1. John Ferree NWS Severe Storms Services Leader
Warning Improvements
Second Workshop on Severe Weather Technology for NWS Warning Decision Making Tuesday, July 10, 2007
John Ferree NWS Severe Storms Services Leader
May 8, 2003

2. Some Things to Think About
How does the technology discussed assist in other high impact events?
Hurricanes, Volcanoes, Accidents, Terrorism
What are the roles of partners in defining requirements?
What are the impacts of changes in dissemination technology?
How do we improve on our best performances?
First and Last Slide

3. Can We Do Better? Warning Performance on March 12, 2006
95 Tornado Events
POD = 99%
Tornado Average Lead Time = 23.1 min
Tornado FAR = 68%

4. Quote from an Emergency Manager
“For my purposes, (severe thunderstorm and tornado) watches aren’t that useful. Usually, they are too early. I don’t want to deploy spotters and have them wait four hours for the weather. Warnings are always too late. Give us about an hour lead time before the severe storms get here.”
As a backdrop for the discussion – just a reminder of what our mission is within NOAA/NWS – and that the mission encompasses
protection of life and property AND enhancement of the economy.
I’ll describe how SR Warnings will result in such economic enhancement – in addition to the obvious first priority of saving lives.

5. Science, Technology, Societal Impacts Collide

6. Inclusive – Anybody can throw in an idea!
Formal Gates

7. OSIP Projects in this Presentation
| Storm-Based Warnings
| Synchronization of preliminary LSR and Storm Data Event Types
| Next Generation Warning Tool

8. A Few Other Projects of Interest

9. 05-080 | Storm-Based Warnings
Three simultaneous tornadoes within line of severe thunderstorms
More specific
Increased clarity
Supports new dissemination technology
The next several slides will address the reason WHY the NWS is going to a SBW system.
First, here is an example to illustrate some of the benefits of going from county-based warning to storm-based warnings. In this case, there were actually three significant tornadoes on the ground at the same time. Eight counties were included in tornado warnings, with almost a million people under a tornado warning. With storm-based tornado warnings, only those area that are threatened are in the warning, not the entire county. In this case, 70 percent less area was covered by warnings, and approximately 600,000 fewer people would encouraged to take immediate cover. A test of storm-based warnings in 2005, actually showed that warning area could be reduced by around 70 percent. There are several other benefits to going to storm-based warnings including being able to increase specificity and clarity with the warning. Since any particular community will be under warning less on average in the new storm-based system, the hope is that over time confidence in NWS warnings will increase, and those under warning will be more likely to take action.
The more geographically based warnings also are supported by new dissemination technologies.
County-Based Tornado Warnings
8 Counties under warning
Almost 1 million people warned
Storm-Based Tornado Warnings
70% less area covered
~600,000 fewer people warned

10. Private Sector Use of Storm-Based Warnings Increases

11. Storm-Based = GIS Based
WFO Fort Worth is combining SB warnings and U.S. Census information.
It is valuable to know if an area has a high percentage of citizens who are elderly or English is a second language.

12. Digital Emergency Alert System (DEAS) Increased Direct Dissemination
Any digital device
Digital TV
Satellite Radio
Internet
Cell Phone
PDA
Geo-located
Text, Audio, Video
The previous slide showed how our SB warnings can now be displayed on a number of devices.
A recent NSF study shows a majority of Americans now obtain weather information via the internet and TV.
More difficult is how to describe a SB warning via text or voice. For now, EAS still warns entire counties, including NWR.
DEAS is under development for possible implementation in 2008 and will go a long way towards solving this problem by immediately activating devices within geo-targeted area. Of course, that could include devices which are in moving vehicles with enter SB warned areas.
To start plotting a course towards the future, a dissemination workshop was recently held at TAMU with participation by federal, state and local EM staff. Purpose: Discuss how warnings can become more machine readable for rapid transmission over a variety of digital devices.

13. Outstanding Issues for Storm-Based Warnings
County Warning Area (CWA) boundaries
Multiple warnings in a county
CAP format
Local Storm Report (LSR) improvements
Here are four outstanding issues for storm-based warnings that we are targeting for improvement in the upcoming year.

14. County Warning Area Boundaries
Madison
Bond
Clinton
Fayette
Marion
St. Clair
Washington
Randolph
Perry
Jackson
Franklin
Jefferson
Hamilton
Williamson
Saline
Wayne
Clay
STL
PAH
ILX
St. Louis CWA
Paducah CWA
Lincoln CWA
There are challenges for storm-based warnings that still need to be worked out. In the example the tornadic storm is in Randolph County, IL with is in the St. Louis NWS office forecast and warning area. The storm will be moving NE and impact both portions of Perry County, IL that is in Paducah’s County Warning Area (CWA). In this example, ,having multiple warnings for Randolph, Washington, and Perry county is not ideal. It would be better if the one office could issue a storm-based warning for the entire area. To do this will take extensive operational testing to make sure there is adequate collaboration between offices, and that all dissemination systems are prepared to handle this issue.

15. County Warning Area Boundaries
ILX
Bond
Fayette
Madison
Clay
STL
Marion
St. Louis CWA
Paducah CWA
Lincoln CWA
Clinton
Issued by PAH
St. Clair
Wayne
Issued by STL
Washington
Jefferson
There are challenges for storm-based warnings that still need to be worked out. In the example the tornadic storm is in Randolph County, IL with is in the St. Louis NWS office forecast and warning area. The storm will be moving NE and impact both portions of Perry County, IL that is in Paducah’s County Warning Area (CWA). In this example, ,having multiple warnings for Randolph, Washington, and Perry county is not ideal. It would be better if the one office could issue a storm-based warning for the entire area. To do this will take extensive operational testing to make sure there is adequate collaboration between offices, and that all dissemination systems are prepared to handle this issue.
Perry
Hamilton
Randolph
PAH
Franklin
Jackson
Saline
Williamson

16. Multiple Warnings in One County/Parish
Issue for text, radio, TV crawls
Add reference to other valid warnings
Include counties with directional delimiters?
Summary severe weather statements?
Bond
Fayette
Madison
Marion
Clinton
SVR until 3:45PM
St. Clair
Washington
Jefferson
A challenge for the listening audience or text only users is when there are multiple warnings over the same county, there is a potential for confusion. In the example, when a listener in Washington county hears that the tornado warning has expired at 3:30PM they will also need to know that the severe thunderstorm warning continues until 3:45PM. This may require a list of other valid warnings appended to each warning at issuance. Another consideration yet to be determined is if there will be summary severe weather statements when multiple warnings are in effect? These are all ideas that will be tested first in simulations, and then in limited real-time situations in consultation with the private sector prior to nationwide deployment.
TOR until 3:30PM
Perry
Randolph
Franklin
Jackson
Williamson

17. Federal Communications Commission Announcement
CAP Format
“The Order requires EAS participants to accept messages using Common Alerting Protocol (CAP)…to ensure the efficient and rapid transmission of EAS alerts to the American public in a variety of formats (including text, audio and video) and via different means (broadcast, cable, satellite, and other networks) and to promote the development of Next Generation EAS.”
Federal Communications Commission Announcement
May 31, 2007
A related project is to put our warnings in CAP (Common Alerting Protocol) format. This will benefit storm-based warnings by making the warning area digitally available to a wider office, and more flexible to add information.

18. Local Storm Report Improvements
NWSI page 12
Why so many other LSR programs?
SevereClear
WHIRL
WarnSpot
More…
Section Creation Software. WFOs should use the AWIPS LSR generation software for reports.

19. 06-056 | Local Storm Reports Individual report output with VTEC ETN
Accurate corrections
Cumulative report output
One line per report (15 reports in 15 lines)
Flexible time range (severe reports 18Z – 21Z)
Flexible report type (snowfall accumulation)
CAP/XML Format
Integrates with StormData
Timeliness and accuracy of Local Storm Reports will be an emphasis during the next year. We are also working on some substantial improvements to the LSR listed here.

20. 06-056 | Local Storm Reports Run from AWIPS or PC Point and Click Map
Google Earth Type
GIS
Lat/Lon is report location
Direction from town/landmark is only an estimate
Support Street Addresses
Overlays with warnings, reports, mesoscale data, radar data, etc.
Integrates with

21. Current Efforts SevereClear – Jason Burks (Huntville ITO)
? - Alaska SIB (WFO Friendly)
IEM COW – Daryl Herzmann (Iowa State)
WarnSpot – Greg Garrett (Jackson SOO)
WHIRL – Matthew Sardi and Steven Fano (FTW)
National Performance Management Committee

22. Proposal for Short Term
National support for a local PC based application
Similar to GHG development
Chose the best
Developer input
Work Team
Implement with training by Jan. 1, 2008

23. Proposal for Long Term
Begin OSIP project for Next Generation LSR system
Link with Next Generation Warning Tool development
Target first opportunity in AWIPS 2 Architecture

24. 04-008 Next Generation Warning Tool
Need for a consistent user interface
WarnGen
GHG
River Pro
Allow forecasters to focus on what, where and when of warnings
Formatting tools deliver content that is consistent and meets needs of users
Hazard Grid in GHG

25. Additional Benefits of NGWT
Minimize training, support resources
Foundation for future requirements
Allow long fuse warnings to leverage the digital forecast process
Anticipate changes in formats and allow greater geographical specificity

26. Summary and Discussion
Storm-Based Warnings
Local Storm Reports
Next Generation Warning Tool
Others?
Contact Information
Phone:

27. More Discussion Topics
How does the technology discussed assist in other high impact events?
Hurricanes, Volcanoes, Accidents, Terrorism
What are the roles of partners in defining requirements?
What are the impacts of changes in dissemination technology?
How do we improve on our best performances?
First and Last Slide

28. Backup Slides

29. Storm-Based Warnings Require New Set of Performance Measures
FY06
FY07
(new)
FY08
FY09
FY10
FY11
FY12
FY13
Tornado Warning Accuracy (%) 75 76
Tornado False Alarm Rate (%) 78
Tornado Lead Time (min.) 13
Storm-Based Tornado Warning Accuracy (%) 67 69 70 72
Storm-Based Tornado False Alarm Rate (%) 74
Storm-Based Tornado Lead Time (min.) 11 12
Because SB represents such a big change in the way we issue warnings, the way in which we evaluate our performance must also change. The existing performance targets are shown at the top of the table; the new SB targets at the bottom. These go into effect Oct. 1.
Missed Accuracy – long hot summer resulting in more pulse-type unpredictable storms rather than organized lines. Record hot June
A little discussion: If you think of an archer shooting at a target, if you reduce the size of the target, there will be more misses.
So, we’ve set our accuracy target lower in 2008 and beyond to reflect this, with expected improvements back towards current values as our forecasters become more experienced with SB warning use.
Lead Time may also fall statistically because a “miss” is assigned a “zero lead time”.
But we expect FAR may actually improve right off the bat – there are actually trade-offs between “false positives” and “false negatives” as shown in the next two slides.
The new numbers are based on an entirely different system and still represent a tremendous service improvement. The apparently falling numbers simply represent that we’ve just set the bar much higher for ourselves.
Government Performance Results Act (GPRA) Tornado Warning Performance Goals

30. Feature Tracking Added
Location and motion of feature
Estimated location of tornado, leading edge of gust front, leading edge of hail core, or other.
AT 425 PM MST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED 12 MILES SOUTHWEST OF AKRON...AND MOVING NORTHEAST AT 20 MPH.
THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR... AKRON AND 8 MILES WEST OF LATNER BY 500 PM MST LAT...LON TIME...MOT...LOC 2325Z 248DEG 18KT
The only major change prior to the implementation is the addition of the feature location and movement in coded format below the latitude and longitude of the polygon vertices. Other enhancements are likely and we will rely on input from the Weather Enterprise for guidance.

31. OB8.1 Enhancements Support Storm-Based Warnings
Better Matching along CWA Boundary

32. OB8.1 Enhancements Support Storm-Based Warnings
New Multi-Colored Warning Displays with Frequent Updating

33. OB8.1 Enhancements Support Storm-Based Warnings
Can’t expand an existing warning

34. OB8.1 Enhancements Support Storm-Based Warnings
What you hatch is what you get!

35. OB8.1 Enhancements Support Storm-Based Warnings
What you hatch is what you get!
Redo Box

36. OB8.2 Proposed Changes for Storm-Based Warnings
Collaboration polygons
Separate land/marine warnings - one polygon
FFMP basin map available with WarnGen
Add section in text listing other existing warnings in same counties
Depiction of archived warnings – pick list

37. TDWR Data Access Expanding

38. TDWR Central Data Collection
KGSP WSR-88D
TCLT TDWR

39. RDA/RPG Build 9.0 Deployed April-November
Sachidananda-Zrnic (SZ) 2 Algorithm
Applied only to Split Cut elevations (“2” for two rotations)
Implemented on lowest 2 or 3 elevations of specific VCPs
211, 212, 221
Significantly greater velocity data recovery
Can often recover velocity from two overlaid trips

40. Legacy VCPs

41. VCP 211
SZ-2 VCPs
VCP 212
VCP 221

42. SZ-2 Performance Same Antenna
Legacy Range Unfolding
SZ-2

43. SZ-2 Performance Separate (but close!) Antennas
Legacy Range Unfolding
SZ-2

44. Four-Dimensional Stormcell Investigator (FSI)
Can update X-Section line by dragging reference points
2D and 3D pictures are linked
Other representations update on-the-fly
The Lemon Technique

45. FSI Configuration FSIalpha will have a linked 4-panel design: PPI
Plan
Position
Indicator
VDX
Vertical
Dynamic
X-Section
CAPPI
Constant
Altitude
PPI
3D Flier
Three-
Dimensional
Flier

46. Summary of Benefits of FSI
Improved vertical cross-sections
Constant Altitude cross-sections (CAPPIs)
3D visualization
Virtual Volumes
Access to entire data inventory

47. Radar Improvements in 2008
Three new Super Resolution Digital Base Products (SDR, SDV, SDW)
0.5 degree azimuths
0.25 kilometer reflectivity to 460 km
0.25 velocity & spectrum width to 300 km
All elevation cuts at and below 1.8 deg
Both Precipitation Mode and Clear Air Mode
VCP 122
Improved version of VCP 121
For the Split Cut tilts, there is one SZ-2 Doppler rotation along with a second CD rotation

48. Super Resolution Reflectivity
0.5 deg Super Resolution Z
0.5 deg Normal Z

49. Super Resolution Velocity
0.5 deg Super Resolution V
0.5 deg Normal V

50.
For additional information, including information on progress on the issues presented in this presentation see our web site at