectoral analysis and multiple stresses
Regional predictions still highly uncertain, important phenomena not well captured (monsoon)
Focus on adaptation, recognition of the link with development and equity issues, introduce concepts such as adaptive capacity
Recognition that those with least resources have the least ability to adapt
May 2006
Anand Patwardhan - BASIC project India workshop

8. Preliminary ideas from the IPCC Fourth Assessment Report
Adaptation defined as adjustments made to ‘enhance resilience’ or ‘reduce vulnerability’
Adaptation practices may be looked at from various perspectives:
Spatial scale
Sectors
Climate stress / hazard
Baseline economic development level of the systems they are implemented in
Relating adaptation to adaptive capacity
Adaptive capacity represents potential rather than actual adaptation
May 2006
Anand Patwardhan - BASIC project India workshop

9. Research issues in adaptation
Indicators and measuring adaptation
Adaptive capacity
Structuring and formulating adaptation interventions
Impacts – proximate, non-proximate; marginal, non-marginal, stocks vs. flows
Interactions across scales (spatial, temporal, institutional) – aggregation issues
Extremes and variability
Scenarios
May 2006
Anand Patwardhan - BASIC project India workshop

10. Anand Patwardhan - BASIC project India workshop
Measuring adaptation
What should be measured?
Hazard
Risk
Exposure
Vulnerability
Impacts
Adaptation intervention
Effectiveness of adaptation intervention
May 2006
Anand Patwardhan - BASIC project India workshop

11. Anand Patwardhan - BASIC project India workshop
Adaptive capacity
Autonomous – what responses are happening (will happen) automatically?
How will impacts be perceived, how will they be evaluated and how will response take place?
Who will respond, in what way?
Adaptive capacity is influenced not only by factors that promote or constrain the adoption of technologies and management practices, but also by the economic, social, political, environmental, institutional, and cultural factors that create both external and internal incentives as well as barriers to adaptation
May 2006
Anand Patwardhan - BASIC project India workshop

12. Anand Patwardhan - BASIC project India workshop
Action on adaptation
Types of interventions
Financing and supporting adaptation
International actions
Approach for moving forward
May 2006
Anand Patwardhan - BASIC project India workshop

13. Range of adaptation responses
May 2006
Anand Patwardhan - BASIC project India workshop

14. Classifying adaptation measures
May 2006
Anand Patwardhan - BASIC project India workshop

15. Time-scales of response
Anticipatory adaptation to climate change risks may take place at three levels:
Adaptation to current variability
For observed medium change/variability
Long-term changes
Responses across the three levels are closely intertwined, and indeed might form a continuum.
Visible shift of emphasis from first level to the second and third levels
Increasing examples of measures taken to cope with the impacts of observed trends in climate, as well as scenarios of climate change.
Tsho Rolpa risk reduction project in Nepal
Quinhai-Tibet Railway in China
Konkan Railway in Western India
Thames Barrier in UK
Copenhagen metro in Denmark
May 2006
Anand Patwardhan - BASIC project India workshop

16. Initial thinking on action
Adaptation within the financial mechanism of the Convention
Identification of need for programming adaptation interventions within the climate change response framework
Designing a framework for funding adaptation
Initial thoughts on adaptation viewed it as an independent process rather than an action taken in integration with ongoing programmes
Thus, the staged approach to adaptation surfaced in the UNFCCC (decision 11/CP.1)
Views adaptation in three stages of interventions
Identifies adaptation interventions as sequential, one leading to another
Has been the programming guideline for financing adaptation in the international arena
May 2006
Anand Patwardhan - BASIC project India workshop

17. Staged approach to adaptation
Stage I: planning through studies to identify vulnerabilities (vulnerable countries and regions), policy options (for adaptation response measures), and appropriate capacity building
Stage II: identifying measures to prepare for adaptation and further capacity building
Stage III: promoting measures to facilitate adaptation, including insurance and other adaptation interventions
May 2006
Anand Patwardhan - BASIC project India workshop

18. Taking the dialogue further
What needs to be funded – guiding principles for funding adaptation
Identification of ‘concrete’ – what will define the concrete adaptation measures
Mainstreaming – what and how
Exploring new mechanisms and tools
What should be measured and how – identifying indicators
May 2006
Anand Patwardhan - BASIC project India workshop

19. Anand Patwardhan - BASIC project India workshop
What should be funded?
What kinds of projects?
Pilot vs. full
Climate variability vs. anthropogenic climate change
Climate and non-climate benefits
Are there a set of projects that have unambiguous climate change linkages
May 2006
Anand Patwardhan - BASIC project India workshop

20. Principles for funding adaptation
Automaticity in contributions
Adequacy and predictability of resources
Move from enabling activities to real projects
Guiding the institutional process
Ensuring flexibility
Expediting the process
Enabling wider access
Re-programming the approach to funding adaptation
May 2006
Anand Patwardhan - BASIC project India workshop

21. Identifying ‘concrete’ interventions
Moving away from the ‘staged approach’
New knowledge acquired on the theme of adaptation suggests that adaptation interventions are NOT sequential
Adaptation interventions are now viewed in integration with each other and the development programmes
Need for identifying a new approach that identifies major types of interventions that can be taken up across sectors relevant in sustainable development
May 2006
Anand Patwardhan - BASIC project India workshop

22. Towards a portfolio approach
A portfolio of broad interventions for adaptation
Interventions may be identified through the views and priorities expressed in the Convention and the various decisions
Mainstreaming activities
Technology development and transfer
Insurance
May 2006
Anand Patwardhan - BASIC project India workshop

23. Technology development and transfer as a tool for adaptation
Technology transfer is very relevant
Role of traditional knowledge and capturing the value
The dialogue needs to be extended to include
Technology development
Adoption of technology
Barrier removal
Favorable market mechanisms
Creating enabling environment
May 2006
Anand Patwardhan - BASIC project India workshop

24. Anand Patwardhan - BASIC project India workshop
Insurance
Insurance as an instrument for providing ‘risk-cover’ against the impacts of climate change and variability, specifically for extreme weather events.
Exploring the tool
Creation of viable insurance markets requires risk pooling and reinsurance mechanisms
The former might require pooling across sectors and even countries
The latter might require access to a source of funds that is generated through automatic contributions
Possibilities
Public-private partnerships
Disaster risk insurance
May 2006
Anand Patwardhan - BASIC project India workshop

25. Linking adaptation and sustainable development
Emerging realization of the links between climate change and sustainable development
IPCC (2001) identified that ‘activities required for enhancement of adaptive capacity are essentially equivalent to those promoting sustainable development’.
It has further been understood that climate change adaptation and equity goals can be achieved through the route taken for achieving development goals such as improving food security, provision of safe drinking water, shelter and health care and access to other resources.
May 2006
Anand Patwardhan - BASIC project India workshop

26. Mainstreaming adaptation
Mainstreaming adaptation into development activities – leverage concessional developmental funds?
Increasingly, many developmental activities (for example in infrastructure) are being implemented by the private sector
How can we evaluate the portfolio of development projects to:
Assess implications of climate change for project benefits?
Assess implications of project for reducing vulnerability to climate change?
Related question:
How can we incrementally adjust project design or implementation to enhance climate change related benefits?
Mainstreaming in practice
Building ownership among stakeholders
Engaging private sector as active partners in sustainable development programmes
May 2006
Anand Patwardhan - BASIC project India workshop

27. Barriers to adaptation
Financial
Increased realisation that available funding may not always be sufficient to cover the financial requirements of rehabilitation, mitigation and adaptation, specifically in case of extreme events
Therefore, Insurance may be an instrument worth exploring
Institutional
Social and Cultural
Technological
Informational
May 2006
Anand Patwardhan - BASIC project India workshop

28. Anand Patwardhan - BASIC project India workshop
Future directions
Research issues in adaptation science
Focused research on methodologies for mainstreaming adaptation
Development and diffusion of technologies for adaptation in developing countries
Fostering public-private partnerships for mainstreaming as well as technology development and transfer
Exploring innovative funding mechanisms that provide automaticity for resource generation
Exploring insurance as the tool for providing risk cover against climate change and variability
May 2006
Anand Patwardhan - BASIC project India workshop