1. Transportation leadership you can trust. presented to presented by California Statewide Travel Demand Model California State Transportation Plan Policy Advisory Committee October 15, 2013 Doug MacIvor Ronald West

2. CSTDM Key Objectives 2 CTP 2040/ Interregional Travel/ Rural Analysis Needs/ Freight Mobility Plan/ Interregional Transportation Strategic Plan

3. SB 391 and SB 375 SB 391: Require the CTP to identify the statewide integrated multimodal transportation system needed to achieve a statewide reduction of greenhouse gas emissions to 1990 levels by 2020 and 80-percent below 1990 levels by 2050. SB 375: Interregional Forecasts SB 375: SCSs from MPOs 3

4. How Can Modeling Help Evaluate Strategies? 4 Transport. Levels of Service Mode Choice Trip Assignment Generate Daily Activities Where are you going to go? What are your options on how to get there? How did you decide to get there? How do things look when you add up everyone’s trips? Population Employment Calibrated Models Based on Survey Data Highway Network Transit Service Travel Times

5. What is the CSTDM? Multimodal model of weekday California resident travel, including trucks Base Year 2010 Multiple Horizon Years Comprised of five components 5 Personal Travel Models Short Distance Long Distance Truck Model Short Distance Long Distance External Travel Model Auto Drive Alone Car Pools Transit Bus Urban Rail Non-Motorized Walk Bicycle Other Air Rail Trucks 2015 2020 2035 2040 2050

6. CSTDM System Outputs 6 Trip lists Trip tables Loaded network Travel times and costs Summary travel statistics Maps Graphs

7. CSTDM Zones and Network 7 93,000 nodes 253,000 links Multi-modal 5454 internal zones (TAZ) 51 external zones

8. CSTDM Network Coverage Area - Berkeley 8

9. Transit Travel Times 9 To San Francisco International Airport To Los Angeles International Airport

10. Development of Year 2010 Population Database 10 TAZs Aggregate Census Block Data Census Population and Household Totals Added More Data on Group Quarters Census Zones Aggregate Census Tracts ACS Household Characteristics Run Population Synthesizer Contains Information on Every Synthetic Household in California, including: Household Size Persons by Age Employment Income Housing Type

11. Development of Year 2010 Employment Data 11 Industry Agriculture/Mining Construction Manufacturing Wholesale Transportation/Utilities Retail Information Finance/Insurance/Real Estate Professional/Management/Administration Education/Health Arts/Entertainment/Recreation/ Accommodation/Food Service Other Service Government Occupation Management/Business Professional/Technical Education Health Service Sales, Food, and Entertainment Clerical Blue Collar

12. Future Year Forecasts Socio-Economic Forecasts » MPO data used directly » RTPAs – Combination of: UC Davis forecasts Dept of Finance Moody’s (Employment) 12 Future transportation improvement and service assumptions from SCSs and RTPs throughout the state, and from Caltrans modal plans.

13. Changes in Population and Employment 13

14. CHTS Data – Sampling Rates 14 CountyHouseholds WeekdayFull Percent Weekday SamplesRateSamplesRate Alpine49791 in 55211 in 2443% Del Norte9,907901 in 1101871 in 5348% Monterey125,9463181 in 3961,0121 in 12431% Tulare130,3522811 in 4647931 in 16435% San Mateo257,8375811 in 4441,1291 in 22851% Stanislaus165,1801921 in 8605411 in 30535% Los Angeles3,239,5713,3011 in 9818,1021 in 40041% Sacramento513,9453501 in 1,4688181 in 62843% San Diego1,086,8656981 in 1,5571,6681 in 65242% Statewide12,575,86017,4451 in 72141,9581 in 30042%

15. California State Freight Forecasting Model Under development by UC Irvine Commodity-based model » Converted to long distance truck trips for CSTDM Primary ModulesModeVehicle Class Commodity Module : Predicts commodity flows Transshipment Module : Assigns commodities to specific modes Network Module : Assigns truck/rail modes to routes Truck Rail Water Air (+Truck-Air) Multiple Modes FHWA Class : Class 5 to 13 Source: UC Irvine

16. 2015/2040 Sensitivity Test: Increase Auto Operating Costs Shift in trips to transit and non-motorized modes (SDPTM) Decrease in total daily VMT 16

17. 2015/2040 Sensitivity Test: Increase Auto Operating Cost Volume decrease on roadways across the state 17 Green = Decreased roadways volumes Red = Increased roadway volumes

18. CSTDM Future Forecasts for CTP 2040 Analyze several scenarios to obtain maximum feasible greenhouse gas (GHG) emission reductions. A scenario will be defined as multiple surface transportation GHG reduction strategies. “ An example of a scenario would include a strategy or multiple strategies (e.g. VMT tax – the base (existing condition) would be no tax, moderately aggressive would be $.10 per mile and aggressive would be $.25 per mile). The CSTDM is currently being updated and is anticipated to be available Winter 2013/14. 18

19. Strategies Handled Using CSTDM 19 Pricing VMT Fee Regional gas tax/national tax assumption Transportation Alternatives Carpool Park and ride lots Mode Shift Expand transit Expand passenger rail Operational Efficiency HOV/HOT lanes Bottleneck relief

20. Strategies Handled Outside of CSTDM Pricing Congestion pricing Regional development impact fee Transportation Alternatives Carpool Carsharing Mode Shift Safe Routes to School Expand bike Expand pedestrian Operational Efficiency Intelligent Transportation System and advance vehicle and roadside communication Incident and emergency management 20

21. CTP 2040 Alternatives 21 Scenarios Statewide Strategy Packages Alt 1 Planned Alt 2 Planned + Future Strategies Alt 3 Meeting the Goals RTP/SCS, Modal Plans and cleaner car/truck standards MODERATE Vehicle Fleet + Strategies such as pricing, mode shift, operational efficiencies, etc. + Alt1 = = AGGRESSIVE Vehicle Fleet + Strategies such as pricing, mode shift, operational efficiencies, etc. + Alt1 =

22. CSTDM Update Objectives 22 Key Objectives CTP 2040/ Interregional Travel/ Rural Analysis Needs Build on/improve the initial CSTDM Improve model inputs (networks, network processing, zones) Enhance model credibility, access & usefulness Leverage CHTS with new data – Census, NHTS, long- distance surveys

23. CSTDM Update + 2040 CTP Forecasts Milestones 23 (March 2013) (October 2013) (December 2014) (February 2014) CHTS Draft 2010, 2020, 2040 Model Draft 2015, 2030, 2050 Model Final Version of Model for all Years Final CTP Forecasts (~January 2015)

24. Q & A

25. Statewide Modeling History 25 2004 1 st Statewide Model 2007 HSR Model v 1.0 2010 CSTDM v1.0 (Base Year) 2012 CSTDM v 1.0 (2015/ 2040) 2014 CSTDM v 2.0 (Base + Future No-Build) Early 2015 (CTP Forecasts) Continued HSR Model Improvements