1. Global Carbon Observatory Pep Canadell GCP-CSIRO Marine and Atmospheric Research With contributions and thanks to: Philippe Ciais, David Crisp, Roger Dargaville, Stephen Plummer, Michael Raupach Integrated Global Carbon Observations - IGCO

2. Outline 1.Goals and Vision for a global C observatory 2. Major types of observations 3. Satellite observations Carbon from space: OCO, GOSAT 4. In situ observations 5.Process understanding Linking observations to processes Fundamental research and model development

3. 1. Goals and Vision of a Carbon Observatory To provide the long-term observations required to improve understanding of the present state and future behavior of the global carbon cycle, particularly the factors that control the global atmospheric CO 2 level and feedbacks to climate. To measure carbon sources and sinks from global to regional scales in a way that can inform the development of international climate treaties, and methodologies for national GHGs budgets and domestic policies. To monitor and assess the effectiveness of carbon sequestration and/or emission reduction activities on global atmospheric CO 2 levels, including attribution of sources and sinks by region and sector. IGCO 2004, GCP 2003

4. Vision for a Carbon Cycle Model-Data Assimilation System Ocean remote sensing Ocean colour Altimetry Winds SST SSS Ocean remote sensing Ocean colour Altimetry Winds SST SSS Ocean time series Biogeochemical pCO 2 Surface observation pCO 2 nutrients Water column inventories Remote sensing of Vegetation properties Growth Cycle Fires Biomass Radiation Land cover /use Remote sensing of Vegetation properties Growth Cycle Fires Biomass Radiation Land cover /use Ecological studies Biomass soil carbon inventories Eddy-covariance flux towers Remote sensing of Atmospheric CO 2 Atmospheric measurements Georeference emissions inventories Data assimilation link Climate and weather fields Terrestrial carbon model Terrestrial carbon model Atmospheric Transport model Atmospheric Transport model Ocean carbon model optimized fluxes optimized model parameters Lateral fluxes Coastal studies Rivers IGCO 2004

5. 1980-2000 Mean Net Flux to the Atmosphere (gC m -2 y -1 ) Data Assimilated: Atmospheric [CO 2 ] AVHRR - PAR 12 Functional Veg. Types Multiple Constraints Data Assimilation for Carbon Cycle Models: atmospheric transport model terrestrial biosphere (BETHY) Rayner et al. 2005 TransCom resolution Transport Model Atmospheric CO 2 Continental to Sub-continental Resolution

6. 2. Types of Observations Complementary core groups of observations to address three themes: Fluxes : observations to enable quantification of the distribution and variability of the CO 2 fluxes between the Earth’s surface and the atmosphere. Pools : Observations on changes in the atmospheric, oceanic, and terrestrial reservoir carbon pools. Process : Measurements related to the important carbon cycle processes that control fluxes.

7. Atmospheric column CO 2 concentration measured from satellites Atmospheric CO 2 concentration measured from in situ networks Land-atmosphere CO 2 flux measured via eddy covariance flux network Global, synoptic satellite observations to extrapolate in situ data Fluxes Forest biomass inventories Soil carbon inventories Carbon storage in the sediments of reservoirs, lakes Carbon storage in anthropogenic pools, primarily wood products Pools IGCO 2004

8. Basin-scale observations of the air-sea flux (ocean pCO 2 ) from ship-based measurements, drifters and time series Global, synoptic satellite observations to extrapolate in situ data Winds, SST, SSS, ocean colour Fluxes Sediment trap and sea-floor studies, with a special emphasis on coastal sediments Basin-scale ocean inventories with full column sampling of carbon system parameters Pools IGCO 2004

9. 3. Priorities for Satellite Observations Column-integrated atmospheric CO 2 Atmospheric CO 2 and aerosols Biomass burning CH 4 emissions Column integrated CH 4 Atmospheric structure, temperature, humidity, winds. Land-cover change Ecosystem disturbances Directional reflectance Ocean color Ancillary terrestrial data Ancillary oceanic data Forest aboveground biomass Wetland coverage New Measurements Not new but require new spatial and temporal resolution, or better coordination IGCO 2004

10. Instrument Coverage Weight-func Hrl Res CO CH 4 CO 2 Precision TOVS trop monthly upper-trop 15 degs no no yes — SCIAMACHY global column30×60 km yes yes yes 3-5ppm AIRS glob daily mid-trop 50 km yes yes yes 2ppm IASI glob daily mid-trop 50 km yes yes yes 2ppm CRIS glob daily mid-trop 50 km yes yes yes 2ppm OCO sunlit column 3-10 km 2 no no yes 1–2ppm GOSAT sunlit column 100-1000 Km — yes yes 3–4ppm ACCLAIM glob weekly lower trop 100m no no yes 1ppm A-SCOPE glob weekly lower trop 100m no no yes 1ppm CO 2 from Space: Instruments Peter Rayner 2005 (unpublished)

11. The Orbiting Carbon Observatory (OCO) Resolve pole to pole X CO2 gradients on regional scales Resolve the X CO2 seasonal cycle Improve constraints on CO 2 fluxes (sources and sinks) compared to the current knowledge: –Reduce regional scale flux uncertainties from >2000 gC m -2 yr -1 to < 200 gC m -2 yr -1 –Reduce continental scale flux uncertainties below 30 gC m -2 yr -1 David Chris 2005 Near Infrared Passive Sensor Launch – Sept. 2008

12. OCO Path: 1-day Unselected

13. OCO Path: Clouds Selected

14. OCO Path: 3-day Unselected

15. Uncertainy Reduction from Different Data Sources Houweling et al. 2005 CO 2 Inversions 2 weekly Data

16. 4. Priorities for in situ observations Atmospheric CO 2 and Carbon Cycle Tracer Observations. Eddy Covariance fluxes of CO 2, H 2 O and Energy. Large scale biomass inventories. Large scale soil carbon inventories. Ocean carbonates. IGCO 2004

17. Priority Pools and Processes Permafrost HL Peatlands T Peatlands Veg.-Fire/LUC CH 4 Hydrates Biological Pump Solubility Pump Carbon-Climate Feedbacks Hot Spots Oceans Land GCP 2005

18. Priority Pools and Processes Permafrost HL Peatlands T Peatlands Veg.-Fire/LUC CH 4 Hydrates Biological Pump Solubility Pump Carbon-Climate Feedbacks Hot Spots Oceans Land GCP 2005

19. Coupled Climate-Carbon Difference Coupled-Uncoupled Atmospheric CO 2 (ppm) Carbon-Climate Feedbacks Friedlingstein et al. 2006 10 GCMs with coupled carbon cycle 220 ppm NO processes on thawing frozen carbon NO processes on drained peatlands NO specific fire processes NO processes accounting for nutrient limitation (N, P)

20. Core space based observation  Land-cover change  Disturbances (e.g., fire counts and burned areas)  Leaf Area Index and related biophysical processes  Ocean color (which relates to biological activity) In situ observation related to processes Soil characteristics Water vapor and energy eddy covariance fluxes Phenology of the terrestrial biosphere Nutrient distributions and fluxes (ocean and land) Species composition of ecosystems Atmospheric tracers (O 2 :N 2 ; 13 C-CO 2 ; CO ; aerosols). 5. Attributing Major Processes to Fluxes

21. Carbon Emissions from Fires C Flux Anomalies (gC/m 2 /yr) El Nino 1997-98 Fire C Emissions Anomaly (gC/m 2 /yr) El Nino 1997-98 1997-98 2.1 Pg C emissions from fires 66% of the CO 2 growth rate anomaly 1997-2001 3.53 Pg C emissions from fires Rodenbeck et al. 2003; Werf et al. 2004 Atmospheric Tracers: CO, CH 4 Remote Sensing: Fire Spots, Burned Area

22. (17) Transport Models (TransCom) More Data is not Enough 4 ppm Fundamental process understanding & model development

23. Global Terrestrial Carbon Uptake (6) Dynamic Global Vegetation Models 7 PgCyr -1 Cramer et al. 2001

24. Biospheric Carbon Uptake (Pg C yr -1 ) Land Uptake (Gt C/yr) Land C UptakeOcean C Uptake 10 GCMs with coupled carbon cycle Friedlingstein et al. 2006 15 Pg 7 Pg

25. 1.CO 2 fertilization 2.Nitrogen fertilization 3.Warming and preciptation change 4.Regrowth in abandoned croplands 5.Fire suppression (woody encroach.) 6.Regrowth in previously disturbed forests –Logging, fire, wind, insects 7.Decreased deforestation 8.Improved agriculture 9.Sediment burial 10.Carbon Management (reforestation) Candidate Mechanisms of Current Terrestrial Sinks Driven by Atmospheric & Climate change Driven by Land Use Change Canadell et al. 2006

26. The Terrestrial Carbon Sink… … will increase in the future if the important mechanisms are physiological (eg, CO 2 Fertilization) …will decrease in the future if the important mechanism are due to the legacy of past land use (eg, regrowth, thickening..) Climate warms as predicted Climate warms more rapidly than predicted Attribution of the terrestrial carbon sink Sink strength

27. Terrestrial Carbon Observations Approach RS [CO 2 ] RS Measurements [CO 2 ] Measuremts Biomass/NPP and soil inventories Regional campaigns Field experiments Disturbances Eddy Covariance fluxes Plot studies and experiments Region Landscape 1 km 2 1 ha Continent Biome Scale Modified from GTOS, Cihlar et al. 2001 Process studies Pools and Fluxes

28. End