1. Multi-Faceted Services of New NWS Local Climate Products
Marina Timofeyeva,
University Corporation for Atmospheric Research and NOAA NWS
Contributors: Robert Livezey, Michael Brewer,
Annette Hollingshead and David Unger
NOAA NWS OCWWS CSD

2. Outline Lessons of L3MTO implementation New local user needs
What NWS can offer in response to these needs?
New local product: 3 Month Outlook of Local El Nino / La Nina Impacts (3MOLEI) with Rate of Local Climate Change
3MOLEI local variables developmental work incorporates local climate specificities and user needs

3. L3MTO Implementation Lessons
Provides guidance for local users

4. L3MTO Implementation Lessons
Links NOAA National Centers (CPC, NCDC) with Local Offices and local users
Expertise in
Metadata and
Observations
Local Customer Services and Feedback
NOAA
NESDIS NCDC
NOAA
NWS Regional
And Local
Offices
NOAA
NWS NCEP
CPC
Expertise in data QC,
Homogenized
Data
Expertise in
Monitoring and
Outlook Products

5. L3MTO Implementation Lessons
Meets scientific requirements (RISAs)
Verification (ARC + Forecast Evaluation Tool)
Consistency in components’ interpretation

6. L3MTO Implementation Lessons
Meets scientific requirements (RISAs)
Verification (ARC + Forecast Evaluation Tool)
Consistency in components’ interpretation
Help consists of:
Definitions and Interpretation Examples
Benefits and Limitations
Glossary

7. L3MTO Implementation Lessons
Serves user educational purposes:
Conveys visualization of probabilistic forecast
Supplements outlook with historical climate reference information

8. L3MTO Implementation Lessons
Contains user interaction component:
continuous customer feedback
Total 465

9. New Local Customer Needs
Climate Change: Information, Local impacts
Western Governors Association
California Water Resources
Alaska oil companies; wild life management
El Nino / La Nina: Information, Local impacts
Canaan Valley, West Virginia, 2004 Congressional Request
Water Resources Management
Pacific ENSO Applications Climate Center (PEAC)

10. NWS Climate Change Guidance to Local Users
NWS mission does not include projections of climate change for the future decades: maximum lead of NWS climate outlooks is months for 3 month average temperature or total precipitation
NWS local staff is able to provides different educational materials on local customers:
Fact sheets on Climate Change
Comprehensive summary on science of Global Climate Change
IPCC report facts
NWS is committed to provide the best quality climate observation that can be used in local climate change assessments. Besides the raw data, available local and regional climate change products include:
Range of climate variability for climatology period and full records
Current rate of trends in climate variables
Impacts of other climate phenomena on trend adjusted climate variables
Other NOAA line offices that provide information on climate change:
National Climatic Data Center
Earth System Research Laboratory
National Oceanographic Data Center
Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Lab

11. Rate of Local T/P Change
Scientific justification for the product:
NCDC Data: local trend is preserved, while artificial step changes have been removed
Methodology peer reviewed (Livezey, et al., 2007)
Predictability is currently being tested

12. Rate of Local T/P Change
Although using a simple linear model, hinge reduces sampling error by:
Anchoring line on previous to 1976 observations (Hinge)
Expressed in variable units per decade or per 30 years:
60 years range 48°F to 58°F, current rate of rise 1.7°F/10 years

13. Rate of Change Regional versus Local

14. 3 Month Outlook of Local El Nino / La Nina Impacts
Based on composite analysis
On trend adjusted data
With significance test to avoid sampling error
1941,1958,1966,
1973,1983,1987,
1988,1992,1995,
1998
Eastern North Dakota Temperature (°F)
Eastern North Dakota Temperature (°F)

15. 3 Month Outlook of Local El Nino / La Nina Impacts
Forecast alters historical probabilities to forecast for Nino 3.4SST (Higgins,et al., 2004)
HistoricForecast alters historical probabilities to forecast for Nino 3.4 SST (Higgins, et al., 2004al Probabilities
Nino 3.4. Forecast
Nino3.4
Term
Warm
Neutral
Cold
Above
67%
33%
11%
Near
13%
53%
28%
Below
20%
14%
61%
CPC CURRENT ENSO FORECAST:
NINO 3.4 INITIAL TIME X
PROJECTION FRACTION
Lead Mo BELOW NORMAL ABOVE
JFM
FORECAST USING CURRENT CPC Nino 3.4:
Example – ElNino with 7.5 month lead (forecast for JFM 2005):

16. 3MOLEI Development

17. 3MOLEI Beyond T / P NWS Local Offices Studies
CR Studies
Number of tornado days
Number of significant tornadoes in the north central U.S.
AR Studies
Min/Max temperature and precipitation
ER Studies
3MOLEI methodology test
SR Studies
Extreme events in the Florida dry season and their relationship to ENSO, PNA, AO and NAO
Major extratropical (ET) storms
Severe weather (Tornadoes)
Excessive rainfall and flooding
Drought and wildfire
Severe cold outbreaks
WR Studies
US SW river flow exceedance of flooding stage
PR Studies
Sea level change
Extreme precipitation events

18. Summary
L3MTO implementation tested a new approach in developing local climate products
Needs of local users include information and impact on Climate Change and ENSO
3MOLEI implementation will include auxiliary product: Rate of Local T/P Change
Prototype stage testing is expected in May 2008
Experimental release is expected in September 2008
Local staff has been trained to provide climate services on new local products
Local studies at WFO level raise local climate expertise and help to incorporate local user needs in identifying new climate variables for potential operational forecast products