1. ESPON CLIMATE - Climate Change and Territorial Effects on Regions and Local Economies Stefan Greiving (TU Dortmund) ESPON Climate

2. Objectives and methodological framework Territorial development is regarded to be responsible for and capable of reducing regional vulnerability to climate change and developing climate mitigation and adaptation capacities. There is a need for a step forward towards a clear territorial response to climate change. Territorially differentiated adaptation strategies call for an evidence basis. This is what the ESPON Climate project is about: a pan-European vulnerability assessment as a basis for identifying regional typologies of climate change exposure, sensitivity, impact and vulnerability. On this basis, tailor-made adaptation options can be derived which are able to cope with regionally specific patterns of climate change.

3. Climate change regions and case studies Typology of similar climate change patterns and not a typology of the present climate. The seven case studies of the ESPON Climate project serve to cross-check and deepen the findings of the pan-European assessment of the other research actions. The studies cross-check the indicators and findings of the European-wide analysis with the results of the case study areas, but also explore the diversity of response approaches to climate change. Thus, they focus on aspects not covered in the European-wide analysis, such as understanding the cultural and institutional factors influencing climate change effects.

4. According to the IPCC, sensitivity is defined as “the degree to which a system is affected, either adversely or beneficially, by climate-related stimuli.” (IPCC 2007) Economic sensitivity includes agriculture and forestry, tourism and the energy sector. Particularly those local economies are sensitive which are dependent on tourism, agriculture and forestry: the Mediterranean region, the Alps, large parts of Eastern Europe, but also Scandinavia (energy demand for heating!) Europe’s regions and their different sensitivities to climatic changes

5. The IPCC defines impact as “[c]onsequences of climate change on natural and human systems.” (IPCC 2007) Hot spots are mostly in the South of Europe – i.e. the big agglomerations and summer tourist resorts at the coastline. Other specific types of regions (e.g. mountains) are particularly impacted, but partly for other reasons (sea level rise, economic dependency on summer and/or winter tourism). Europe’s regions and their impact to climatic change

6. Adaptive capacity: dimensions and indicators Adaptive capacity is defined as “the ability or potential of a system to respond successfully to climate variability and changes“ (IPCC 2007c). Awareness plays an role in identifying vulnerabilities and enable the identification of adaptation measures. For moving from awareness to action, ability is necessary, which consists of technology and infrastructure. Action is supported by economic resources and institutions that enable a society to carry out the adaptation measures that have been defined.

7. Vulnerability of European regions to climate change “Vulnerability is a function of the character, magnitude, and rate of climate variation to which a system is exposed, its sensitivity, and its adaptive capacity” (IPCC 2007). Particularly those countries which may expect a high increase in impact seem to be less able to adapt than others for which the problem is less visible. This scenario for the future runs counter to territorial cohesion. Climate change would trigger a deepening of the existing socio- economic imbalances between the core of Europe and its periphery.

8. Political implications Particularly the East of Europe is also affected by demographic changes, which may lead to an additional increase in sensitivity and therefore impact. At the same time these demographic changes would also decrease eastern Europe’s adaptive capacity. Territorially differentiated adaptation strategies seem to be important primarily for tourist resorts in the Mediterranean region, but also in the Alps, because both types of regions are identified as particularly vulnerable. Agglomerations – mainly in the South - have to be mentioned. They are vulnerable for several reasons, of which urban heat might be the most relevant one. Adapting the existing settlement patterns can be seen as the main challenge for spatial planning operating in the context of existing private property rights. Incentives and more inclusive discourse-based approaches are needed, which can be characterised as ‘climate governance’.