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GfK Retail and TechnologyGfK UK – PCA2008 PCA – GfK UK 30 th of October 2008.

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Presentation on theme: "GfK Retail and TechnologyGfK UK – PCA2008 PCA – GfK UK 30 th of October 2008."— Presentation transcript:

1 GfK Retail and TechnologyGfK UK – PCA2008 PCA – GfK UK 30 th of October 2008

2 GfK Retail and TechnologyGfK UK – PCA2008 Contents – PCA UK Economic Overview The Corporate market GfK Methodology Independents, Resellers, and System Integrators

3 GfK Retail and TechnologyGfK UK – PCA2008 Contents – PCA UK Economic Overview Corporate market GfK Methodology Independants, Resellers, and System Integrators

4 4 GfK Retail and TechnologyGfK UK - PCA2008 Consumer Background Western Europe Banking panic = credit crunch and fears throughout Europe General Electronics slowing trends PCs and Notebooks in particular are still seen as “top of the mind” products however Massive price decline since week 1/1/08 taken as “granted”, more for less a marketing basis However, latest technologies are well received (dualcores, Graphics, Large screens, …) Channels confused on what to sell and how to sell

5 5 GfK Retail and TechnologyGfK UK - PCA2008 The Media is full of doom and gloom helping to drive consumer sentiment

6 6 GfK Retail and TechnologyGfK UK - PCA2008 Bank Interest Rates Set monthly by the MPC (Monetary Policy Committee) Source: Bank of England The Bank of England cut rates by 0.5% to 4.5% after a special meeting was held. 5.25% 15% 4.5% 7.5% 3.5%

7 7 GfK Retail and TechnologyGfK UK - PCA2008 Inflation Consumer Prices Index (CPI) – 12 month % change The UK’s annual rate of inflation rose to 5.2% in September, its highest level since March 1992. Source: National Statistics website: www.statistics.co.uk 8.5% 1.5% 5.2% 1.8%

8 8 GfK Retail and TechnologyGfK UK - PCA2008 House Prices Average House Price Source: Halifax The overall price decrease in the three months to September was very similar to that in the previous quarter, indicating that the trend rate of decline may be beginning to stabilise. The ongoing pressures on householders' income, combined with the reduction in the availability of mortgage finance, however, mean that market conditions will remain challenging. House prices fell by 1.3% in September. House prices are now 12.4% lower than the same period last year. UK average prices, at £172,108, have returned to where they stood in February 2006. £70k £84k £172k

9 9 GfK Retail and TechnologyGfK UK - PCA2008 Unemployment All Persons 16 and Over - 3 Month Rolling Average The annual rate of growth in average earnings excluding bonuses was 3.6% in August 2008, down 0.1% from the three months to July. The unemployment rate was 5.7% for the three months to August 2008, up 0.2% over the previous quarter and over the year. The number of unemployed people increased by 164,000 over the quarter and by 146,000 over the year, to reach 1.79 million. The number of people in employment for the three months to July 2008 was 29.42 million, down 122,000 over the quarter but up 199,000 over the year. 4.9% 10.3% 5.7% Source: National Statistics website: www.statistics.co.uk

10 10 GfK Retail and TechnologyGfK UK - PCA2008 Comparing Borrowing to Saving Quarterly Gross Borrowing Compared With Quarterly Gross Saving Gross Saving Gross Borrowing Gross borrowing was £48.6bn greater than gross saving during Q1 2008, up from £44.5bn for the same period in 2007. This is an increase of 9.2%. (excludes secured borrowing) £16.2bn £12.3bn £36bn £2.6bn £51.2bn £10bn Source: National Statistics website: www.statistics.co.uk

11 11 GfK Retail and TechnologyGfK UK - PCA2008 GfK Consumer Confidence Index Headline Index First interest rate rise in 3 years Index Figure Annual Moving Average The GfK NOP Consumer Confidence Index has shown a small improvement, rising three points to -32, but it is still 25 points lower than September last year. Research carried out by GfK NOP on behalf of the European Commission 10 -10 -9 -10 -32 -2-4 Start of the credit crunch -35

12 12 GfK Retail and TechnologyGfK UK - PCA2008 Which Sectors Have Driven The Market Year To Date? Year to Date % Growth In Value £32.2bn £2.9bn £7.3bn £2.5bn £1.0bn £0.5bn £8.3bn £2.6bn £1.4bn £5.8bn TOTAL Office IT Telecommunications Photo Automotive DIY/Gardening Major Domestic Appliances Small Domestic Appliances Consumer Electronics Market Value Jan-Sep 2008

13 13 GfK Retail and TechnologyGfK UK - PCA2008 Which Sectors Have Driven The Market Month On Month? Month On Month % Growth In Value £3.3bn £0.3bn £0.8bn £0.3bn £0.1bn £0.05bn £0.8bn £0.3bn £0.1bn £0.6bn TOTAL Office IT Telecommunications Photo Automotive DIY/Gardening Major Domestic Appliances Small Domestic Appliances Consumer Electronics Market Value September 2008

14 14 GfK Retail and TechnologyGfK UK - PCA2008 How Has The Total Durables Market Performed? Month On Month % Growth In Value With 4 months without growth and declines in key gifting categories in the first 3 weeks of October, the outlook for Christmas does not bode well. A drop in demand for high ticket items and large falls in average prices are the biggest factors behind the current falls. A total Durable Goods market in decline since April 2008…

15 15 GfK Retail and TechnologyGfK UK - PCA2008 How Has The IT Sector Performed? Month On Month % Growth In Value Product categories included: slide 25 In the retail segment, the value of most IT categories is seen to decline in August (Monitors -29%, Printers -28%). The value growth of Mobile PCs has driven the market for 2008, however aggressive pricing has decreased the average price by 17% year on year. High sales of Mobile PCs are now coming in at under £300. This has reduced value growth to 6%. Lowest growth this September for IT since 13 months…

16 16 GfK Retail and TechnologyGfK UK - PCA2008 Total IT Great Britain Th. Sales Value GBP Growth % (Year to Date):JanSept08 vs. JanSept07 © by GfK-RT, www.gfkrt.comRG1152551-Total MarketGrowth(E)Val 12M Total 7,6 Desk PCs -4,2 Mobile PCs 19,6 Monitors -2 IT Storage 9 PC Mini-Speakers 9,8 Comm. Dev -7,4 Comm. Cards 12,4 PC Mice 12,9 Keyboards 6,8 Webcameras -2,8 MDD -4,1 MFD 2,9 Printers -15 Scanners 0,2 SOS/PDAs -41,4 Powermanagement 32,6 Electronic Assistants -1,5 Data-Video-Projectors 7,2 Box Software 5,8 TV Card/Tuners -4,9 Digital Photo Frames 49,4 September 2008 Sales Value (Ths.) GBP

17 GfK Retail and TechnologyGfK UK – PCA2008 Contents – PCA UK Economic Overview Corporate market GfK Methodology Independents, Resellers, and System Integrators

18 18 GfK Retail and TechnologyGfK UK - PCA2008

19 19 GfK Retail and TechnologyGfK UK - PCA2008 Corporate market: size of Hardware devices UK Th. Units last 25 months © by GfK-RT, www.gfkrt.comRG-1-Report 1 1.200 1.000 800 600 400 200 0 SEP06OCT06NOV06DEC06JAN07FEB07MAR07APR07MAY07JUN07JUL07AUG07SEP07OCT07NOV07DEC07JAN08FEB08MAR08APR08MAY08JUN08JUL08AUG08SEP08 846,3 981 920,6 809,4 923,7 876,1 957,7 784,6 976,2 879,5 887,2 1.034 948,7 1.087 888,5 960,5 200620072008

20 20 GfK Retail and TechnologyGfK UK - PCA2008 CORPORATE Channels © by GfK-RT, www.gfkrt.com RG1152576-Business only Growth(E)Val 12M Total 0,6 Desk PCs 3,5 Mobile PCs 5,3 Monitors 4,6 IT Storage 0,2 PC Mini-Speakers 13,4 Comm. Dev -4 Comm. Cards 1,3 PC Mice 0,3 Keyboards 2 Webcameras 29,4 MDD 12,5 MFD -2,2 Printers -8,1 Scanners -2,5 SOS/PDAs -44,3 Powermanagement 30,1 Electronic Assistants -20,1 Data-Video-Projectors 4,3 Box Software 10,7 TV Card/Tuners -0,9 Digital Photo Frames 14,8 September 2008 Sales Value (Ths.) GBP Total IT Great Britain Th. Sales Value GBP Growth % (Year to Date): Jan Sept 08 vs. Jan Sept07

21 21 GfK Retail and TechnologyGfK UK - PCA2008 CORPORATE Channels: segmentation GfK International definition LARGE SMALL MEDIUM More than 100 millions € Less than 1 million € Between 1 and 100 millions € More than £ 70 millions Between £0.7 and £70 millions Less than £0.7 millions

22 22 GfK Retail and TechnologyGfK UK - PCA2008 Corporate market: Split between Large, Medium and Small businesses UK Units % last 13 months – All Indirect Corporate Channels 10/2008 © by GfK-RT, www.gfkrt.comRG1152733-SML sizes LARGE MEDIUM SMALL SEP07OCT07NOV07DEC07JAN08FEB08MAR08APR08MAY08JUN08JUL08AUG08SEP08 59,7 35,1 5,2 61,5 34,6 3,8 56,4 38,2 5,4 53,8 39,8 6,4 59,4 35 5,6 52,3 36,4 11,3 57,4 32,4 10,2 54,8 33,5 11,7 56,6 34,3 9,1 62,1 30,8 7,1 57,9 36,2 5,9 57,7 36 6,3 55,9 38,6 5,5

23 23 GfK Retail and TechnologyGfK UK - PCA2008 Product sales mix of IT specialists Corporate Split – Sales Revenue share in % Remark: Sales revenue shares in % Corporate Total Small Medium Large

24 24 GfK Retail and TechnologyGfK UK - PCA2008 GfK Retail and Technology 10/2008 IT HARDWARE Sales Units %,Sales Value % JAN08-SEP08 Great Britain CORPORATE © by GfK-RT, www.gfkrt.comRG-1-Report 1 Sales Units % JAN07-SEP07JAN08-SEP08 Sales Value % JAN07-SEP07JAN08-SEP08 11,8 9,3 14,6 9,6 10 8,4 8,1 5,6 6,7 2,5 3,4 2 1,8 13 10 13,6 10,6 10,4 8,1 7,5 4,9 5,4 3,6 3 1,9 1,5 1,6 8,9 27 9,2 3,9 25,7 6,9 7,6 1,3 1,7 1,5 8,9 28,4 9,6 2,8 26,4 6,6 6,8 1,7 1,3 STORAGE Mobile Computer MONITORS MEMORY MODULES DESK COMPUTERS POINTING DEV COMM.DEVICE KEYING DEV PRINTERS POWERMANAGEMENT COMM. CARDS MM-DEVICES MFD MULTIDISC DRIVE MINISPEAKERS VISUAL CAMS DIGITAL CAMERAS HOUSINGS DATA-/VIDEO-PRO SCANNERS Others

25 25 GfK Retail and TechnologyGfK UK - PCA2008 Key Points Consumer Market: - Important development for “Free” laptop and Netbooks (already 8.7% of the volume in September) - More and more “attach deals” (Box Software, Mice, USB key, …) - Average price in decline: £372 for a Desktop, £394 for a Laptop and £216 for a Netbook this September 2008. Corporate Market: - Focus on Technology and Services - Average price also in decline:£565 for a desktop and £531 for a Laptop this September. - Continuous growth in volume even if less important than the Consumer growth Desktop: A market in decline on a long term, facing the cannibalisation of the laptop market but with month-on-month growth since January 2008 thanks to the BtoB market. PC - Key Points

26 26 GfK Retail and TechnologyGfK UK - PCA2008 PC Total: Growth by channel UK Volume % – all indirect channels – month vs month -21 evolution First free laptop offer

27 GfK Retail and TechnologyGfK UK – PCA2008 Contents – PCA UK Economic Overview Corporate market GfK Methodology Independents, Resellers, and System Integrators

28 28 GfK Retail and TechnologyGfK UK - PCA2008 Retail Audit Methodology in 7 Steps 1. Define Product Groups e.g. PC’s 2. Define Channels e.g. Mass Merchandisers 3. Determine the universe e.g. Identify all the Mass Merchandiser stores in Italy 4. Create a representative sample of the universe Using a universe matrix 6. Quality Check 7. Presentation of Data Information is then provided to clients and retailers 5. Data is collected from retailers and coded

29 29 GfK Retail and TechnologyGfK UK - PCA2008 MM = Mass Merchandiser CES = Consumer Electronic Store CS = Computer Shop OER= Office Equipment Retailer TCS= Telecom Specialists CONSUMER CHANNEL= MM + CES + CS + OER + TCS BUSINESS CHANNEL= IT RESELLER + IT MAIL ORDER CONSUMER CHANNEL Book Stores, DIY, Supermarkets, Car Accessory Shops Makro, Tesco, Asda, Argos, Amazon, Halfords, John Lewis, Play.com, Pixmania … MMCESCS/OER/TCS End-User Tracked by GfK Dabs4Work, Insight, PC World Bus, Micro Warehouse, W Store... Centerprise, SCC, Elcom, Computacenter, XMA... Dealers VAPS IT RESELLER BUSINESS CHANNEL IT MAIL ORDER Micro Anvika, PC World, Dabs.com, E-Buyer Maplin, RS Components... Staples, Supplies Team... CPW, The Link, Phone 4U Universe: 2539Universe: 5503Universe: 15130Universe: 6936Universe: 1530 Computer Specialists / Office Equipment Retailers / Telecom Specialists Comet, Currys, Currys Digital, Empire Direct, Richer Sounds... Jessops, Photo Optix... Electrical Independents and Multiples, Photo Specialists GfK UK – IT Channel Structure

30 30 GfK Retail and TechnologyGfK UK - PCA2008 GfK Tracked IT Product Groups PC Scanners Communication Devices Visual Cams NG Box Software Electronic Assistants IT Storage Housing Minispeakers Keying Devices Media Gateway Digital Photo Frames Monitors Pointing Devices Projectors Multimedia Cards Memory Elements Power Management Gaming Devices Multi Disk Drives Small Organising Solutions Communication Cards Smartphones

31 GfK Retail and TechnologyGfK UK – PCA2008 Contents – PCA UK Economic Overview Corporate market GfK Methodology Independents, Resellers, and System Integrators

32 32 GfK Retail and TechnologyGfK UK - PCA2008RESELLER ADSL, Gadgets, PC, Peripherals, Software Scan, Overclockers, Cancom, Stuff ComputerLand, Ebuyer ConsumerPublic SectorCorporate End-User Tracked by GfK OEM, Licence, Retail, Download OEM, Retail, Lease Bundles Hardware DISTRIBUTION Software Computercenter, Basilica, XMA, Ramesys e-Business, Lynx technolgy, Viglen, Greymatter Universe: no.? Infastructure, ASP, Managed Services Compusys, Brightminds, Granada Learning, REM, RM, Softcat, The Consortium, Antec Int SLA’s, Work stations, Network, Licencing GfK UK – IT Channel Panel Future Product Info.

33 33 GfK Retail and TechnologyGfK UK - PCA2008 GfK UK – IT Channel Panel Future Splitting the Channel Into Sectors Adds increased value to the reports for both clients and suppliers Depth in reporting so trends can be analysed in sectors not just categories Changes in business focus needs to be identified Sourcing product definitions Proactive research reduces weaker areas in reporting Improves non boxed coverage GfK can identify new opportunities Wider market awareness

34 34 GfK Retail and TechnologyGfK UK - PCA2008 GfK UK – IT Channel Panel Future Data Exchange Sending Weekly / Monthly Sales Data to GfK GfK give Fit 4 IT news Topview Product Reports Store Audit (where qualified) Summary Economic Overview Chart Pack (where qualified) Detailed reports and presentations available as per member rate card Partly Subsidised PCA Membership

35 35 GfK Retail and TechnologyGfK UK - PCA2008 …Thanks for listening


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