1. The GAIA Hypothesis and it‘s role in Earth System Modelling GCM – 1. Semester: Physical Fundamentals of GC, Juliane Gnau Quelle: Wikipedia The release of this image had an effect in leading to the proposition that the Earth is alive.

2. The GAIA Hypothesis and it‘s role in Earth System Modelling Earth System Science Earth System Modelling The GAIA Hypothesis Recent research “Official proof of acceptance” Content

3. Earth System Science … treats the entire Earth as a system this system evolves as a result of positive and negative feedbacks between many different systems gives scientists the ability to explain the past and possible future behaviour of the Earth system ms: See the comlete version of the so-called Bretherton Diagram (Francis P. Bretherton, 1986)the comlete version of the so-called Bretherton Diagram ms: See the comlete version of the so-called Bretherton Diagram (Francis P. Bretherton, 1986)the comlete version of the so-called Bretherton Diagram

4. What is Earth System Modelling? Interacting components on the environment are modeled in unison to understand how feedbacks between the components influence the properties of the whole system. Quelle: Max-Planck-Institut Gaia theories explain the behaviour of the Earth system in terms of the influence of the biosphere

5. Development of Earth System Modelling Quelle: Max-Planck-Institut, verändert ms: That is only half the truth. It shows only the natural systems approach to climate modelling. The whole Earth System Modelling would comprise the socio-economic modelling as well, like: world economic system, national and international institutions and actors, …. ms: That is only half the truth. It shows only the natural systems approach to climate modelling. The whole Earth System Modelling would comprise the socio-economic modelling as well, like: world economic system, national and international institutions and actors, ….

6. Goals of Earth System Modelling to predict the future of the planet Earth instrument to take appropriate actions in the future within the framework of future management of the Earth

7. The GAIA Hypothesis a complex entity involving the Earth's biosphere, atmosphere, oceans, and soil; the totality constituting a feedback or cybernetic system which seeks an optimal physical and chemical environment for life on this planet James Lovelock‘s definition:

8. The Initial Hypothesis biomass modifies conditions on planet hospitality = homeostasis homeostatic feedback system  operated by the biota  leads to stabilization of global temperature and chemical composition Global control system: surface temperature atmospheric composition ocean salinity

9. The Development of the Hypothesis 1960: Ecological theory: the Earth as an organism Core assumption of hypothesis: „Lives of a cell“ Scientifically formulated by J. Lovelock Supported by scientific experiments + providing useful predictions  Theory 1972: "Gaia as seen through the atmosphere" Until 1975 almost totally ignored 1979: book “Gaia: A new look at life on Earth”

10. The Development of the Hypothesis Acception took many years 1980’s: still confusion what the GAIA theory really is Criticism: 1.view is too theological 2.lack of scientific evidence 3.GAIA is not a living organism History

11. response to criticism = math. Daisyworld  proof for existance of feedback mechanisms Lovelock‘s reframing as geophysiology growing acceptance of Earth System Science  silenced many critics History The Development of the Hypothesis

12. Gaia Theory has developed considerably 1998 book: “The Symbiotic Planet”(L. Margulis)  "Gaia is not an organism", but "an emergent property of interaction among organisms". New definition: “…the series of interacting ecosystems that compose a single huge ecosystem at the Earth's surface.“ both theories are valid today Recent developments

13. The GAIA Hypothesis two GAIA Conferences 1. 1988: the Gaian teological views or "types" of Gaia Theory 2. 2000: specific mechanisms: Recent developments has Gaia changed in time? how can the feedbacks influence the climate? how can mechanisms be modeled?

14. The GAIA Hypothesis - Summary the Gaia hypothesis is modified biosphere = ecosystem the Gaia hypothesis is consistent with a modern vision of global ecology, relaying on the concepts of biosphere and biodiversity not a theory anymore (?) part of Earth System Science scientific model in geo-biosphere non-scientists: self-regulating Earth Today ms: In common usage, people often use the word theory to signify a conjecture, an opinion, or a speculation. In science however, a theory is a proposed description, explanation, or model of the manner of interaction of a set of natural phenomena, capable of predicting future occurrences or observations!

15. The GAIA Hypothesis modelling real biochemical cycles of Earth  Daisyworld-like regulation today: simple feedback mechanisms accepted  carbon dioxide more difficult homeostatic mechanisms ?  planetary albedo More recent research

16. “Official proof of acceptance“ Amsterdam declaration of the scientific communities of 4 international global change research programmes: threat of significant climate change increasing human modification of global environment  findings and statements seem to be fully consistent with the Gaia theory More recent research The Earth System behaves as a single, self-regulating system comprised of physical, chemical, biological and human components.

17. More recent research “Global change cannot be understood in terms of a simple cause-effect paradigm. Human-driven changes cause multiple effects that cascade through the Earth System in complex ways.” “The interactions and feedbacks between the component parts are complex and exhibit multi-scale temporal and spatial variability.” “These effects interact with each other and with local- and regional-scale changes in multidimensional patterns that are difficult to understand and even more difficult to predict.” “Official proof of acceptance“

18. The GAIA Hypothesis and it‘s role in Earth System Modelling Thank you for listening Sources: Wikipedia Max-Planck-Institut http://serc.carleton.edu/introgeo/earthsystem/nutshell/index.html ms: Richard Mabey reviews The revenge of Gaia by James Lovelock:Richard Mabey reviews The revenge of Gaia by James Lovelock “After Hurricane Katrina, a black Gaian joke went the rounds, couched in White House newspeak: Successful mission against the Gulf of Mexico oilfields. Some collateral damage in New Orleans.” ms: Richard Mabey reviews The revenge of Gaia by James Lovelock:Richard Mabey reviews The revenge of Gaia by James Lovelock “After Hurricane Katrina, a black Gaian joke went the rounds, couched in White House newspeak: Successful mission against the Gulf of Mexico oilfields. Some collateral damage in New Orleans.”

19. Comments for Juliane Gnau from Manfred Stock 1.To be finished.....