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Economic and Asset Class update is an Authorised Representative of RI Advice Group Pty Ltd November 2011 -

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Presentation on theme: "Economic and Asset Class update is an Authorised Representative of RI Advice Group Pty Ltd November 2011 -"— Presentation transcript:

1 Economic and Asset Class update is an Authorised Representative of RI Advice Group Pty Ltd November 2011 -

2 Economic and Asset Class update is an Authorised Representative of RI Advice Group Pty Ltd November 2011 -

3 Economic and Asset Class update is an Authorised Representative of RI Advice Group Pty Ltd My Name Financial November 2011 -

4 Economic and Asset Class update is an Authorised Representative of RI Advice Group Pty Ltd JV logo November 2011 -

5 Disclaimer Important Notice RI Advice Group Pty Ltd, ABN 23 001 774 125, holds Australian Financial Services Licence Number 238429 and is licensed to provide financial product advice and deal in financial products such as: deposit and payment products, derivatives, life products, managed investment schemes including investor directed portfolio services, securities, superannuation, Retirement Savings Accounts. The information presented in this seminar is of a general nature only and neither represents nor is intended to be specific advice on any particular matter. RI Advice Group strongly suggests that no person should act specifically on the basis of the information contained herein but should obtain appropriate professional advice based on their own circumstances. This information is current as at November 2011. Past performance is no guarantee of future performance.

6 November 2011 Economic & Asset Class Update

7 Section 1 – Economic update

8 United States: key stats Interest Rate GDP Growth Rate Inflation Rate Jobless Rate Government Budget Exchange Rate 0.25%2.00%3.50%9.00%-10.30%79.36 Source: TradingEconomics.com; Bureau of Economic Analysis As at November 2011

9 United States: Employment Economic data on the whole beat expectations in October. Q3 GDP rose to 2.5% on a seasonally adjusted annualised rate. Employment continued to trend up in October (+80,000), and the unemployment rate was little changed at 9.0%

10 US GDP Cycles – Pre-recession Peak = 100 Current Cycle Range of 8 previous cycles 10 Source: Thomson Financial Datastream & INGIM OptiMix Quarters since peak in GDP Source: Panning for Gold in a River of Mud – November 2011 Lewis South, Senior Portfolio Manager, OptiMix Multi Strategies Team Developed world recovery has been lacklustre

11 Federal Reserve is a long way from meeting its mandate Source: Thomson Financial & Bloomberg Source: Panning for Gold in a River of Mud – November 2011 Lewis South, Senior Portfolio Manager, OptiMix Multi Strategies Team

12 Source: Bloomberg & INGIM OptiMix Broad based weakening in Euro area activity Source: Panning for Gold in a River of Mud – November 2011 Lewis South, Senior Portfolio Manager, OptiMix Multi Strategies Team

13 Developed markets outlook Aftershocks of 2008-09 GFC continue to impact –Burden of high private sector debt was passed on to Governments –Banking sector in Europe was never recapitalised Solutions are long term in nature –History has shown it takes up to 10 years for debt reduction to occur –Authorities need to redesign the entire Euro area framework Policy mix is poor –Sizeable fall in Government spending in most major developed markets –Monetary policy left to carry the burden (blunt instrument, most bullets fired) Result: muddle through is best case with growth at or below potential Source: Panning for Gold in a River of Mud – November 2011 Lewis South, Senior Portfolio Manager, OptiMix Multi Strategies Team

14 Business surveys point to slow growth in the US Source: Thomson Financial & INGIM OptiMix Source: Panning for Gold in a River of Mud – November 2011 Lewis South, Senior Portfolio Manager, OptiMix Multi Strategies Team

15 Fiscal austerity dragging on growth Source: OECD, IMF & INGIM OptiMix Region Historical average GDP growth 1980- 2008 (%) Average growth 2010-2011 Planned fiscal contraction 2012-2013 (% of GDP) US32¼-1¾ Euro area21¾-¾-¾ - Germany23¼-½ - France21½ - Italy1½1-1½ - PIGS3-½ UK2½1¼-1¾ OECD total2¾2¼-1½ 15 Source: Panning for Gold in a River of Mud – November 2011 Lewis South, Senior Portfolio Manager, OptiMix Multi Strategies Team

16 Debt problem is a big issue in Europe Source: BIS & INGIM OptiMix Source: Panning for Gold in a River of Mud – November 2011 Lewis South, Senior Portfolio Manager, OptiMix Multi Strategies Team

17 Italy is fast approaching the point of no return Source: Bloomberg Source: Panning for Gold in a River of Mud – November 2011 Lewis South, Senior Portfolio Manager, OptiMix Multi Strategies Team

18 China: key stats Interest Rate GDP Growth Rate Inflation Rate Jobless Rate Government Budget Exchange Rate 6.56%9.10%5.50%4.30%-2.50%6.38 As at 28 November 2011

19 Recent slowing in China has been driven by the Gov’t Source: JP Morgan Source: Panning for Gold in a River of Mud – November 2011 Lewis South, Senior Portfolio Manager, OptiMix Multi Strategies Team

20 Gov’t debt is low compared to developed economies Source: JP Morgan * includes local government debt Source: Panning for Gold in a River of Mud – November 2011 Lewis South, Senior Portfolio Manager, OptiMix Multi Strategies Team

21 Chinese inflation has now peaked Source: Thomson Financial & Bloomberg Source: Panning for Gold in a River of Mud – November 2011 Lewis South, Senior Portfolio Manager, OptiMix Multi Strategies Team

22 Contribution to aggregate world GDP 2000 2010 Changing structure of global economy Source: IMF & INGIM OptiMix Source: Panning for Gold in a River of Mud – November 2011 Lewis South, Senior Portfolio Manager, OptiMix Multi Strategies Team

23 If history is a guide, China has a long way to go Source: Conference Board & INGIM OptiMix Per capita GDP (Start of major development phase = 1) South Korea Japan China 23 Source: Panning for Gold in a River of Mud – November 2011 Lewis South, Senior Portfolio Manager, OptiMix Multi Strategies Team

24 Source: Google & INGIM OptiMix City Metro Population (million) Lines in operation Planned new lines Guangzhou12.0620 Shenzhen8.6213 Tianjin8.2113 Chongqing7.519 Nanjing6.8217 Wuhan6.617 Hangzhou6.309 Shenyang5.1111 Infrastructure still needs to be built Source: Panning for Gold in a River of Mud – November 2011 Lewis South, Senior Portfolio Manager, OptiMix Multi Strategies Team

25 Global GDP will be very different again by 2020 Contribution to aggregate world GDP 2010 2020 Source: IMF & INGIM OptiMix Source: Panning for Gold in a River of Mud – November 2011 Lewis South, Senior Portfolio Manager, OptiMix Multi Strategies Team

26 Australia: key stats Interest Rate Growth Rate Inflation Rate Jobless Rate Government Budget Exchange Rate 4.50%1.20%3.50%5.20%-4.301.00 Source: TradingEconomics.com; Australian Bureau of Statistics As at 30 November 2011

27 RBA is currently achieving its goals Source: ABS, RBA & INGIM OptiMix *Headline prior to 1983 Source: Panning for Gold in a River of Mud – November 2011 Lewis South, Senior Portfolio Manager, OptiMix Multi Strategies Team

28 Investment growth strong, dominated by mining Source: ABS & INGIM OptiMix Source: Panning for Gold in a River of Mud – November 2011 Lewis South, Senior Portfolio Manager, OptiMix Multi Strategies Team

29 Negative side effect from China’s boost Source: ABS & RBA Source: Panning for Gold in a River of Mud – November 2011 Lewis South, Senior Portfolio Manager, OptiMix Multi Strategies Team

30 Australia - Multi speed economy Source: ABS & INGIM OptiMix Source: Panning for Gold in a River of Mud – November 2011 Lewis South, Senior Portfolio Manager, OptiMix Multi Strategies Team

31 Consumption has not been as weak as retail data suggests Source: ABS & INGIM OptiMix Source: Panning for Gold in a River of Mud – November 2011 Lewis South, Senior Portfolio Manager, OptiMix Multi Strategies Team

32 Section 2 – Interest rate outlook

33 Markets are pricing significant rate cuts Source: RBA & JP Morgan*OIS pricing as at 23 rd November 2011 Source: Panning for Gold in a River of Mud – November 2011 Lewis South, Senior Portfolio Manager, OptiMix Multi Strategies Team

34 The Australian equity market looks cheap by any measure Source: Panning for Gold in a River of Mud – November 2011 Lewis South, Senior Portfolio Manager, OptiMix Multi Strategies Team

35 But the bond market has been right the last five years Source: Bloomberg Source: Panning for Gold in a River of Mud – November 2011 Lewis South, Senior Portfolio Manager, OptiMix Multi Strategies Team

36 Summary Developed economies –Significant challenges ahead, with growth likely to only be modest at best China –Short term concerns have been overplayed –Long term drivers remain very positive Australia –We have benefited, and continue to benefit, from the China story –But not everyone benefits, with multi speed economy likely to remain a theme for some time Market outlook: Equity market looks cheap but bond markets say be wary Source: Panning for Gold in a River of Mud – November 2011 Lewis South, Senior Portfolio Manager, OptiMix Multi Strategies Team

37 Section 3 – Economic data

38 World economy – key economic indicators Real GDP Growth – year ended Source: Reserve Bank of Australian Chart Pack November 2011

39 World economy – key economic indicators Core Consumer Price Inflation * Year ended Inflation Year ended Source: Reserve Bank of Australian Chart Pack November 2011

40 World economy – key economic indicators Unemployment Rate Source: Reserve Bank of Australian Chart Pack November 2011

41 Australia – GDP Growth and Inflation GDP Growth Consumer Price Inflation * Source: Reserve Bank of Australian Chart Pack November 2011

42 Australia – Household Sector Retail Sales Growth Housing Loan Approvals* Source: Reserve Bank of Australian Chart Pack November 2011

43 Australia - Factors of Production and Labour Market Labour Force Employment Source: Reserve Bank of Australian Chart Pack November 2011

44 Australia – Commodity Prices RBA Index of Commodity Prices 2008/09 average = 100, SDR Commodity Prices SDR, 2003 average = 100, weekly Source: Reserve Bank of Australian Chart Pack November 2011

45 World interest rates over time Source: RBA, BOJ, ECB http://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/interest-rates-table/ As at November 2011

46 World interest rate movements in detail Current rateLast moved Direction of last move Australia 4.50%Nov 2011 United States 0% - 0.25%Dec 2008 Europe (ECB) 1.25%Nov 2011 Japan 0.10%Dec 2008 United Kingdom 0.50%Mar 2009 China 6.56%July 2011 Source: RBA, BOJ, ECB http://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/interest-rates-table/ As at November 2011 The Reserve Bank of Australia eased monetary policy in early November, cutting the official cash rate by 0.25% to 4.50%. This was the first move in interest rates since November 2010.

47 Interest rates US Bond Yields 3 – 5 years US Bond Spreads To US government bonds, 3–5 years Source: Reserve Bank of Australian Chart Pack November 2011

48 Interest rates Australian Bond Yields * Australian Bond Spreads * Spread over government yields, monthly Source: Reserve Bank of Australian Chart Pack November 2011

49 Currency movements $1 AUD buys:United States1.0610 Europe (ECB)0.7606 Japan83.2300 United Kingdom0.6573 Source: DataStream As at 31 October 2011

50 Exchange rates Australian Dollar against US Dollar, Euro and Yen Source: Reserve Bank of Australian Chart Pack November 2011

51 Global markets long term performance Source: IRESS As at 31 October 2011 $97,946 $8,909$55,254 $52,159 Growth of $10,000 as at 31 October 2011

52 Global share market returns Source: Datastream As at 31 October 2011 1 year %3 years % p.a.5 years % p.a. S&P 500 Index (US) 5.928.96-1.88 NASDAQ (US Tech.) 7.0615.972.55 Dow Jones (US) 7.528.63-0.21 Nikkei 225 (Japan) -2.331.57-11.33 Hang Seng (Hong Kong) -13.9912.451.63 DAX (Germany) -6.977.18-0.41 CAC40 (France) -15.41-2.39-9.52 FTSE 100 (UK) -2.318.20-1.99 ASX 200 (Aust.) -3.656.94-0.18 Global Index Summary as at 31 October 2011

53 Global vs. Australian shares over time Source: Datastream Timeframe: 01/01/98 – 31/10/11 Data: Australian shares - S&P/ASX 300 Accum. Index, International Shares - MSCI World (ex Aus) in $A Growth of $10,000 invested from January 1998 to October 2011.

54 Australian vs. US markets Source: Iress As at 25 November 2011 Growth of $10,000 invested in Australian and US markets over time

55 Section 4 – Asset class review

56 Key asset sector index performance summary 1 month % 3 months % 1 Year % 3 Years % p.a. 5 Years % p.a. Global Equities (MSCI World [ex-Australia] Index, unhedged) 0.87-2.94-5.54-5.30-6.75 Australian Equities (S&P/ASX 300 Accumulation Index) 7.23-1.49-3.877.06-0.24 Property Securities (S&P/ASX 200 A-REIT Accumulation Index) 3.802.21-2.25-1.67-12.79 Australian Fixed Interest (UBS Australian Composite Bond Index) -0.572.328.426.906.96 Global Fixed Interest (Barclays Capital Global Aggregate Index Hedged $A) 0.343.107.8410.678.48 Cash (UBS Australian Bank Bill Index) 0.421.245.024.445.54 Source: Datastream As at 31 October 2011 Index Performance Summary 31 October 2011

57 Global shares The MSCI World (ex Australia) Index rose by 0.9% in AUD terms over the month of October. The solid appreciation of the AUD against most currencies - US Dollar (9%) and Japanese Yen (10.6%) - detracted from the strong rally in global equity markets. Investors increased risk in their portfolios as global equities rebounded sharply. Rebound was driven by a belief that a breakthrough was imminent in European leaders’ discussions regarding containing the debt crisis to Greece. Better than expected US growth and the potential for monetary stimulus in places like China, Australia, Europe and India also lifted sentiment. Source: OptiMix Economic Highlights and Asset Sector Review – October 2011 Based on information provided by ING Investment Management ‘s Multi Strategies Team

58 Global shares con’t. In local currency terms the US share market rose significantly by 10.8% European markets also rallied by 7.5% despite weak macro conditions. Germany’s stock market, in particular, rebounded strongly by 11.7% leaving only Greece and Portugal negative across the Euro region. The UK was up strongly by 8.0% over the month. In Asian equity markets Hong Kong rose by 12.1% and Singapore was up 6.2% over the month. The Japanese equity market only moved up marginally by 0.9% in October as investors sought other equity markets which had been significantly sold-off. Source: OptiMix Economic Highlights and Asset Sector Review – October 2011 Based on information provided by ING Investment Management ‘s Multi Strategies Team

59 Global emerging markets Emerging markets shares, as measured by the MSCI Emerging Market Index, rose by 3.7% in October, in AUD terms. Asia (9.5%) was the best performing region in October, followed by Latin America (8.5%) and EMEA (7.6%). At the sector level, cyclical sectors such as Energy (11.5%), Financials (11%), Industrials (10%) and Materials (9.5%) outperformed the broader index. Defensive sectors such as Health Care (2.7%), Consumer Staples (6.1%) and Utilities (7.6%) underperformed over the month. Source: OptiMix Economic Highlights and Asset Sector Review – October 2011 Based on information provided by ING Investment Management ‘s Multi Strategies Team

60 Australian equities Investors sought to add risk to their portfolios in October, enabling the Australian share market to record a solid gain. The Australian sharemarket as represented by the ASX300 Accumulation Index had its strongest performance (+7.2%) since July 2009. Agreements reached at the EU summit indicated a level of progress towards resolving the European debt issues. Strong gains were seen across the All Industrials (+6.4%) and Resources (+9.1%). Small Caps (+7.9%) and Large Caps (+7.2%) rallied strongly. The strong market level performance was largely driven by the cyclical sectors and companies. Within Resources (+9.1%), the Energy sector (+12.2%) delivered the strongest gains. Banks (+10.7%) and Insurance (+9.7%) drove the strong Financials (+9.2%) sector returns. Defensive sectors including Consumer Staples (+0.3%), Healthcare (+1.5%), Telcos (-0.1%) and Utilities (+3.0%) underperformed Cyclical sectors as investors’ risk appetite returned. Source: OptiMix Economic Highlights and Asset Sector Review – October 2011 Based on information provided by ING Investment Management ‘s Multi Strategies Team

61 Australian fixed interest The Australian fixed interest market returned -0.57% over the month of October but delivered an 8.42% return over the last year. An easing in concerns surrounding the European sovereign debt crisis saw a reversal of some of the previous falls in bond yields as equity markets recovered somewhat from their recent lows. Bond yields rose across all maturities, with 3-year yields rising +26bps to 3.88% and 10-year yields rising by +29bps across the month to 4.51%. The Reserve Bank of Australia cut rates by 0.25% at its November policy meeting to 4.5%. This is the first time rates have moved since November 2010. Source: OptiMix Economic Highlights and Asset Sector Review – October 2011 Based on information provided by ING Investment Management ‘s Multi Strategies Team

62 International fixed interest The Barclays Capital Global Aggregate (Hedged in AUD) returned 0.34% over the month of October. The weak market return for the month resulted from: –easing of concerns over the European sovereign debt situation. –a run of stronger US economic activity indicators lowered concerns over the potential for a renewed period of US recession. –economic indicators in China were increasingly suggestive of a modest soft landing in economic growth unfolding. US 10-year bond yield rose more than 60bps to an intra-month high of 2.40% before finishing the month at 2.11% The UK bond market outperformed most other developed bond markets during October following the Bank of England’s decision to increase the size of their asset purchase programme. The European component of the bond market in contrast underperformed the global government index, returning -0.86% in the month. Source: OptiMix Economic Highlights and Asset Sector Review – October 2011 Based on information provided by ING Investment Management ‘s Multi Strategies Team

63 Australian property securities The S&P/ASX 300 A-REIT Accumulation Index rose by 3.8% over the month of October. At the sectoral level - the industrial (+8.7%) sector rebounded strongly from a heavy fall the previous month, significantly outperforming the diversified (+6.2%), commercial (+2.6%) and retail (+1.5%) sectors. Source: OptiMix Economic Highlights and Asset Sector Review – October 2011 Based on information provided by ING Investment Management ‘s Multi Strategies Team

64 Global property securities Global property securities rose strongly in October, with the UBS Global Investors Index rising by 9.9% in local currency terms. Strength was almost uniformly evident at the regional level, with each of North America (+13.9%), the UK (+7.6%), Continental Europe (+5.3%) and Singapore (+5.1%) recording gains in excess of 5%. Japan (-2.8%) was the sole area of underperformance for the month. Source: OptiMix Economic Highlights and Asset Sector Review – October 2011 Based on information provided by ING Investment Management ‘s Multi Strategies Team

65 Section 5 – Asset class performance over time

66 Australian sharemarket - S&P/ASX 300 Source: Iress - S&P/ASX 300 As at 28 November 2011 The Australian share market closed up 7.23% as at 31 October 2011. March 6, 2009 3133.8 Oct 31, 2011 4294.9

67 Timeframe: 01/01/83 – 31/10/11 Data: Australian shares - S&P/ASX 300 Accum. Index, International Shares - MSCI World (ex Aus) in $A, Listed Property Trusts - S&P/ASX 200 Prop Trust, Australian Fixed Interest: Commonwealth Bank Bond Index (Pre Sept 89) / UBSA Composite Bond All Maturities Index (Post Sept 89), Cash: 11am Cash Rate (Pre Apr 87) / UBS Bank Bill Index (Post Apr 87). Source: RBA, DataStream Growth of $10,000 over time Long term asset class performance

68 Timeframe: 31/10/10 – 31/10/11 Data: Australian shares - S&P/ASX 300 Accum. Index, International Shares - MSCI World (ex Aus) in $A, Listed Property Trusts - S&P/ASX 200 Prop Trust, Australian Fixed Interest: Commonwealth Bank Bond Index (Pre Sept 89) / UBSA Composite Bond All Maturities Index (Post Sept 89), Cash: 11am Cash Rate (Pre Apr 87) / UBS Bank Bill Index (Post Apr 87) Source: RBA, DataStream Monthly returns as at 31 October 2011 Short term asset class performance

69 1 year returns as at 31 October 2011 Timeframe: 31/10/2011 Data: Australian shares - S&P/ASX 300 Accum. Index, International Shares - MSCI World (ex Aus) in $A, Listed Property Trusts - S&P/ASX 200 Prop Trust, Australian Fixed Interest: Commonwealth Bank Bond Index (Pre Sept 89) / UBSA Composite Bond All Maturities Index (Post Sept 89), Cash: 11am Cash Rate (Pre Apr 87) / UBSA Bank Bill Index (Post Apr 87) Source: DataStream Short term asset class performance

70 Section 6 – The benefits of staying invested

71 The two greatest strategies that can help reduce the risk of a negative outcome 1. Diversification Spreading investments across multiple asset classes canhelp reduce risk. 2. Time Time in the market can help reduce the chance of a negative outcome.

72 Data: Australian Shares - S&P/ASX 300 Accum. Index, International Shares - MSCI World (ex Aus) in $A - unhedged, Property Securities - S&P/ASX 200 Prop Trust, Australian Fixed Interest: Commonwealth Bank Bond Index (Pre Sept 89) / UBSA Composite Bond All Maturities Index (Post Sept 89), Source: Datastream. Note: Returns based on October 1 year rolling returns. The importance of diversification Spreading your assets and investments across various asset classes can be the best way to guard against short term volatility in any one asset class. Every asset class has its day…

73 …determine your goals and risk profile Timeframe: 01/01/83 – 31/10/11 Data: Australian shares - S&P/ASX 300 Accum. Index, International Shares - MSCI World (ex Aus) in $A, Listed Property Trusts - S&P/ASX 200 Prop Trust, Australian Fixed Interest: Commonwealth Bank Bond Index (Pre Sept 89) / UBSA Composite Bond All Maturities Index (Post Sept 89), Cash: 11am Cash Rate (Pre Apr 87) / UBS Bank Bill Index (Post Apr 87) Growth of $10,000 over time using different risk return strategies

74 It pays to stick to your investment plan Source: S&P/ASX 300 ACC Index As at 31 October 2011 Markets will always fluctuate but the longer you stay invested, the less affected you are by short-term volatility. Short term pain… Long term gain…

75 Time in the market Smooth the ride. Markets will always fluctuate but the longer you stay invested, the less affected you are by the short-term volatility. Don’t miss the recovery. In many instances when investment markets recover they tend to bounce back quickly. Withdrawing from the market means you risk missing out on the best gains. Long-term rewards. Market volatility may lead to short-term downturns in your portfolio. But history shows that markets will generally recover these losses over the long term. Days investedValue since 1993Average annual return Invested for all days$39,92711.04% Minus 10 best days$25,4807.33% Minus 25 best days$15,3183.28% Minus 50 best days$8,159-1.53% Data: All Ordinaries Accumulation Index 01/01/1993 – 30/06/2011

76 Time in is everything – the benefits of staying invested How missing the best trading days can significantly affect returns $10,000 invested in the All Ords Accumulation Index between January 1993 and June 2011 Data: All Ordinaries Accumulation Index 01/01/1993 – 30/06/2011

77 Time in is everything – the benefits of staying invested How missing the best trading days can significantly affect returns $10,000 invested in the All Ords Accumulation Index between January 1993 and June 2011 Data: All Ordinaries Accumulation Index 01/01/1993 – 30/06/2011

78 Time in is everything – the benefits of staying invested How missing the best trading days can significantly affect returns Average annual return between January 1993 and June 2011. Data: All Ordinaries Accumulation Index 01/01/1993 – 30/06/2011

79 Thank you


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