1. Regional Air Quality Analysis: Four Corners
October 22, 2008
Rita Bates
New Mexico Environment Department
Air Quality Bureau

2. Four Corners Overview
Arizona, Colorado, New Mexico, Utah, Navajo Nation, Ute Mountain Ute, Southern Ute Indian Tribe
Federal agencies: NPS, USFS, BLM
San Juan Basin produces 4 billion cubic feet of natural gas daily (1.5 trillion ft3 annually) [2004 survey]
6 to 8% of U.S. Natural Gas production.
California’s largest source of natural gas.
17.6 million TPY coal mined.
Expansive untapped coal, oil and gas reserves.
7 Class I areas within 250 km

3. Four Corners Air Quality Task Force
Began meeting November 2005
Approximately 250 members and interested parties
Task Force Report final version released November 2007
Report includes mitigation options developed by task force members
Over 500 pages

4. Four Corners Class I Areas
Utah
Colorado
Arizona
New Mexico

5. Energy Generation 3840 megawatts of existing coal fired power
Proposed 1500 MW Desert Rock Energy Facility coal-fired power plant
Economic pressure to develop resource
Active environmental community

6. Oil and Gas Production
18,000 existing oil and gas wells in New Mexico part of San Juan Basin
10,000 projected for next 20 years in NM
Many small unpermitted sources
Multiple operators
Changing field conditions

7. Oil & Gas Wells in Four Corners (as of 2003)

9. NM Action on Oil & Gas Production
Statutory stringency limitations on new regulations.
Existing Engines: NM is evaluating the need for new regulations. Has worked with BLM to incorporate a limit in the Permit to Drill COA
New Engines: EPA New Source Performance Standard (NSPS) Subpart JJJJ Summary
San Juan VISTAS program
3 partners who have pledged to voluntarily reduce some emissions leading to ozone, haze, & climate change
Continued inventory and modeling work

10. Four Corners Agency Action Oil & Gas Production
Federal Land Managers (BLM, FS, NPS), EPA and Tribes are working cooperatively to minimize impacts
BMPs for Tanks
Optimization, Centralization, Co-location
Control of existing/new engines in permits to drill
EPA working on rule/protocol for using Optical imaging for leak detection
Continued inventory and modeling work to ensure region meets federal air quality standards

11. Four Corners Modeling Project Objectives
Model air quality, visibility, deposition impacts of air emissions in the Four Corners region for 2005 & 2018
Evaluate impacts of alternative mitigation strategies
Primary focus on impacts in Mesa Verde and Weminuche Class I areas and surrounding Class II areas.
Very brief background is that the modeling project began summer The Four Corners agencies are contracting Environ to do the study.
Goal of study is to Model criteria pollutants, visibility, and deposition for 2005 & 2018
Evaluate 5 mitigation scenarios

12. Modeling Information Distribution
All modeling work is now anticipated to be complete by Spring 2009
Modeling results will be presented at a Four Corners Air Quality Group (4CAQG) update meeting scheduled for Spring/Early Summer 2009 in Durango, CO at Fort Lewis College
Modeling results will also be made available online,

13. Four Corners Modeling Schedule
Task:
Completion Date:
Completion of 2005 base case runs with model performance evaluations.
End of August 2008
2018 ozone source apportionment (OSAT) model run. (3-4 weeks)
End of November 2008
2018 PM source apportionment (PSAT) run.
Unknown
Use 2018 OSAT and PSAT results to reevaluate the mitigation scenarios. Finalize the mitigation scenarios using more specific source (using Standard Industrial Classification (SIC) code) percent reductions associated with mitigation
Mid December
Mitigation Scenario Modeling
February 2009
Complete Model & Final Report
June 2009

14. 2005 and 2018 Power Plant Emissions

15. 2005 and 2018 Oil & Gas Emissions – NOx

16. 2005 and 2018 Oil & Gas Emissions – VOC

19. Some observations:
4K Oil and Gas annual emissions increase of 10,000 tons NOX
4K Oil and Gas annual emissions increase of 27,000 tons VOC
4K San Juan GS, and 4CPP currently make-up 95%+ of energy production NOx and SO2
4K TOTAL EMISSIONS show a decrease in annual emissions NOx from 2005 – 2018 in 4Corners of 5% (mostly due to reduction in offroad and onroad mobile emissions)
4K TOTAL EMISSIONS show an increase in annual emissions VOC from in 4 Corners of approx 20,000 tons, a 5% increase
4K TOTAL EMISSIONS show a increase in annual emissions SO in 4 Corners of approx 12,000 Tons per year a 28% increase mostly dependent on EGU!. & the basecase assumptions that 4CPP would increase production & that DREF would come online & that some additional future coal-fired production would be required.
Interesting to see that NOx and VOC change is minimal
& even though SO2 may increase...chances are it will be more like 2005 = 2018

20. Ozone Monitoring Sites in Four Corners Area
Number of sites in the area.
Unknown at this point if Dine College site is running.

21. Northwestern New Mexico Air Quality Monitoring
NH3(airport)
NOx
Ozone
PM 2.5
NH3
Met
Waterflow
SO2
NOx
Ozone
Met
PM10
PM2.5
SO2
NOx
Ozone
Met
NMED Air Monitoring website real time data: *Also in process of installing mercury total deposition air monitor at Navajo Lake site 2008
*Four Corners Ammonia study recently published in Journal of Environmental Monitoring

22. A number of sites are above or just below the level of the new standard.
- above = Navajo Lake
- just below = Ute Hwy 550, Shiprock, Canyonlands, Mesa Verde
Trend is slightly upward at Mesa Verde and Canyonlands sites.
Trend is slightly downward at Shiprock Substation and Bloomfield sites.
Ute-Hwy. 550 (Bondad) site was trending down and is now upward.
Ute-Ignacio site was upward before dropping and is now indefinite on a trend.
Navajo Lake trend is to be seen in a few years. (Only 2-years of data so far.)

23. Northwestern New Mexico Air Quality Monitoring
JB clarification (10/8/08): new standard says an exceedance occurs when the three-year average of the 4th highest annual 8-hr average is greater than ppm.  The old standard was given as 0.08 ppm (note two decimal places).  That meant that the standard was exceeded when the three-year average of the 4th highest annual 8-hr average reached ppm. Anything between ppm and ppm would round to 0.08 ppm.  Now there is no longer any rounding taking place.  Once the truncated average is over 0.075, (i.e ), it is an exceedance.
*We have observed relatively high levels of ozone at Navajo Lake site this October & based on a few high days middle of October our 4th highest 8-hour average there this year increased to 77 ppb [Oct 18] (preliminary). 3-yr average exceeds 75 ppb NAAQS at Navajo Lake site.

24. Four Corners Monitoring Information
Monitoring data for our 3 ozone monitors in San Juan County are available online (real time & archived) as well as in summary format showing the annual design values that are compared to the federal standard for attainment status
The 3-year average design values for the NM San Juan County ozone monitors are currently 65, 71, and 77 ppb
Passive ozone studies and other research has been done throughout the area

25. San Juan VISTAS VISTAS History
Voluntary Innovative Strategies for Today’s Air Standards
San Juan VISTAS is a voluntary emission control program administered by the New Mexico Environment Department (NMED) for the improvement of air quality.
VISTAS History
Began in 2005 as a result of EAC work
Modeled after EPA Gas STAR program

26. What’s The Purpose? Prevent pollution
• The purpose of San Juan VISTAS is to identify, promote, and implement practices and technologies to reduce emissions that contribute to ozone, haze, and climate change.

27. Questions? New Mexico Environment Department Air Quality Bureau
Farmington Office Santa Fe
3400 Messina Drive Siler Rd., Bldg. B
Farmington, NM Santa Fe, NM 87507
(505) (505)
Project Websites:
Four Corners Air Quality Group:
Four Corners Modeling Project:
– go to modeling project link
San Juan VISTAS:
Homepage: