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A P R I L 2 0 0 8A P R I L 2 0 0 8 I M G A B O A R D M E E T I N GI M G A B O A R D M E E T I N G Prepayment market update S T R I C T L Y P R I V A T E A N D C O N F I D E N T I A LS T R I C T L Y P R I V A T E A N D C O N F I D E N T I A L
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I M G AI M G A This presentation was prepared exclusively for the benefit and internal use of the JPMorgan client to whom it is directly addressed and delivered (including such client’s subsidiaries, the “Client”) in order to assist the Corporation in evaluating, on a preliminary basis, the feasibility of a possible transaction or transactions and does not carry any right of publication or disclosure, in whole or in part, to any other party. This presentation is for discussion purposes only and is incomplete without reference to, and should be viewed solely in conjunction with, the oral briefing provided by JPMorgan. Neither this presentation nor any of its contents may be disclosed or used for any other purpose without the prior written consent of JPMorgan. The information in this presentation is based upon any management forecasts supplied to us and reflects prevailing conditions and our views as of this date, all of which are accordingly subject to change. JPMorgan’s opinions and estimates constitute JPMorgan’s judgment and should be regarded as indicative, preliminary and for illustrative purposes only. In preparing this presentation, we have relied upon and assumed, without independent verification, the accuracy and completeness of all information available from public sources or which was provided to us by or on behalf of the Client or which was otherwise reviewed by us. In addition, our analyses are not and do not purport to be appraisals of the assets, stock, or business of the Client or any other entity. JPMorgan makes no representations as to the actual value which may be received in connection with a transaction nor the legal, tax or accounting effects of consummating a transaction. Unless expressly contemplated hereby, the information in this presentation does not take into account the effects of a possible transaction or transactions involving an actual or potential change of control, which may have significant valuation and other effects. Notwithstanding anything herein to the contrary, the Client and each of its employees, representatives or other agents may disclose to any and all persons, without limitation of any kind, the U.S. federal and state income tax treatment and the U.S. federal and state income tax structure of the transactions contemplated hereby and all materials of any kind (including opinions or other tax analyses) that are provided to the Client relating to such tax treatment and tax structure insofar as such treatment and/or structure relates to a U.S. federal or state income tax strategy provided to the Client by JPMorgan. JPMorgan’s policies prohibit employees from offering, directly or indirectly, a favorable research rating or specific price target, or offering to change a rating or price target, to a subject Client as consideration or inducement for the receipt of business or for compensation. JPMorgan also prohibits its research analysts from being compensated for involvement in investment banking transactions except to the extent that such participation is intended to benefit investors. IRS Circular 230 Disclosure: JPMorgan Chase & Co. and its affiliates do not provide tax advice. Accordingly, any discussion of U.S. tax matters included herein (including any attachments) is not intended or written to be used, and cannot be used, in connection with the promotion, marketing or recommendation by anyone not affiliated with JPMorgan Chase & Co. of any of the matters addressed herein or for the purpose of avoiding U.S. tax-related penalties. JPMorgan is a marketing name for investment banking businesses of JPMorgan Chase & Co. and its subsidiaries worldwide. Securities, syndicated loan arranging, financial advisory and other investment banking activities are performed by a combination of J.P. Morgan Securities Inc., J.P. Morgan plc, J.P. Morgan Securities Ltd. and the appropriately licensed subsidiaries of JPMorgan Chase & Co. in Asia-Pacific, and lending, derivatives and other commercial banking activities are performed by JPMorgan Chase Bank, N.A. JPMorgan deal team members may be employees of any of the foregoing entities. This presentation does not constitute a commitment by any JPMorgan entity to underwrite, subscribe for or place any securities or to extend or arrange credit or to provide any other services. I M G A B O A R D M E E T I N GI M G A B O A R D M E E T I N G
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Agenda Page I M G AI M G A Outlook for 2008 Market environment Background 1 1 6 13 I M G A B O A R D M E E T I N GI M G A B O A R D M E E T I N G
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I M G AI M G A Prepayments completed ($millions) Energy prepayments began in the 1990s, but interest has surged in the last 24 months Treasury Review No energy prepayments completed *Projects completed 2008 YTD 2 B A C K G R O U N DB A C K G R O U N D
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I M G AI M G A Total = 1800 Bcf How much gas has been prepaid? Municipal utilities use approximately 1800 Bcf of natural gas a year 1 Public gas utilities 1200 Bcf/year Public electric utilities 600 Bcf/year For deals completed in 2006 and 2007, prepaid gas volumes average approximately 330 Bcf/year through 2015, or 19% of total load per annum Municipal Utilities’ Annual Load Profiles Prepaid Volumes Comprise 19% of Total Load ¹Source: Energy Information Administration Total = 1800 Bcf 3 B A C K G R O U N DB A C K G R O U N D
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I M G AI M G A Natural gas prepayments in 2007 FebAprJunAugOct Main Street $528 $527 Main Street $528 $527 Southeast Alabama $907 Southeast Alabama $907 Lower Alabama $383 Lower Alabama $383 Salt River $1,159 Salt River $1,159 Roseville $198 Roseville $198 Long Beach $886 Long Beach $886 PEAK $451 PEAK $451 Main Street $497 Main Street $497 Indiana Bond Bank $309 Indiana Bond Bank $309 TX GAS $1,934 TX GAS $1,934 San Antonio CPS $644 San Antonio CPS $644 SCCPA $500 SCCPA $500 SMUD $758 SMUD $758 Market highlights 15 gas prepayments executed in 2007 - $10.2 billion 10 gas prepayments executed in 2006 - $9.6 billion JPMorgan led the market with $2.2 billion in 2007 Denotes JPMorgan involvement as senior manager, gas supplier, commodity swap counterparty or credit provider JanMarMayJulSepNovDec Central Plains $529 Central Plains $529 4 B A C K G R O U N DB A C K G R O U N D
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I M G AI M G A Gas Prepayment Debt Service Bond Proceeds Fixed Payment Floating Payment Fixed Payment Floating Payment JPMorgan Ventures Tennergy Municipal Bondholders JPMorgan Chase & Co. Guaranty 1 2 3 Review of Tennergy project mechanics IMGA and other participants Gas Index gas minus discount 4 BP North America 3 2 6 Commodity Swap: Tennergy and JPMVEC execute matched gas swaps with BP North America to convert pricing from fixed to a floating Index Guaranty: JPMorgan Chase & Co. unconditionally guarantees JPMVEC’s financial obligations to Tennergy Gas Purchase Agreement: Tennergy pays JPMorgan Ventures (JPMVEC) upfront for a 20 year supply of firm natural gas Bond issuance: To finance the prepayment, Tennergy sells tax- exempt debt secured only by revenues from the project, non- recourse to the Participants Gas Supply Agreement: Tennergy delivers daily gas volumes to IMGA and the other participants in exchange for a floating Index price less a discount and annual refund 1 Floating Payment Gas BP Energy 6 4 Source of gas: JPMVEC enters into a 20 year physical natural gas supply contract with BP Energy Annual Refund 5 5 5 B A C K G R O U N DB A C K G R O U N D
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Agenda Page I M G AI M G A Outlook for 2008 Market environment Background 6 1 6 13 I M G A B O A R D M E E T I N GI M G A B O A R D M E E T I N G
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I M G AI M G A Prepayments depend of several value drivers Increase in interest rates should produce greater savings MMD/LIBOR relationship is at its lowest since June 2003 As spread widens, prepayment savings will increase Interest Rates Tenor Longer prepayments typically result in greater savings by capturing more of the taxable vs. tax-exempt differential Savings are not always linear Natural Gas Prices Absolute levels could be higher but stability has been helpful Higher gas prices increase the value of a prepayment Shape of forward curve could be more contango Lower near-term pricing and less backwardation will support prepayment savings Prepaid Gas Volumes Seasonal sculpting can increase savings Increasing prepaid volume later in the project will also improve savings (backloading) Credit Markets Tax-exempt prepayment bond spreads are likely to remain wide Subprime exposure has pushed supplier credit spreads wider and even resulted in credit rating downgrades for some ? ? ? 7 M A R K E T E N V I R O N M E N TM A R K E T E N V I R O N M E N T
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I M G AI M G A High interest rate environment is generally more favorable Spread between taxable and tax-exempt rates is a primary value driver Historically, the spread between tax-exempt and taxable rates widens as rates rise Wider tax-exempt/taxable spreads, or a lower MMD/LIBOR ratio, improves project savings Market movements have been severe in 2008, but have recently improved Historical 10-year AAA MMD vs. 10-year LIBOR 1 MMD & LIBOR Rates LIBOR/MMD Spreads 1 Reflects market conditions as of April 21, 2008 Optimal environment: High rates and high spread between MMD and LIBOR 8 M A R K E T E N V I R O N M E N TM A R K E T E N V I R O N M E N T
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I M G AI M G A Ultimately, it is the combination of interest rates and credit spreads that are a key factor Illustration - Taxable funding levels vs. tax-exempt prepayment pricing Gas supplier’s cost of capital is a function of LIBOR plus a specific credit spread Municipal issuer’s cost of capital is a function of MMD plus a specific credit spread LIBOR Credit Spread MMD Credit Spread Prepayment Value VS. 9 M A R K E T E N V I R O N M E N TM A R K E T E N V I R O N M E N T
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I M G AI M G A Gas suppliers’ credit spreads have increased sharply since August 2007 As financial institutions have taken over $206 billion of write- downs on their exposure to subprime mortgages These write-downs created anxiety among investors and, in part, led to investors demanding increased credit spreads Source: The Wall Street Journal, 01/18/08 5Y Credit default swap spreads (bps) Source: JPMorgan DataQuery, as of April 15, 2008 10 M A R K E T E N V I R O N M E N TM A R K E T E N V I R O N M E N T
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I M G AI M G A As supplier credit spreads have increased, so have credit spreads for prepayment bonds Source: JPMorgan DataQuery, as of April 15, 2008. Spreads to MMD. 10Y MMD vs. the spreads of prepayment bonds Spreads (bps) MMD Rates Prepayment bond ratings are based primarily on gas supplier’s credit Prepayment bond credit spreads in some cases have increased more on a percentage basis than gas suppliers credit spreads have increased 11 M A R K E T E N V I R O N M E N TM A R K E T E N V I R O N M E N T
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I M G AI M G A NYMEX natural gas curve as of April 23, 2008 Gas market dynamics appear stable The stability in gas prices, especially compared to the rates and credit markets, has been conducive to the execution of prepayments A gas curve that is more contango would create more savings Natural gas prices are notoriously unpredictable due to their correlation with weather *JPMorgan forecast as of March 10, 2008 12 M A R K E T E N V I R O N M E N TM A R K E T E N V I R O N M E N T
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Agenda Page I M G AI M G A Outlook for 2008 Market environment Background 13 1 6 I M G A B O A R D M E E T I N GI M G A B O A R D M E E T I N G
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I M G AI M G A Outlook for balance of 2008? Taxable vs Tax-Exempt Rates Tax-Exempt Prepayment Bond Spreads Gas Supplier’s Cost of Capital Investor Demand and Market Access Alternative Funding Structures Absolute Level of Interest Rates 14 O U T L O O K F O R 2 0 0 8O U T L O O K F O R 2 0 0 8
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I M G AI M G A Interest rates expected to trend slightly higher Interest Rate Forecast (%) Economic Data 1 (%ch q/q, saar, unless otherwise noted) 1 Data as of 4/18/2008 * Q4/Q4 change JPMorgan economic forecast 15 O U T L O O K F O R 2 0 0 8O U T L O O K F O R 2 0 0 8
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I M G AI M G A Supplier credit spreads have shown some improvement 5Y Credit default swap spreads (bps) Source: JPMorgan DataQuery, as of April 15, 2008 16 O U T L O O K F O R 2 0 0 8O U T L O O K F O R 2 0 0 8
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I M G AI M G A The MMD/LIBOR relationship has rebounded from extreme levels The spread on 10 year MMD vs. 10 year LIBOR bottomed at just 11 basis points from a high of nearly 170 basis points on July 6 th, it has since rebounded by approximately 60 basis points Though the future is uncertain, market movement in recent weeks is encouraging 2008 10-year AAA MMD vs. 10-year LIBOR 1 MMD & LIBOR Rates LIBOR/MMD Spreads 1 Reflects market conditions as of April 15, 2008 Low of 11 bps 17 O U T L O O K F O R 2 0 0 8O U T L O O K F O R 2 0 0 8
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I M G AI M G A What does this mean for prepayments? Potential for continued market improvement and project execution MMD vs. LIBOR spread Supplier credit spreads Prepayment bond spreads Is investor demand returning to the fixed rate bond market? Long term market seeing some strength Size constraints improving Can additional projects get done with variable rate financing structure? Credit availability Prepaid supplier funding considerations Additional termination events Prepayment market depends on future market technicals and economic news Municipal market supply/demand Tax-exempt vs. taxable ratios News/earnings reports for investment banks/commercial banks Overall credit cycle 18 O U T L O O K F O R 2 0 0 8O U T L O O K F O R 2 0 0 8
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I M G AI M G A Tennergy project team Lance Etcheverry – 214-965-3722 lance.s.etcheverry@jpmorgan.com Melissa Houskamp – 904-305-4888 melissa.l.houskamp@jpmorgan.com Robert Servas – 212-834-7155 robert.c.servas@jpmorgan.com McKee Nelson Doug Bird – 917-777-4666 dbird@mckeenelson.com JPMorgan Ventures Energy Chris Calger – 212-834-2036 christopher.f.calger@jpmorgan.com Mark Lenczowski – 212-648-0285 mark.lenczowski@jpmorgan.com J.P. Morgan Securities Inc. BP Corporation North America Troy Black – 281-366-4733 troy.black@bp.com Don Black – 281-366-6993 donald.black@bp.com Bass, Berry & Sims Mark Mamantov – 865-521-0365 mmamantov@bassberry.com Russ Miller – 615-742-7778 rmiller@bassberry.com Tennergy Corporation Philip Bell – 731-422-7212 pbell@tennergy.com Mechele Williams – 731-422-7254 mwilliams@tennergy.com Hunton & Williams Darrell Smelcer – 404-888-4209 dsmelcer@hunton.com Lynn Gavin – 404-888-4273 lgavin@hunton.com 19 O U T L O O K F O R 2 0 0 8O U T L O O K F O R 2 0 0 8
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