1. Public Safety, Public Spending: F orecasting America’s Prison Population, 2007-2011 Adam Gelb, Project Director Public Safety Performance Project The Pew Charitable Trusts, Pew Center on the States October 2, 2007

2. Where We’ve Been

3. Where We’ve Been – Costs Source: Bureau of Justice Statistics

4. Where Are We Going? Report Objectives To estimate the future size and cost of state and federal prison systems To examine the reasons for projected growth To highlight state efforts to control corrections spending To outline the challenges ahead for state policy makers

5. Projection Formula 2011 State Prison Population = [2006 population x 0.453957294846] µ 2005 UCR ± 29384823 ÷ Census projection of 16-24 year-olds x.267 –.364SES¥ - [1/HS graduation rate x.8003] JUST KIDDING! – We called the states

6. What We Found – National

7. National

9. Estimating Future Prison Costs Operating Costs: National average in 2005 dollars - $23,876 per inmate Capital Costs: Midpoint estimate $65,000 per bed

10. What We Found – Costs New Prison Spending, 2007-2011

11. Regions

12. State Highlights

13. 10 Lowest-Growth States Delaware0% New York0% Connecticut0% Maryland1% Louisiana4% Wisconsin5% Tennessee5% Missouri6% Massachusetts6% Rhode Island7%

14. Key Drivers and Trends Population growth, esp. in West Growing admissions (1980-1992) Longer length of stay (1992- ) Probation and parole violators (60% of growth) Women (57%) growing faster than men (34%) Rising age (up from 31 to 34) Methamphetamine cases Mental health cases Workforce recruitment and retention Sex-offender laws will be felt in out-years

15. Tremendous State Variation

16. Admissions x Length of Stay = Prison Population Admissions, Length of Stay Determined Largely by Policy Choices State Policy Choices = State Prison Population / Costs

17. CT –Targeted Reform Problem Identified technical violators as driver Solution Set goal of reducing TVs by 20% Hired 96 new POs Started 2 new supervision/service programs Public awareness campaign Result Highest growth to flat Crime drop parallel to national reduction

18. NC – Broad System Reform Problem Lack of truth, violent offenders serving short terms Solution Build prisons for violent/chronic offenders Abolish discretionary parole release Establish comprehensive guidelines Create state/local partnership for low risk Result One of highest incarc. rates to middle of the pack Crime fell in sync with national drop Estimated $2 billion in savings over past 12 years

19. Exciting Time in Criminal Justice Advances in science of behavior change Cognitive-Behavioral Treatment Motivational Interviewing Contingency Management Advances in supervision technology Accurate, on site, rapid-result drug screens GPS monitoring Broad public support for alternatives Trend toward Managing for Results Budget pressure Bipartisan reform efforts across the nation

20. Implications Central Question is Being Reframed OLD “How can we demonstrate that we’re tough on crime?” NEW “How can we deliver taxpayers the best return on their investment?”

21. Public Safety, Public Spending: F orecasting America’s Prison Population, 2007-2011 Adam Gelb, Project Director Public Safety Performance Project The Pew Charitable Trusts, Pew Center on the States October 2, 2007