1. Carbon Theme Report and Implementation 23 April 2004 23 April 2004 Tokyo, Japan Berrien Moore III Institute for the Study of Earth, Oceans, and Space University of New Hampshire Carbon Theme Report and Implementation IGOS-P Side Event at GEO4 in Tokyo

2. Carbon Theme Report and Implementation 23 April 2004 Thank you, David Keeling Mauna Loa Monthly Carbon Dioxide Record: Keeling Record 1958 - 2000 19931999 Year Carbon Dioxide (ppmv)

3. Carbon Theme Report and Implementation 23 April 2004 Gt. C per year SOI Source: R. Francey (CSIRO) 1955196019651970197519851980199019952000 8 6 4 2 30 0 -30 CO 2 Annual Growth Rate Year

4. Carbon Theme Report and Implementation 23 April 2004 Global C Budget (PgC/y) 1980s1990s Atm. Increase 3.3+/-0.13.2+/-0.1 Emissions 5.4+/-0.36.3+/-0.4 Ocean-Atm. Flux -1.9+/-0.6-1.7+/-0.5 Land-Atm. Flux *-0.2+/-0.7-1.4+/-0.7 * partitioned as follows Land Use 1.7(0.6-2.5)NA Residual Terrestrial Sink -1.9(-3.8-0.3)NA Source: IPCC, 2001

5. Carbon Theme Report and Implementation 23 April 2004 CO 2 Concentration in Ice Cores and Atmospheric CO 2 Projection for Next 100 Years (BP 1950) Projected (2100) Current (2001) CO 2 Concentration (ppmv) Vostok Record Law Dome Record Mauna Loa Record IPCC IS92a Scenario Source: C. D. Keeling and T. P. Whorf; Etheridge et.al.; Barnola et.al.; IPCC

6. Carbon Theme Report and Implementation 23 April 2004 Global Carbon Sources and Sinks The Challenge

7. Carbon Theme Report and Implementation 23 April 2004 The objectives of a coordinated system of integrated global carbon observations To provide the long-term observations required to improve understanding of the present state and future behaviour of the global carbon cycle, particularly the factors that control the global atmospheric CO 2 level. To monitor and assess the effectiveness of carbon sequestration and/or emission reduction activities on global atmospheric CO 2 levels, including attribution of sources and sinks by region and sector.

8. Carbon Theme Report and Implementation 23 April 2004 Fluxes Observations to enable quantification of the distribution and variability of CO 2 fluxes between the Earth's surface and the atmosphere Pools Observations focused upon changes in the atmospheric, oceanic and terrestrial carbon pools Processes Observations related to important carbon cycle processes. Most of these will remain in the research domain, to be coordinated within the framework of the International Global Carbon Project (GCP) The coordinated system of global carbon observations should be built around complementary core groups of observations to address three themes: fluxes, pools, and processes

9. Carbon Theme Report and Implementation 23 April 2004 Source: JGOFS / IGBP CO 2 Preindustrial CO 2 : maximum strength bio pump: 160 ppm Preindustrial CO 2 : Physical pump alone: 400 ppm Oceanic Primary Production: Sept. 97 – Aug. 98 CO 2 Biological PumpPhysical (solubility) Pump

10. Carbon Theme Report and Implementation 23 April 2004 R/V Roger Revelle

11. Carbon Theme Report and Implementation 23 April 2004 Multi-tiered System 620 ARGO Floats, as of January 2003

12. Carbon Theme Report and Implementation 23 April 2004 MODIS Ocean Chlorophyll

13. Carbon Theme Report and Implementation 23 April 2004 Bottom-up estimates of the surface ocean fluxes using process based biogeochemical models and/or in situ measurements Ocean Colour 60% global, over a 3-5 day timeframe Ancillary Oceanic Data at Global Resolution Ocean circulation and air-sea transfer (altimetry, SST, SSS, surface winds …)

14. Carbon Theme Report and Implementation 23 April 2004 C h a l l e n g e s o f a C h a n g i n g E a r t h J u l y 2 0 0 1 CO 2 GPP Plant respiration Plant respiration Soil and litter respiration Soil and litter respiration Disturbance Short- term carbon uptake NPP 60 Gt/yr Medium- term carbon storage NEP 10 Gt/yr Long-term carbon storage NBP 1-2 Gt/yr Terrestrial Ecosystem Carbon Uptake and Storage Source: GCTE / IGBP

15. Carbon Theme Report and Implementation 23 April 2004 Forest Inventory and Analysis Information System

16. Carbon Theme Report and Implementation 23 April 2004 AmeriFlux, EuroFlux … and taller towers

17. Carbon Theme Report and Implementation 23 April 2004 SPOT 5 image of Iguacu, Brazil - September 2002

18. Carbon Theme Report and Implementation 23 April 2004 Land-cover Change Resolution of 100 m at intervals of 5 years - to estimate the fluxes of carbon associated with forest clearing and reversion of agricultural lands to natural ecosystems Ecosystem Disturbances Fire distribution / hotspots at sub-daily resolution, burned areas at monthly resolution, and other disturbances (insects, harvest, windstorms) at intervals of 1 year Vegetation State and Activity Directional reflectance with global coverage over weekly timeframe. Spatial resolution of 1 km or better. Possibly hyper-spectral information. Focus includes leaf area index, vegetation architecture and profile, albedo, F-PAR and related vegetation biophysical properties, ecosystem condition, and gross and net primary productivity Ancillary Terrestrial Data at Global Resolution Climate and weather data, soil moisture content, and radiation diffuse and direct components Bottom-up estimates of the surface terrestrial fluxes using process based biogeochemical models and/or in situ measurements

19. Carbon Theme Report and Implementation 23 April 2004 Global Carbon Sources and Sinks The Challenge

20. Carbon Theme Report and Implementation 23 April 2004 Top-down estimates of the surface fluxes time varying distribution using atmospheric inverse models Column-integrated atmospheric CO 2 distribution to an accuracy of at least 1 ppm (0.3%) with synoptic global coverage, if possible all latitudes, all seasons - with ground-based quality control Attributing surface fluxes to combustion processes of biomass and fossil fuel via atmospheric CO and combustion aerosol distributions with synoptic global coverage equivalent to the one of CO 2 - with ground-based quality control Modelling the transport of atmospheric CO 2 atmospheric structure, temperature, humidity, winds…

21. Carbon Theme Report and Implementation 23 April 2004

22. Orbiting Carbon Observatory - JPL

23. Carbon Theme Report and Implementation 23 April 2004 An Active Carbon Dioxide Mission: CELSIUS

24. Carbon Theme Report and Implementation 23 April 2004 Implementation issues The main implementation issues highlighted for discussion by CEOS SIT-13: 1.The prospects for provision of the atmospheric measurements (notably column CO 2, CO and aerosols) required for top-down estimation of the surface fluxes using atmospheric inverse models. 2.The prospects for development of ground-based solar observatories for CO 2 to characterize the ultimate accuracy of the near IR absorption technique. Such a ground based column CO 2 network will also provide a unique control for any space-based CO 2 mission. 3.The prospect of an active mission that focuses upon the measurement of column CO 2 without diurnal, seasonal, latitudinal, or surface restrictions. This mission could be accomplished with the measurement technique based upon Laser Absorption Spectroscopy (LAS). Finally, an overarching issue is for space agencies to consider how to support the integration of the operational observations with process study results via model-data fusion to give a holistic picture of the dynamics of the carbon cycle.

25. Carbon Theme Report and Implementation 23 April 2004 A Global Carbon Cycle Data Assimilation System Terrestrial carbon model Terrestrial carbon model Atmospheric Transport model Atmospheric Transport model Climate and weather fields Ecological studies Ecological studies Biomass soil carbon inventories Remote sensing of Atmospheric CO2 Remote sensing of Vegetation properties Growth Cycle Fires Biomass Radiation Land cover /use Remote sensing of Vegetation properties Growth Cycle Fires Biomass Radiation Land cover /use Georeferenced emissions Georeferenced emissions inventories Atmospheric measurements Atmospheric measurements Eddy-covariance flux towers Data assimilation link Ocean carbon model Ocean carbon model Ocean remote sensing Ocean colour Altimetry Winds SST SSS Ocean remote sensing Ocean colour Altimetry Winds SST SSS Ocean time series Biogeochemical pCO2 Surface observation pCO2 nutrients Water column inventories rivers Lateral fluxes Coastal studies optimized Fluxes optimized model parameters

26. Carbon Theme Report and Implementation 23 April 2004 A Hierarchy of Approaches and Scales Approach Scale The source and sinks and controlling processes will only be determined within an integrated approach where point-wise in situ surface measurements can be scaled up using global satellite datasets and models, and then constrained and verified by atmospheric CO 2 concentration measurements. The Carbon System