1. 2011 Northeast LA Business Outlook Summit Dr. Robert Eisenstadt, University of Louisiana at Monroe Dr. John Francis, Louisiana Tech University

2. PowerPoint presentations from the 2011 BOS will be made available for review on-line at: cba.ulm.edu/cber

3. The Change in Real Louisiana GSP State 2005-20072007-2009 Rank % changeRank % change Oregon113.6%31-2.7% Wyoming213.0%119.6% Utah312.5%110.2% Texas410.2%15-0.3% Arizona510.0%46-5.9% Louisiana50-6.5%64.1%

4. State 2005-20072007-2009 Rank% changeRank% change Louisiana50-6.5%64.1% Arkansas313.4%100.6% Mississippi215.0%90.8% Texas410.2%15-0.3% The Change in Real Louisiana GSP continued

5. Metropolitan Area 2005-20072007-2009 State Rank % change State Rank % change Lafayette116.7%34.6% Alexandria26.7%7-2.3% Shreveport-Bossier City33.3%19.3% Monroe41.9%6-1.6% Baton Rouge5-7.9%41.8% New Orleans-Metairie-Kenner6-11.3%25.8% Lake Charles7-31.3%50.4% The Change in Real GSP by LA MSA

6. Population Change by MSA: 2000-2010 2000-2010 change in US = 9.7% 2000-2010 change in LA = 1.4%

7. Population Change in NE Louisiana: 2000-2010 Ouachita/Lincoln Parish: +10,696 NELA less Ouach/Lincoln: - 8,800

8. Index of population change 1980-2010 (1980=1): US, LA, NELA Hispanic as % of Population 19802010 Louisiana2.35%4.25% United States6.45%16.35%

9. Other Economic Indicators

12. New Light Trucks/Vans: State/Year2007200820092010 Louisiana157,665126,57492,10598,783 NE Louisiana10,2018,4186,2817,057

13. New Automobiles: 2007200820092010 Louisiana98,08389,25865,78261,637 NE Louisiana4,4624,3763,2543,399

14. NE LA Dealer Sample: New Vehicles: Source: Cross-Sell Reports

15. Building Permits:

16. Housing Permits Ouachita Parish 200520062007200820092010 Building Permits580516437271232219 Total Cost (millions $) $103.6$89.5$68.0$47.3$38.5$37.3 Building Permit Value: Source: U.S. Census

17. % Change Median Price RankState% change 2008-10 1 North Dakota10.2% 2Oklahoma4.0% 3Iowa3.0% 4Louisiana2.6% 5Nebraska2.2% 2008-10 Change in Existing Home Prices: Top 5 States Northeast LA = +3.2% United States = -12.7% Source: National Association of Realtors

18. And the lowest ranking states: RankState % change in median price 2008-10 46California-17.8% 47Idaho-17.9% 48Florida-26.4% 49Arizona-28.6% 50Nevada-31.8%

19. 200820092010%chg 2008-10 Baton Rouge $165,000$163,000$169,600+2.8% New Orleans$160,500$160,100$159,700-0.5% Monroe$129,000$134,000$135,000+4.7% Shreveport$138,500$147,000$156,600+13.1% % Change in Median Home Prices: Louisiana MSA’s: Source: National Association of Realtors

20. Home Price less than $200,000 200820092010 Close price $115,000$118,000$114,500 Price per Sq Foot$71.05$73.49$72.11 Home Price Greater Than or Equal to $200,000 200820092010 Close price $252,000$249,900$252,000 Price per Sq Foot$106.41$106.33$107.51 All Existing Homes 200820092010 Close price $128,850$133,000 Price per Sq Foot$77.12$80.81$79.73 Existing Home Sales in Lincoln, Morehouse, Ouachita, Union seem to lack support for a significant price rise… Source: NE LA Board of Realtors MLS

21. 200820092010 Under $200,000126211981161 $200,000 and up290317340 Until we note the number of homes sold in Northeast LA:

22. 20062007200820092010 listings27582745266424172643 sales17301679155215131501 Existing homes Market: Ouachita, Morehouse, Lincoln, Union

23. And bankruptcy filings in LA lag the Nation: 2007 = 1.0 Western District 2010 =12,536 (+5.1%) Louisiana 2010 = 19,236 (+5.3%) U.S (+13.8%) Source: U.S. Federal Court Ouachita Parish Foreclosures 2004200520062007200820092010 593486601655601650582 Ouachita foreclosures are down (approx ½ US rate):

24. The Labor Market

25. Total Covered Employment (Jobs): Figures as of 2 nd qtr 2010: LA Dept of Labor; USBLS.

26. Construction:

27. Manufacturing:

28. Retail Trade:

29. Finance and Insurance:

30. Health Care & Social Assistance: *US data contains both education and health care

31. Total Employment (excluding Healthcare):

32. Unemployed Dec-07Dec-10 Alexandria2,5464,720 Baton Rouge13,52927,103 Houma2,6795,213 Lafayette3,5964,656 Lake Charles3,5306,379 Monroe3,5246,139 New Orleans17,07238,136 Shreveport7,79912,079 Unemployment Rate (%) Dec-07Dec-10 Alexandria3.86.7 Baton Rouge3.77.1 Houma2.65.1 Lafayette3.35.6 Lake Charles3.86.7 Monroe4.47.7 New Orleans3.37.0 Shreveport4.36.6 Unemployment by MSA: Source: Laworks.net US 12/2010=9.1% LA 12/2010=7.2%

33. Dec-09 RDec-10 R Total Nonfarm Employment in Louisiana 1,890,0001,899,300 Total Private Non-farm Employment in Louisiana1,518,7001,534,700 Dec 2007 RDec 2009 RDec 2010 R Mining & Logging51,60047,30052,300 Oil & Gas Extraction7,9008,9008,600 Crude Petrol & Nat Gas Ext7,8008,6008,000 Support Activities for Mining39,20036,40039,600 Drilling Oil & Gas Wells9,6007,3009,000 Louisiana Employment: LA continued weekly unemployment claims 2009-10 = -24.2% US continued weekly unemployment claims 2009-10 = -20.5%

34. Regional Outlook

35. Probable s sources of significant Job growth in Northeast Louisiana for the next 2-5 years: Manufacturing Autos Food processing Telecommunications Financial Services/Information

36. Jobs (f/t equivalent): 2,700 - 9,000 2.5% - 8.2% HH Income($ millions):$90.0 - $285.0 2.4% - 7.5% 5 year estimates of growth (range): % change based on aggregate of Lincoln, Morehouse, Ouachita, Richland, Union Parishes

37. Threats to local economic activity: Next Auto fails to obtain Federal Loan Cuts to State Government Higher Education Amounts unknown K-12 education Probably not

38. The Impact of Gardner Denver Thomas F/T Equivalent JobsHH Income Direct Effects230$9.2 Million Indirect Effects300$7.5 Million Total Impact530$16.7 Million Regarding the effect on NELA of State funding cuts to higher education, consider first the annual impact of Gardner Denver Thomas:

39. Now consider the combined impact of ULM, Tech, and Grambling on NELA. 100% of Spending F/T equivalent JobsHH Income From University Spending5,830$340 million From Student Spending2,020$37 million Total Impact7,850$377 million 5% Cut in Spending F/T equivalent JobsHH Income -292-$17.0 million -101-$1.85 million -393-$18.85 million And a 5% cut in State funding: Source of data: Louisiana Board of Regents

40. Thank you for Supporting the Tech/ULM Business Outlook Summit. ?’s