1. Adaptation of Gambian Agriculture to Climate Change: Novel or re-discovered strategies Prepared by the AF47 team Momodou Njie, Molly Hellmuth, Peter Droogers, Bubu Jallow, John Mac Callaway, Bernard Gomez and presented at the Second AIACC Regional Workshop for Africa and Indian Ocean Islands 24 – 27 March 2004 Hotel Ngor Diarama, Dakar, Senegal

2. Relevance

3. Approach Literature review Collection of physical and socio-economic data Qualitative assessment of coping/adaptation strategies Crop modelling Benefit-cost and economic analyses

4. Some GCM results Yundum HadCM3_A2 Yundum ECHAM4_A2

5. More GCM results Yundum HadCM3_A2 Yundum ECHAM4_A2

6. Qualitative Assessment of Traditional Coping/Strategies StrategyConstraint(s)/Uncertainties 1Crop diversification and selection50% decrease in mean rainfall 50% increase in standard deviation (HadCM3_A2) 2Plot dispersal50% decline in per capita availability of prime land (< 5ha/dabada by 2025) 3Sale of assets (raising cash)40 – 50 % of dabadas possess livestock 4Relieffood aid trends, social support networks 5Shift in main food sources

7. Adaptation Strategies identified in The Gambia’s INC StrategyRemarks 1Introduction of new cropsA re-statement of crop selection 2Extensification of most hardy crops 3Development of irrigated agriculture Fundamental changes to traditional production systems 4Shifting planting dates 5Reduction of post-harvest losses

8. Adaptation Strategies investigated by A47 StrategyRationale 1Introduction of new cropsExpected decline in rainfall, and increased variability 2Soil fertilisationExpected decrease in prime land availability, degradation of arable land (assume 2% per decade), and availability of land which require some amendments (14%, second largest class of agriculturally suitable land) 3IrrigationExpected changes in rainfall patterns, and increased variability, possibility of extending growing season and expanding cultivated area,water availability (ground and surface water)

9. Analytical Framework Land & Water Resources Crop Model Crop Production Benefits and Costs Socioeconomic Scenarios RegCM/Downscaling Adaptation Options Social/Political acceptability Climate Scenarios (SRES)

10. Crop Modelling SWAP-WOFOST

11. Crop Modelling Results Distant Future (2070 – 2099)

12. Macroeconomic Analyses (1) Base CaseCC No AdaptationCC + Irrigation Frequency of crisis years 4/3030/3025/30 Food Aid & Commercial Imports $60,623,069$4,158,558,131$357,015,844 Stock-to-utilisation ratio = 20% Base CaseCC No AdaptationCC + Irrigation Frequency of crisis years 3/3030/3021/30 Food Aid & Commercial Imports $24,477,446$3,965,637,162$188,394,342 Stock-to-utilisation ratio = 0%

13. Macroeconomic Analyses (2) STU ratio = 0 %STU ratio = 20 %Remarks CC damages$3,941,159,716$4,097,935,062Food Aid/Import Bill with CC and no adaptation vis-à-vis Base Case Project benefits$3,777,242,820$3,801,542,287Food Aid/Import Bill with CC and Irrigation vis-à-vis CC and No Adaptation Net project benefits $3,739,616,047$3,763,915,514Project benefits less project costs Imposed CC damages $201,543,669$334,019,546Climate change damages less net project benefits

14. Microeconomic Analyses 1m 3 = $0.12 1m 3 = $0.31 1m 3 = $0.05 Yield response for different WUEs

15. Work to be done Evaluate benefits of conjunctive use of surface and groundwater Develop future socio-economic scenarios Detailed/refined economic analyses

16. THANKS FOR YOUR KIND ATTENTION