1. Project Overview Maia A. Davis Metropolitan Washington Council of Governments (COG) 8 th Mid-Atlantic Regional Planning Roundtable March 30, 2012 1

2. 2  Comprised of elected officials from 22 local governments, members of the Maryland and Virginia state legislatures, and members of the U.S. Congress  Main policy committees:  COG Board of Directors  National Capital Region Transportation Planning Board  Metropolitan Washington Air Quality Committee  Climate, Energy and Environment Policy Committee  Region Forward Coalition

3.  COG Board created Climate Change Steering Committee (2007)  National Capital Region Climate Change Report (11/08)  COG Board created CEEPC - Climate, Energy and Environment Policy Committee (2009)  2010-2012 Regional Climate and Energy Workplan (1/10)  Region Forward Compact adopted (2010)  Foundation for COG’s efforts to build a sustainable metropolitan Washington region  Draws climate related goals from Climate Change Report 3

4.  EPA initiated the SGIA program in 2005 with three goals in mind:  Support communities interested in implementing smart growth policies;  Create regional examples that can catalyze similar projects in the area; and  Identify barriers, opportunities and tools  EPA provides the assistance through a contractor team – not a grant.  In 2010, COG applied to SGIA and was awarded technical assistance to support adaptation efforts  Contractor: SRA  End Product: EPA Climate Adaptation Guidebook 4

5.  Increase understanding of the implications of climate change among planners, policymakers and officials in the Washington region  Provide tools to implement smart growth principles to improve regional resilience to climate change impacts  Focus on four sectors: water, transportation, land use and buildings 5 Storm surge in the Potomac and Anacostia using the SLOSH (Sea, Lake and Overland Surges from Hurricanes) Model (Source: National Hurricane Center)

6. 6 TimeframeMilestones 10/10SGIA Award Announced 12/10Technical Expert Panel identified pertinent regional climate info. 1/12-3/12Educate COG Committees on adaptation and SGIA project 3/11NOAA lead Roadmap for Adapting to Climate Risks workshop to review tools for risk and vulnerability assessment 1/11-5/11George Mason students evaluate local govt adaptation knowledge 6/11-8/11SRA Consultants conduct local and national policy inventory 7/11-8/11COG conducts preliminary vulnerability assessment for four sectors 9/11EPA, COG and SRA held four sector stakeholder workshops to identify challenges and share experiences 10/11SRA delivers draft list of local approaches for guidebook 12/11-1/12Draft guidebook issued for stakeholder review 5/12Final Guidebook

7.  Over the last century the average temperature rose 3.3°F in DC, 1.9°F in MD, and 0.6°F in Virginia (NOAA).  The Potomac Estuary has experienced one foot of relative sea level rise (NCPC, 2008).  In the Mid-Atlantic major weather events increased 12-20% compared to the previous century (UMD, 2008).  Projections indicate that these trends will continue at an increased rate and lead to expanded riparian flood plains and coastal inundation zones and more frequent droughts, heat waves and record-setting events (IPCC, 2007; GCRP, 2009). 7 Streets flooded from the Potomac River in Old Town Alexandria, Virginia after Hurricane Isabel in 2003. (Source: REUTERS/Kevin Lamarque)

8. 8 Note: Reflect trends which have already been observed in recent past and are projected to continue with high confidence, except for drought frequency (medium) TemperaturePrecipitation VariabilitySevere StormsSea Level Rise Higher average temperatures More frequent heat waves and days over 90° F Fewer freezing days, and warmer nights relative to days Precipitation concentrated into fewer events Increased precipitation variability Possible increased frequency of drought Increase in intensity of coastal storms, such as hurricanes and nor'easters Sea level rise combined with local land subsidence and storm surges.

9.  Transportation: more frequent travel disruptions and increased damage from severe events, change in infrastructure maintenance needs, and increased deterioration from buckling and expansion due to extreme heat or freeze-and-thaw cycles.  Buildings: increased damage from weather-related events; increased demand for emergency response; health impacts from flooding, storms, extreme heat, and more poor air quality days; potential for water restrictions due to drought; increase in cooling costs and small decrease in heating costs; possible changes in the lifetime of roofs and other structural materials.  Land use: expansion of flood-prone areas, flood plains, and coastal inundation zones; increase damage to natural areas from invasive species, flooding and heat waves; increase in damage to or strain on infrastructure, including transportation, water, energy, and wastewater.  Water: potential increased amount and/or frequency of sanitary sewer overflows and combined sewer overflows; change in infrastructure maintenance needs; flood risks to infrastructure; changes in water table that could affect septic fields; need for flood control systems; increased demand on stormwater management systems; possible reduced water supplies due to drought. 9

10.  Plan for Climate Change  Tools for developing a risk/vulnerability assessment  Regional Approaches  Local Approaches  Protect vulnerable areas from development  Protect people and assets in vulnerable areas  Encourage sustainable growth in appropriate, less vulnerable areas 10 This map shows potential hot spot areas that could be inundated by projected sea level rise in the Mason Neck area of Virginia along the Potomac River. The area is currently primarily park and military lands. (Source: Northern Virginia Regional Commission)

11.  Recommendation: Incorporate survivability strategies into new and existing critical infrastructure such as police stations, fire stations, hospitals, schools, and emergency shelters  Survivability = ability of buildings to maintain habitability without relying on external utility systems for power, fuel, water, or sewer services, as well as being better able to withstand floods, severe weather events, and temperature extremes.  Implementation strategies may include: highly energy efficient building combined with daylighting and natural ventilation, on-site renewable energy 11 Langston High School/Langston-Brown Community Center in Arlington, VA incorporates passive solar, operable windows for ventilation in the event of power failures and large rainwater cisterns. (Source: USGBC)

12.  Provided an opportunity to educate a broad range of stakeholders on climate adaptation  Identified the need for additional information on climate change impacts in the region  Spurred sectors to continue adaptation conversation  Climate impacts symposium planned (5/21/12) 12 Identifying and discussing vulnerabilities in small groups at NOAA Roadmap for Adapting to Climate Risks Training on March 3, 2011 at COG.

13. Maia A. Davis 202-962-3227 mdavis@mwcog.org For additional project resources go to: 13