1. UFUFUFUF James S. Tulenko Professor, University of Florida Director, Laboratory for Development of Advanced Fuels and Materials President, ANS ANS Chapter, Raleigh Eastern Carolinas Section Thursday, Dec. 2, 2004 James S. Tulenko Professor, University of Florida Director, Laboratory for Development of Advanced Fuels and Materials President, ANS ANS Chapter, Raleigh Eastern Carolinas Section Thursday, Dec. 2, 2004 Nuclear Energy and the Environment

2. UFUFUFUF The American Nuclear Society The Society for the Advancement of Nuclear Science and Technology to Benefit Humanity The Society for the Advancement of Nuclear Science and Technology to Benefit Humanity

3. UFUFUFUF Founded Dec., 1954 at the National Academy of Sciences in D.C.Founded Dec., 1954 at the National Academy of Sciences in D.C. Founded as non-profit, international, scientific and educational organization.Founded as non-profit, international, scientific and educational organization. Integrates all disciplines of nuclear science and technology.Integrates all disciplines of nuclear science and technology. Founded Dec., 1954 at the National Academy of Sciences in D.C.Founded Dec., 1954 at the National Academy of Sciences in D.C. Founded as non-profit, international, scientific and educational organization.Founded as non-profit, international, scientific and educational organization. Integrates all disciplines of nuclear science and technology.Integrates all disciplines of nuclear science and technology. The American Nuclear Society

4. UFUFUFUF 11,000 individual members 800 (7%) outside the United States800 (7%) outside the United States 47 countries represented47 countries represented 8% under 35; 15% over 668% under 35; 15% over 66 ~700 with less than 5 years experience~700 with less than 5 years experience Under 35 group increased by ~40% from 1999 to todayUnder 35 group increased by ~40% from 1999 to today 11,000 individual members 800 (7%) outside the United States800 (7%) outside the United States 47 countries represented47 countries represented 8% under 35; 15% over 668% under 35; 15% over 66 ~700 with less than 5 years experience~700 with less than 5 years experience Under 35 group increased by ~40% from 1999 to todayUnder 35 group increased by ~40% from 1999 to today

5. UFUFUFUF ANS Goals To be the recognized leader for the advancement of nuclear science and technology.To be the recognized leader for the advancement of nuclear science and technology. To be members’ primary resource for professional development and knowledge exchange.To be members’ primary resource for professional development and knowledge exchange. To be publicly recognized as a credible source of nuclear science and technology information.To be publicly recognized as a credible source of nuclear science and technology information. To be an active contributor to, and participant in, nuclear science and technology issues.To be an active contributor to, and participant in, nuclear science and technology issues. To be the recognized leader for the advancement of nuclear science and technology.To be the recognized leader for the advancement of nuclear science and technology. To be members’ primary resource for professional development and knowledge exchange.To be members’ primary resource for professional development and knowledge exchange. To be publicly recognized as a credible source of nuclear science and technology information.To be publicly recognized as a credible source of nuclear science and technology information. To be an active contributor to, and participant in, nuclear science and technology issues.To be an active contributor to, and participant in, nuclear science and technology issues.

6. UFUFUFUF Membership: Membership Membership14,96910,5909,663 Students Students 1,572 1,572 694 6941,110 Total Total16,54111,28410,773 American Nuclear Society 1993 1998 2003

7. UFUFUFUF ANS on the Move Golden Anniversary: 1954-2004 Golden Anniversary: 1954-2004 Membership has increased for the first time in many years. Membership has increased for the first time in many years. Bottom Line: ANS is Growing after years of decline. Bottom Line: ANS is Growing after years of decline. Golden Anniversary: 1954-2004 Golden Anniversary: 1954-2004 Membership has increased for the first time in many years. Membership has increased for the first time in many years. Bottom Line: ANS is Growing after years of decline. Bottom Line: ANS is Growing after years of decline.

8. UFUFUFUF Abundant Energy Is the daily bread of civilizationIs the daily bread of civilization Drives the economyDrives the economy Drives the quality of lifeDrives the quality of life Frees man to be creativeFrees man to be creative Is the daily bread of civilizationIs the daily bread of civilization Drives the economyDrives the economy Drives the quality of lifeDrives the quality of life Frees man to be creativeFrees man to be creative

9. UFUFUFUF Let There Be Light

10. UFUFUFUF Nuclear Energy – A Key Player In The U.S. Energy Mix Nuclear industry more efficient with improved economic competitiveness. Now 20% of electricity in U.S.Nuclear industry more efficient with improved economic competitiveness. Now 20% of electricity in U.S. Advanced designs will be much safer and cheaper, fuel meltdowns impossible.Advanced designs will be much safer and cheaper, fuel meltdowns impossible. Growing public awareness of the environmental benefits of nuclear.Growing public awareness of the environmental benefits of nuclear. Public approval is growing – now at 65%; 85% for technically educated college grads.Public approval is growing – now at 65%; 85% for technically educated college grads. The future of nuclear energy is very bright.The future of nuclear energy is very bright. Nuclear industry more efficient with improved economic competitiveness. Now 20% of electricity in U.S.Nuclear industry more efficient with improved economic competitiveness. Now 20% of electricity in U.S. Advanced designs will be much safer and cheaper, fuel meltdowns impossible.Advanced designs will be much safer and cheaper, fuel meltdowns impossible. Growing public awareness of the environmental benefits of nuclear.Growing public awareness of the environmental benefits of nuclear. Public approval is growing – now at 65%; 85% for technically educated college grads.Public approval is growing – now at 65%; 85% for technically educated college grads. The future of nuclear energy is very bright.The future of nuclear energy is very bright.

11. UFUFUFUF Dramatic Increase in Output 790,000 576,862 640,440 673,702 727,915 550,000 600,000 650,000 700,000 750,000 800,000 850,000 199019941998 199920002005 Equal to 23 new 1,000-MW plants Equal to  4 new 1,000-MW plants 753,900

12. UFUFUFUF Nuclear Costs are at an All-Time Low (in constant 2001 cents/kWh) Source: RDI /EUCG for Nuclear data, RDI/EUCG for Fossil Fuels. Converted to 2001 dollars by NEI

13. UFUFUFUF NUCLEAR POWER FACTS Worldwide: (36 Countries) 441 Reactors, 2574 terawatt hours 31 Reactors under construction (several more ordered) 17% of world’s electricity NorthAmerica: 118 Reactors, 118 Gigawatts (103 in U.S. = 20% of electricity 15 in Canada = 12% of electricity)

14. UFUFUFUF Electricity Price, 1970-2025 (2001 cents/kilowatt hour) 197019801990200020102025 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 HistoryProjections AEO2003 AEO2002 19702025 Average nominal price 1.7 12.1

15. UFUFUFUF Nuclear Capacity Factors: All-Time High Source: Platts World Nuclear Performance, February 2003 79.5% in 1998 86.8% in 1999 89.6% in 2000 90.7% in 2001 91.9% in 2002

16. UFUFUFUF Growth In Electric Demand for Developing Countries

17. UFUFUFUF Factors Motivating Use Of Nuclear Power In China

18. UFUFUFUF Top 10 Nuclear Countries (1999 Generation) billion kilowatt-hours Measured by generation, U.S. nuclear program is:  as large as France and Japan (#2 and #3) combined; and  larger than the other 7 nations in the top 10 combined Source: IAEA

19. UFUFUFUF World Energy Consumption 1970-2025

20. UFUFUFUF How Do We Get Our Energy CoalCoal GasGas OilOil NuclearNuclear HydroHydro CoalCoal GasGas OilOil NuclearNuclear HydroHydro

21. UFUFUFUF Energy Output From Various Fuels TYPE FUEL (1kg) FIREWOODCOALOILURANIUM ELECTRICITY PRODUCED (kw-hr) 134 400,000 (once-through) 400,000 (once-through) 7,000,000 (re-cycled U and Pu) (Ref: IAEA Bulletin, Vol. 42, No. 2, 2000)

22. UFUFUFUF World Energy Consumption by Fuel 1970-2025 (quadrillion Btu)

23. UFUFUFUF World Oil Trade: 1973, 2001 and projected 2025

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25. UFUFUFUF China Oil Demand China's oil imports leaped by 40 per cent in the first half of this year. It recently surpassed Japan to become the world's second-biggest oil importer. Its own oil production, once large enough to supply its needs, has fallen into steady decline. By the year 2020, China expects to depend on imported oil for 60 per cent of its oil supply, up from 36 per cent today, leaving it increasingly vulnerable to an oil embargo or an unexpected cutoff of supply..China's oil imports leaped by 40 per cent in the first half of this year. It recently surpassed Japan to become the world's second-biggest oil importer. Its own oil production, once large enough to supply its needs, has fallen into steady decline. By the year 2020, China expects to depend on imported oil for 60 per cent of its oil supply, up from 36 per cent today, leaving it increasingly vulnerable to an oil embargo or an unexpected cutoff of supply..

26. UFUFUFUF China Oil Demand The Chinese government has reportedly drafted a plan to build a 90-day strategic reserve of crude oil -- much bigger than its previous plan for a 30-day stockpile. It is already building 52 massive tanks near the East China Sea, south of Shanghai, to stockpile a month's worth of oil. Each tank would hold more than 25 million gallons.The Chinese government has reportedly drafted a plan to build a 90-day strategic reserve of crude oil -- much bigger than its previous plan for a 30-day stockpile. It is already building 52 massive tanks near the East China Sea, south of Shanghai, to stockpile a month's worth of oil. Each tank would hold more than 25 million gallons.

27. UFUFUFUF World Oil Reserves by Country January 1, 2003

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29. UFUFUFUF World Carbon Emissions by Fossil Fuel 1970-2025

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31. UFUFUFUF Carbon Dioxide Concentrations

32. UFUFUFUF The Earth’s Surface is Warming

33. UFUFUFUF The Earth’s Climate is Changing

34. UFUFUFUF Sea Level Rise Due to Global Warming

35. UFUFUFUF Emissions Avoided By U.S. Nuclear Power Plants 1973 - 2002 NO X 40 million tons SO 2 80 million tons Carbon 3 billion tons

36. UFUFUFUF CO 2 Emissions Fell 2/3 as a Result of French Nuclear Program

37. UFUFUFUF Challenges Facing Nuclear Lower capital cost, and shorter construction time needed.Lower capital cost, and shorter construction time needed. Get on with the waste disposal solution, including recycling spent fuel.Get on with the waste disposal solution, including recycling spent fuel. Government paid insurance – Price Anderson.Government paid insurance – Price Anderson. Lower proliferation threat for worldwide deployment.Lower proliferation threat for worldwide deployment. Gov’t support next generation of reactors.Gov’t support next generation of reactors. Assure adequate trained manpower supply.Assure adequate trained manpower supply. Lower capital cost, and shorter construction time needed.Lower capital cost, and shorter construction time needed. Get on with the waste disposal solution, including recycling spent fuel.Get on with the waste disposal solution, including recycling spent fuel. Government paid insurance – Price Anderson.Government paid insurance – Price Anderson. Lower proliferation threat for worldwide deployment.Lower proliferation threat for worldwide deployment. Gov’t support next generation of reactors.Gov’t support next generation of reactors. Assure adequate trained manpower supply.Assure adequate trained manpower supply.

38. UFUFUFUF Actions to Address Challenges Address security (proliferation) risk of nuclear materials without significantly impacting beneficial use.Address security (proliferation) risk of nuclear materials without significantly impacting beneficial use. Proceed with Yucca Mtn. repository and Advanced Fuel Cycle Initiative to address nuclear waste.Proceed with Yucca Mtn. repository and Advanced Fuel Cycle Initiative to address nuclear waste. Address public fear of nuclear with scientific facts and grassroots personnel involvement.Address public fear of nuclear with scientific facts and grassroots personnel involvement. Develop program to address dwindling nuclear professionals and ANS membership.Develop program to address dwindling nuclear professionals and ANS membership. Address security (proliferation) risk of nuclear materials without significantly impacting beneficial use.Address security (proliferation) risk of nuclear materials without significantly impacting beneficial use. Proceed with Yucca Mtn. repository and Advanced Fuel Cycle Initiative to address nuclear waste.Proceed with Yucca Mtn. repository and Advanced Fuel Cycle Initiative to address nuclear waste. Address public fear of nuclear with scientific facts and grassroots personnel involvement.Address public fear of nuclear with scientific facts and grassroots personnel involvement. Develop program to address dwindling nuclear professionals and ANS membership.Develop program to address dwindling nuclear professionals and ANS membership.

39. UFUFUFUF DOE Investment ($ in Millions) Number of Students Undergraduate Student Enrollment Trends In Enrollment

40. UFUFUFUF Grassroots Initiative Address public fears with scientific facts and by ANS members getting involved in local events, with local media, and Representatives.Address public fears with scientific facts and by ANS members getting involved in local events, with local media, and Representatives.

41. UFUFUFUF Top Challenges for Next Generation Continue professional development / Be Active!Continue professional development / Be Active! Maintain the Safety Culture.Maintain the Safety Culture. Engage local Legislators - Civics 101: Influence the energy awareness of your Representative.Engage local Legislators - Civics 101: Influence the energy awareness of your Representative. Deal with public opinion; changing the “Nuclear Perception.”Deal with public opinion; changing the “Nuclear Perception.” Bring reality into discussions of alternate energy.Bring reality into discussions of alternate energy. Make a difference with your life & your career.Make a difference with your life & your career.

42. UFUFUFUF SUMMARY Nuclear produces 17 to 20% of electricity globally and in U.S. That percentage will grow.Nuclear produces 17 to 20% of electricity globally and in U.S. That percentage will grow. New plants will be ordered in U.S. within 5 yrs.New plants will be ordered in U.S. within 5 yrs. Nuclear is already cleaner and safer than oil, gas, and coal, and has lower operating cost.Nuclear is already cleaner and safer than oil, gas, and coal, and has lower operating cost. Worldwide growth of elec. production will need nuclear to control environmental damage.Worldwide growth of elec. production will need nuclear to control environmental damage. Capital cost will fall to $1,000/megawatt, or lower, in new reactor designs.Capital cost will fall to $1,000/megawatt, or lower, in new reactor designs. Spent fuel (waste) and nuclear weapons proliferation are solvable political problems.Spent fuel (waste) and nuclear weapons proliferation are solvable political problems. Nuclear produces 17 to 20% of electricity globally and in U.S. That percentage will grow.Nuclear produces 17 to 20% of electricity globally and in U.S. That percentage will grow. New plants will be ordered in U.S. within 5 yrs.New plants will be ordered in U.S. within 5 yrs. Nuclear is already cleaner and safer than oil, gas, and coal, and has lower operating cost.Nuclear is already cleaner and safer than oil, gas, and coal, and has lower operating cost. Worldwide growth of elec. production will need nuclear to control environmental damage.Worldwide growth of elec. production will need nuclear to control environmental damage. Capital cost will fall to $1,000/megawatt, or lower, in new reactor designs.Capital cost will fall to $1,000/megawatt, or lower, in new reactor designs. Spent fuel (waste) and nuclear weapons proliferation are solvable political problems.Spent fuel (waste) and nuclear weapons proliferation are solvable political problems.

43. UFUFUFUF The Future “In science, credit goes to the man who convinces the world, not the man to whom the idea first occurs.” “In science, credit goes to the man who convinces the world, not the man to whom the idea first occurs.” Charles Darwin -Hopefully, Dr. James Lovelock will convince the World