1. Robust Strategies for Sustainable Energy Supply Klaus S. Lackner Columbia University November 2005

2. The Central Role of Energy MineralsWater Food Environment EnergyLand

3. Not about limiting access to energy low cost, plentiful, and clean energy for all

4. Norway USA France UK Brazil Russia India China $0.38/kWh (primary) Energy, Wealth, Economic Growth EIA Data 2002

5. Big Uncertainty Robust strategies for uncertain development paths Scope of world-wide industrialization Will oil and gas run out? – Coal as backstop Will nuclear energy play a role? – More electricity Will solar energy get cheap? – Hydrogen, electricity Will energy efficiency play out? – Potential surprise Decentralization vs. Concentration – Greenhouse gases The role of the smaller sources?

6. IPCC Model Simulations of CO 2 Emissions

7. Constant growth With population growth Closing the gap 1% energy intensity reduction 1.5% energy intensity reduction 2.0% energy intensity reduction

8. Today’s Energy Infrastructure All fossil energy plus a little hydro and nuclear energy plus a very little renewable energy

9. Energy is not running out Plenty of fossil carbon Plenty of nuclear energy Plenty of solar energy Other options are niche player

10. Resource Estimates H.H. Rogner, 1997

11. Carbon as Low Cost Energy Rogner 1997 Lifting Cost

12. Fossil Fuels 5000 Gigatons of cheap fuel Ubiquitous, current consumption is 6Gt/yr 85% of all commercial energy Coal, oil, gas, tar etc. are fungible SASOL: gasoline from coal at $45/bbl Tarsands: Synthetic crude at less $20/bbl

13. Fungibility of Sources All hydrocarbons are interchangeable Gasification, Fischer Tropsch Reactions Electricity can make all carriers But at a price – need cheap electricity Heat can be turned into electricity Low efficiency – but routinely done Electricity can pump heat Efficient – but needs cheap electricity Prediction is difficult

14. Fossil Fuels Energy in 2100 need not be more expensive than today Environment Rather Than Resource Limit Carbon Capture and Storage - Untested Technology

15. 0 Gt 8,000 Gt 7,000 Gt 6,000 Gt 5,000 Gt 4,000 Gt 3,000 Gt 2,000 Gt 1,000 Gt 21st Century’s Emissions ??? Atmo- sphere 2000 Ocean Plants Coal Oil, Gas, Tars & Shales Methane Hydrates             pH < 0.3 39,000 Gt 20th Century 50,000 Gt ??? Soil & Detritus 1800 constant 22 33 44 Scales of Potential Carbon Sinks Carbon Resources Carbon Sources and Sinks

16. The Mismatch in Carbon Sources and Sinks 44 33 11 22 55 1800 - 2000 Fossil Carbon Consumption to date 180ppm increase in the air 30% of the Ocean acidified 30% increase in Soil Carbon 50% increase in biomass

17. CO 2 emissions need to stop Large Reductions Required Independent of CO 2 level at stabilization Time urgency is high up to ~800ppm At 2 GtC per year, the per capita allowance of 10 billion people will be 3% of actual per capita emission in the United States

18. NON-SOLUTIONS Energy efficiency improvements Energy reductions Growing Trees Hydrogen 10 billion people reducing world emission to a third of today’s would have a per capita emission allowance of 3% of that in the US today

19. Today’s Technology Fails To Deliver Sufficient Energy … … for 10 billion at US per capita rates Environmental Problems Pollution, CO 2 Oil and Gas Shortages Concentration in the Middle East How much time do we have to make the change?

20. The hydrogen economy cannot run on electricity There are no hydrogen wells Tar, coal, shale and biomass could support a hydrogen economy. Wind, photovoltaics and nuclear energy cannot.

21. A Triad of Large Scale Options backed by a multitude of opportunities Solar Cost reduction and mass-manufacture Nuclear Cost, waste, safety and security Fossil Energy Zero emission, carbon storage and interconvertibility Markets will drive efficiency, conservation and alternative energy

22. Refining Carbon Bio Gasoline Diesel Coal Shale Connecting Sources to Carriers Carriers to Consumers Tar Oil Natural Gas Jet Fuel Heat Electricity Ethanol Methanol DME Hydrogen Synthesis Gas Nuclear Wind, Hydro Geo Solar Chemicals

23. Dividing The Fossil Carbon Pie 900 Gt C total 550 ppm Past 10yr

24. Removing the Carbon Constraint 5000 Gt C total Past

25. Net Zero Carbon Economy CO 2 extraction from air Permanent & safe disposal CO 2 from concentrated sources electricity or hydrogen Geological Storage Mineral carbonate disposal Capture of distributed emissions

26. Underground Injection statoil Enhanced Oil Recovery Deep Coal Bed Methane Saline Aquifers Storage Time Safety Cost VOLUME

27. Rockville Quarry Mg 3 Si 2 O 5 (OH) 4 + 3CO 2 (g)  3MgCO 3 + 2SiO 2 +2H 2 O(l) +63kJ/mol CO 2 Backstop & Lid on Liability

28. Magnesium resources that far exceed world fossil fuel supplies

29. Capture at the plant Flue Gas Scrubbing (Amine Scrubbers) Oxygen Blown Combustion Integrated Gasifier Combined Cycle with Carbon Capture Zero Emission Plants Expand into steel making, cement production, boilers

30. CO 2 N 2 H 2 O SO x, NO x and other Pollutants Carbon Air Zero Emission Principle Solid Waste Power Plant

31. C + O 2  CO 2 no change in mole volume entropy stays constant  G =  H 2H 2 + O 2  2H 2 O large reduction in mole volume entropy decreases in reactants made up by heat transfer to surroundings  G <  H Carbon makes a better fuel cell

32. Heat The Conventional Power Plant Heat Electric Power Carbon Fuel Turbine Enthalpy Free Energy Carnot Limited

33. The Standard Fuel Cell Heat Electric Power Chemical Conversion with small Heat loss No heat return Carbon Fuel Enthalpy Free Energy Enthalpy Limited

34. Heat Return The Zero Emission Fuel Cell Heat Electric Power Minimize Free Energy Loss Raise Enthalpy (endothermic gasification) Carbon Fuel Fuel Cell Conversion Enthalpy Free Energy Free energy limited

35. Gasification Cycles C + CO 2  2CO C + H 2 O  CO + H 2 C + 2H 2  CH 4 (CH 4 + 2H 2 O  CO 2 + 4H 2 ) C + O 2  CO 2

36. Boudouard Reaction

37. Steam Reforming

38. Boudouard Reaction

39. Hydrogenation

41. Decarbonizing Energy Fuels Hydrogen Economy Heating and transportation Extraction of CO 2 from Air Biomass Chemical Extraction

42. Air Extraction can compensate for CO 2 emissions anywhere Art Courtesy Stonehaven CCS, Montreal 2NaOH + CO 2  Na 2 CO 3

43. Wind area that carries 22 tons of CO 2 per year Wind area that carries 10 kW 0.2 m 2 for CO 2 80 m 2 for Wind Energy How much wind? (6m/sec) 50 cents/ton of CO 2 for contacting

44. EnviroMission’s Tower

45. Process Reactions Capture Device Trona Process Limestone Precipitate Dryer Fluidized Bed Hydroxylation Reactor Membrane Device (1) (2) (3) (6) (5) (4) Membrane (1) 2NaOH + CO 2  Na 2 CO 3 + H 2 O  H o = - 171.8 kJ/mol (2) Na 2 CO 3 + Ca(OH) 2  2NaOH + CaCO 3  H o = 57.1 kJ/mol (3) CaCO 3  CaO + CO 2  H o = 179.2 kJ/mol (4) CaO + H 2 O  Ca(OH) 2  H o = - 64.5 kJ/mol (6) H 2 O (l)  H 2 O (g)  H o = 41. kJ/mol (5) CH 4 + 2O 2  CO 2 + 2H 2 O  H o = -890.5 kJ/mol Source: Frank Zeman CO 2 Air Depleted Air

46. Hydrogen or Air Extraction Coal,Gas Fossil Fuel Oil HydrogenGasoline Consumption Distribution CO 2 TransportAir Extraction CO 2 Disposal

47. Hydrogen or Air Extraction Coal,Gas Fossil Fuel Oil HydrogenGasoline Consumption Distribution CO 2 TransportAir Extraction CO 2 Disposal Cost comparisons

48. Energy Source Energy Consumer H2OH2O H2OH2O O2O2 O2O2 H2H2 CO 2 H2H2 CH 2 Materially Closed Energy Cycles

49. Roles of Different Energy Carriers Electricity Carbon Fuels Hydrogen Cars planes heating

50. Private Sector Carbon Extraction Carbon Sequestration Farming, Manufacturing, Service, etc. Certified Carbon Accounting certificates certification Public Institutions and Government Carbon Board guidance Permits & Credits