1. Analysis of knowledge and manageability of stresses, threats and contributing factors Phase II Systemic Vulnerability and Risk Analysis Step 16 © Pierre Ibisch 2014

2. Credits and conditions of use 14. Analysis of knowledge and manageability of stresses, threats and contributing factors2 You are free to share this presentation and adapt it for your use under the following conditions: You must attribute the work in the manner specified by the authors (but not in any way that suggests that they endorse you or your use of the work). You may not use this work for commercial purposes. If you alter, transform, or build upon this work, you must remove the Centre for Econics and Ecosystem Management logo, and you may distribute the resulting work only under the same or similar conditions to this one. © Centre for Econics and Ecosystem Management, 2014 The Centre for Econics and Ecosystem Management strongly recommends that this presentation is given by experts familiar with the adaptive management process in general (especially as designed as the Conservation Measures Partnership’s Open Standards for the Practice of Conservation) as well as the MARISCO Method itself. This material was created under the leadership and responsibility of Prof. Dr. Pierre Ibisch and Dr. Peter Hobson, co- directors of the Centre for Econics and Ecosystem Management, which was jointly established by Eberswalde University for Sustainable Development and Writtle College. Compare: Ibisch, P.L. & P.R. Hobson (eds.) (2014): The MARISCO method: Adaptive MAnagement of vulnerability and RISk at COnservation sites. A guidebook for risk-robust, adaptive, and ecosystem-based conservation of biodiversity. Centre for Econics and Ecosystem Management, Eberswalde (ISBN 978-3-00-043244-6). 195 pp. - The Powerpoint Presentation was conceived by Jamie Call, Christina Lehmann and Pierre Ibisch. Authors of graphs and photographs are indicated on the corresponding slides. Supported by the Deutsche Gesellschaft für Internationale Zusammenarbeit (GIZ) GmbH on behalf of the Bundesministerium für wirtschaftliche Zusammenarbeit und Entwicklung (BMZ).

3. 14. Analysis of knowledge and manageability of stresses, threats and contributing factors3

4. Learning objectives Participants have a clear understanding and are able to explain the use of analysing the availability of knowledge and manageability as important inputs for the design of strategies and monitoring design taking into account uncertainty, knowledge gaps and risks related to them. Participants have the skills to guide through the process of assessing the availability of knowledge and the manageability regarding every stress, threat and contributing factor due to the according criteria in the MARISCO handbook. 14. Analysis of knowledge and manageability of stresses, threats and contributing factors4

5. ? Outline What is an analysis of knowledge? What is an analysis of manageability? Why should we analyse knowledge? Why should we analyse manageability? How can we analyse knowledge? How can we analyse manageability? Practical Tips 14. Analysis of knowledge and manageability of stresses, threats and contributing factors5

6. ? What is an analysis of knowledge? In the context of ecosystem management strategies, “knowledge” comprises all possible dimensions that can be known about an element (e.g. its relevance in the cause-effect network, behavior and dynamics) 14. Analysis of knowledge and manageability of stresses, threats and contributing factors6 Knowledge analysis: process of classifying the level of knowledge existing within the planning group (not including scientific institutions outside) about the stresses, threats and contributing factors © Pierre Ibisch 2014 Process of examining what is known, what could be known and what is unknowable

7. ? What is an analysis of knowledge? Embracing the incom- pleteness of information and knowledge Concrete step in the MARISCO methodology, but should also be ongoing (where participants share their expertise) All knowledge gathered during the MARISCO process is open to be complemented or challenged by other participants 14. Analysis of knowledge and manageability of stresses, threats and contributing factors7 © Christina Lehmann 2015 I know… And/but I know…

8. ? What is an analysis of manageability? “Manageability” describes the ability to reduce threats and changes to biodiversity through management strategies Analysis of manageability is a systematic and informed assessment of the situation in the conservation area It attempts to look impartially at the situation and develop adaptation strategies which deal with unchangeable aspects by decreasing the vulnerability of the area It avoids displacement and fatalism 14. Analysis of knowledge and manageability of stresses, threats and contributing factors8 → This includes focusing on easily manageable strategies or tackling a problem locally, resulting in manifestation of threats elsewhere © Christina Lehmann 2015

9. ? Why should we analyse knowledge? Conceptual model and strategies produced by a project team are only as good as the information that was put into them → Knowledge analyses aim for a well-informed decision-making process for strategy development Participants working from the same knowledge base are more likely to develop cohesive strategies, effectively tackling problems In the process of gathering knowledge may trigger knowledge increase of participants When all available knowledge has been collected and analyzed: possibility to identify knowledge deficits Projects which work off of false assumptions or premises can be avoided (time and financial resources are conserved) Institutional weaknesses avoiding an increase of knowledge may be highlighted 14. Analysis of knowledge and manageability of stresses, threats and contributing factors9

10. ? Why should we analyse manageability? A systematic assessment of the manageability of stresses, threats and their contributing factors provides the basis for rationalizing action Although some threats seem impractical or impossible to manage, they also require strategies Consideration of the ability to manage threats and change, well- guided, realistic and effective strategies can be designed By analyzing manageability, strategies which help to adapt to very important but unmanageable factors (e.g. those linked to climate change) can be developed 14. Analysis of knowledge and manageability of stresses, threats and contributing factors10

11. ? Why should manageability be analyzed? Example: In a certain region, forest fires are more common due to long-term drought linked to climate change. While few, if any, actions can be taken to increase rainfall, strategies which prevent or reduce the occurrence of forest fires can be implemented. 14. Analysis of knowledge and manageability of stresses, threats and contributing factors11 © Christina Lehmann 2015

12. ? How can we analyse knowledge? Using the conceptual model as developed so far, analyze the knowledge according to the following categories: Apply appropriately-coloured stickers to Box 13. “Knowledge” on corresponding stress-, threat-, or contributing factor cards: 14. Analysis of knowledge and manageability of stresses, threats and contributing factors12 © CEEM 2014

13. ? How can we analyse manageability? Using the conceptual model as developed so far, analyze the manageability according to the following categories: Apply appropriately-coloured stickers to Box 12. “Manageability” on corresponding stress-, threat-, or contributing factor cards: 14. Analysis of knowledge and manageability of stresses, threats and contributing factors13 © CEEM 2014

14. ? Practical Tips Try to make the participants understand that it is not a sign of weakness to judge the own and general knowledge or manageability low →They need to be realistic in order to find leverage elements that really could make a change in the system Results may be influenced by over-optimistic estimation: good managers might see some factors to be more manageability than the reality 14. Analysis of knowledge and manageability of stresses, threats and contributing factors14