1. Knut Espen Solberg 20 October 2009 WP410 Risk and Opportunity Assessment

2. © Det Norske Veritas AS. All rights reserved. WP410 20 October 2009 2 Oceans of Tomorrow Oceans offer opportunities for sustainable economic development. However, human activities are exerting increasing environmental pressure on the oceans, which is threatening marine ecosystems and sustainable maritime activities. In particular, the growing demand for maritime transport, offshore energy, tourism, coastal development, fisheries and aquaculture, security and surveillance pose a major threat to the marine environment.

3. © Det Norske Veritas AS. All rights reserved. WP410 20 October 2009 3 WP410 – Risk Opportunity Assessment Overall objective Quantify and assess the total cross-sector impact of the activities in the arctic, and evaluate possible solutions to reduce impact and improve the sustainability of the activities. Specific Objectives 1.Develop modelling framework for sustainability assessment of Arctic development; including model for evaluating the level of Sustainability for the arctic activity and model for assessing possible measures for improvement. 2.Development of common performance indicators and acceptance criteria. 3.Coordinated data gathering from Theme 3 (impacts). 4.Evaluation of sustainability level and measures for improvement. Input required Theme 3 - WP310, WP320 and WP330 Gives input to WP110, WP120 and WP600

4. © Det Norske Veritas AS. All rights reserved. WP410 20 October 2009 4 Sustainable development Sustainable development seeks to meet the needs and aspiration of the present without compromising the ability to meet those of the future (WCED, 1987)

5. © Det Norske Veritas AS. All rights reserved. WP410 20 October 2009 5 Oceans of Tomorrow Impact Social Impact Economy Impact Environment WP2X0 Theme 2Theme 3Theme 4 Drivers Environment e.g. CO2 Drivers Economy e.g. income Drivers Social e.g. unemployment Inventory

6. © Det Norske Veritas AS. All rights reserved. WP410 20 October 2009 6 WP410 – Risk and Opportunity Assessment Concept for sustainability in the arctic, comprising of three sub-components: environmental, social, economic components – considered across several (generic) economic sectors or activities. WP310WP330WP320

7. © Det Norske Veritas AS. All rights reserved. WP410 20 October 2009 7 Data gathering (per sector) Etc. Analysis & Improvements: Economic Environmental Social Oilspill Evaluate alternatives and quantify performance and cost implications Sustainability Level Concept overview Shipping: Oil/Gas: Tourism: Total Tolerable Intolerable Acceptable

8. © Det Norske Veritas AS. All rights reserved. WP410 20 October 2009 8 Example of WP410-5 Cost benefit analysis

9. © Det Norske Veritas AS. All rights reserved. WP410 20 October 2009 9 WP410 - Overview Task 1. WP410-1 - Develop generic modelling framework for sustainability assessment of arctic development (Leader: DNV, Participants: PIK, BMT) Task 2. WP410-2 - Development of common performance indicators and acceptance criteria (Leader: DNV, Participants: DNV, PIK, UC/AL) Task 3. WP410-3 - Coordinated data gathering from the WP defined in Theme 3, Impact Studies (Leader: PIK, Participants: DNV, PIK, DNIIMF, CEFAS, UU) Task 4. WP410-4 - Calculation of sustainable levels for future scenarios (Leader: PIK, Participants: DNV, PIK, DNIIMF, CEFAS, UU) Task 5. WP410-5 - Evaluation of measures for improvement (Leader: PIV, Participants: PIK, BMT)

10. © Det Norske Veritas AS. All rights reserved. WP410 20 October 2009 10 WP410 – Risk and Opportunity Assessment

11. © Det Norske Veritas AS. All rights reserved. WP410 20 October 2009 11 Safeguarding life, property and the environment www.dnv.com