1. Enforcement responses to wildlife crime: What works? Aidan Keane University of Edinburgh aidan.keane@ed.ac.uk Beyond Enforcement, 26 th -28 th February 2015 Glenburn Lodge, Muldersdrift, South Africa

2. Outline Broad-scale, comparative evidence When should enforcement work in theory? Issues with existing evidence base

3. Enforcement is important Species change in PAs 42 studies, 35 papers Geldmann et al. (2013)

4. Enforcement is important Enforcement and forest commons 15 years, 9 countries, 152 cases. Chhatre & Agrawal (2008)

5. Benefits Direct costs Opportunity costs Enforcement costs --- A model for the “conservation toolkit” (Rational) target assumed to maximise:

6. Benefits Direct costs Opportunity costs Enforcement costs --- A model for the “conservation toolkit” (Rational) target assumed to maximise: Alternative livelihoods Enforcement Demand reduction Attitude change

7. Benefits Direct costs Opportunity costs Cost of sanction X Probability of sanction --- When should enforcement work? Benefits of ‘crime’ are low cf rhino and elephant poaching, now and in 1980s

8. Benefits Direct costs Opportunity costs Cost of sanction X Probability of sanction --- When should enforcement work? Social sanctions and opportunity costs are high e.g. Namibian conservancies?

9. Benefits Direct costs Opportunity costs Cost of sanction X Probability of sanction --- When should enforcement work? Sufficient capacity / resources

10. Benefits Direct costs Opportunity costs Cost of sanction X Probability of sanction --- When should enforcement work? …but: Opportunities for corruption May undermine legitimacy Cannot exceed ability to pay! When sanctions are high cf shoot to kill policies in 1980s Zimbabwe?

11. Benefits Direct costs Opportunity costs Cost of sanction X Probability of sanction --- When should enforcement work? When sanctioning process is quick and efficient Time discounting? cf court system in India

12. But… Still lack detailed empirical evidence base Difficult to answer: How should I distribute patrol effort to achieve X, Y and Z? How large should my patrol teams be? How much should I invest in enforcement vs. outreach?

13. Why are these questions hard to answer? Illegal activities difficult to study Existing evidence comes from: Observations (e.g. market data/remote sensing) Surveys (incl. RRT, UCT) Enforcement data e.g. MIST, SMART, Event Book

14. Snare density Patrol effort Snares detected Snares reported GEOGRAPHICAL & EFFORT BIAS DETECTION BIAS REPORTING BIAS Interpreting enforcement data

15. Keane et al. (2011) J. Appl. Ecol. 48: 1164–1173 Interpreting enforcement data

16. Keane et al. (2011) J. Appl. Ecol. 48: 1164–1173 Interpreting enforcement data

17. Keane et al. (2011) J. Appl. Ecol. 48: 1164–1173 Interpreting enforcement data

18. Keane et al. (2011) J. Appl. Ecol. 48: 1164–1173 Interpreting enforcement data Deterrence = effectiveness

19. Conclusions Comparative evidence that enforcement is important component of conservation interventions Can make informed assumptions about conditions for effectiveness …but detailed empirical evidence base still lacking Role for adaptive management?